Mayoral Candidate Danny Sharp: “We Need More Rooftops”

Mayoral Candidates Danny Sharp and current Mayor Joe Winfield have different approaches to “Development”

This was noted at the Greater Oro Valley Chamber of Commerce Candidate Forum of June 28. 

Sharp advocates for the “rooftop strategy”. Winfield does not

Danny Sharp stated at the Forum that Oro Valley needs to bring in on-site retail business in order to grow sales tax revenues.  According to Sharp: “We have to bring in more retail. We don’t have the retail because we need to bring in more rooftops.”

Winfield believes that the General Plan should guide whether variances and general plan amendments should be approved. The Winfield Council abided by the General plan during the past four years. Winfield promised to do so when he ran in 2018 and he did so. Only one general plan amendment was submitted and it was rejected because it did not fit the concept for that area.

The “rooftops strategy” is a revisit to the Hiremath Years

The “rooftops strategy” is a revisit to the Mayor Satish Hiremath years (2010-2018) of leadership. It was his strategy. Hiremath was eager to grow rooftops because he felt it would attract retail business and increase the town’s sales tax revenue. His council, which included current council candidate Bill Rodman and current Council Member Steve Solomon, approved a slew of general plan amendments, converting land into high density residential zoning. His council was so eager to increase rooftops that they approved several general plan amendments before the citizen vote that approved the 2016 “Your Voice, Our Future” general plan was ratified by the Secretary of State.

The “rooftops strategy” added to congestion but did not foster retail business success

As LOVE reported, the Hiremath Council left Oro Valley with a large pipeline of residences to build. As a result, the town’s population has and will continue to grow substantially.  Still, onsite retail struggles in this town before, during and now after the Pandemic. One merely needs to look at the vacancies at the Oro Valley Marketplace and the need for complete revisioning as an example of the failure of this strategy. Indeed, one could reasonably question the feasibility of the “rooftop strategy” in today’s retail world, a world where on-line retailing, a lack of personnel, and huge supply chain issues are plaguing brick and mortar retailers. 

We believe it was the rejection of the “rooftops strategy” that propelled Winfield, Barrett, Jones-Ivey and Nicholson to win the 2018 election, defeating Hiremath and his team. Voters were tired of the congestion that the rooftop strategy has caused.

Sharp will be more aggressive in pursuing growth.

For example, Sharp would have approved the Oro Valley Marketplace revisioning as presented 

Sharp blames Winfield for not approving the Oro Valley Marketplace revisioning as presented to council.

Sharp stated at the Forum: “When people propose projects we need to be sensitive to the fact that this costs them money. We need to be sensitive…We should have told Town West years ago that what they were proposing would not be approved and that they needed to come up with something that fits within the town’s framework.”

What was presented to council was vetted by town staff in detail, vetted at neighborhood meetings, vetted by the Planning and Zoning Commission, and vetted at a public hearing before council. This is the town’s process. There was no opportunity for the Council to tell Town West anything because the council can only discuss the project together in public at a hearing after this process has been completed. 

After all this, however, what was presented to council-15 exceptions to code, 75 foot tall buildings, and minimal road setbacks- was “not in character” with the town. Still, the council wanted to shape this project because the Oro Valley Marketplace is a commercial disaster; so they continued the application as opposed to rejecting it.

We believe that it is reasonable to conclude that Sharp would have approved the project as presented because the developer had invested so much into it and because the project had gone through a long process.

Sharp does agree with Winfield in one area. According to Sharp, speaking at the forum: “If [a developer] brings in something that is not in character with the town, we need to find a compromise to get to ‘Yes.’”That is exactly what Winfield did. In June, Town West, the owner of the Marketplace, presented a new plan that is more in line with existing codes and the character of the town . It is a revised plan that both Sharp and Winfield said they would support.

 "The properties currently under consideration for annexation

by the Town of Oro Valley are the two State Land‐ owned sites

indicated on the map below, referred to as Tangerine North

(302 acres), and Tangerine South (550 acres)."

Sharp will vigorously pursue the annexation of the Tangerine State Lands

Both Sharp and Winfield agree that town should annex the Tangerine Road State Lands. This is 852 acres, split into two portions (panel left). Sharp asserts that it should have happened long ago because he worked on it with State Lands when he was interim town manager (June 2016 to September 2017). 

However, as stated by Winfield and as reported in LOVE, the State discontinued conversation with the town in July of 2019 because State Lands was short of staff. They were to continue discussions in November of that year but failed to do so. Sharp would seek to restart these discussions immediately. The town’s annexation plan calls for seeking this annexation in the near term.

…Though not all residents want this annexation

It is not at all clear that residents want the town to annex these lands and open them for development. Annexation and development of these lands met significant opposition from residents when presented at neighborhood meetings.

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Bits and Pieces

Council to consider HOA agreements to help support town golf operations next Wednesday
"In October 2019, the Town Council approved a motion that provided certain conditions and parameters by which the Town would continue to operate and invest in the Town's golf courses. One of the provisions stated:

'The Canada Hills HOA will contribute up to $100k annually to reduce the tax support necessary for the 36 hole option to include the Conquistador and Canada courses. This will be for a 10 year period limited to 10% of the town’s audited figures for the previous year’s tax support needs. The Villages of La Canada will contribute $25k per year under the same conditions as the Canada Hills HOA. Payments will be made quarterly, beginning July 1, 2020.'"

The Town Manager and Town Attorney negotiated with the representatives of the two HOA's, resulting in the agreement attached. The agreement provides for a 10-year period with contributions of the $100,000 and $25,000 specified in the motion, but removing the limitations the motion established to no more than 10% of the town's audited figures for the previous year's tax support needs, and instead securing the full contribution for five years with an opportunity to renegotiate additional contributions in year 5 of the agreement.

The agreement further stipulates the Town's commitment to abide by the other provisions of the Council's motions on October 2 and November 6, 2019. It further provides for the possibility of extending the irrigation investment in the courses one additional year due to the pandemic, should that be necessary." (source)
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Click to enlarge

Council to discuss annexation strategy next Wednesday
The Oro Valley Town Council will discuss an annexation strategy in special session next Wednesday.
The strategy has annexation targets as detailed in the graphic at right. (source) Read our LOVE March 23 article on annexation here.
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Candidates participate in Jim Horne's Town Hall
The five candidates for Oro Valley's three council seats participated in a Zoom.us town hall last evening. Oro Valley resident Jim Horne, author of the Jim Horne's Oro Valley Podcast, was the moderator. The purpose of the town hall was for each candidate to discuss their candidacy with the public. There was no debate or cross discussion. Watch the town hall here.
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Council to discuss "Primary Employer Incentive Program" next Wednesday
"The purpose of the Primary Employer Incentive Program is to help enable long-term financial sustainability in Oro Valley through the creation of new primary job opportunities and the generation of new capital investments in the Town. In accordance with the economic development goals embodied in the voter-approved General Plan, the Town Council's Strategic Leadership Plan and the Council approved Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy, this program is proposed to assist Oro Valley in its efforts to attract high quality primary job opportunities and new capital investment to the community. If approved by Council, the Town of Oro Valley may offer different incentives such as fee reductions or reimbursement of other eligible expenses, depending on the nature of the project. Reimbursement amounts will be restricted to the amount of construction sales tax and related fees collected by the Town in association with the project.

These incentive reimbursements will help offset qualifying expenditures by the primary employer such as required new public infrastructure improvements, which could include partial offsets to impact fees, employee relocation and qualified job training programs, exterior building aesthetics and renovation expenses. The program aims to encourage the retention and expansion of existing primary employers. Additionally, the program will help attract new primary employers to the Town." (source)
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Bits and Pieces

Dispose-A-Med this Saturday at the Target Plaza
Dispose-A-Med
Saturday, October 26
10 AM to 2 PM
Oro Valley Target
10555 N Oracle Road

Bring your unused or expired prescriptions and over-the-counter medications. They will dispose of them for you. They accept only pills. They no longer accept liquids, syringes, or inhalers. Please keep pills in their original containers.

Bins will be provided for you to drop off the medications.

Do not bring batteries, household hazardous waste, or veterinary medications.

Mayor Winfied offers: "State of the Town"
Mayor Winfield addressed the Chamber of Commerce last week. He gave his "State of the Town" speech. His speech featured the town's strategic plan, a plan he observed was build from the General Plan. Also speaking at the event were the town economic czar, JJ Johnston: Kristy Diaz-Trahan, Parks and Recreation Director; and Police Chief Chief Danny Sharp.  The Greater Oro Valley Chamber of Commerce hosted this fundraiser  at the El Conquistador resort. You can watch and read his remarks here.

State Lands Annexation is back
"The Arizona State Land Department is planning to renew talks with Oro Valley next month regarding the annexation of 885 acres of state trust land on either side of Tangerine Road." according to the Arizona Daily Star. This happens after the department told the town on July 31 that they were too busy to pursue annexation discussion with the town. What could have happened to change their minds so quickly?

According to the article, a representative of the Department stated that they had not been talking with Marana about this annexation. Why, indeed, would they even say that? Would it be, perhaps, that they explored the idea with Marana and found out that Oro Valley is the only town that can possibly deliver water to this area? LOVE, of course, will follow this as it develops.

The question is: How big do you want your town?

Its a seller's market for Oro Valley's homes
Long Realty's October report observes that Oro Valley is now a seller's market for homes under $1million. For most years, Oro Valley homes have been a buyer's market. This is a good time to sell if you want to get out of town. 

State Puts Annexation On Hold

Annexation on hold
The State Land Department informed the Town Of Oro Valley that it is suspending discussion of this annexation until some later point in time. 

Lack of staffing to handle process
The reason given is lack of State Land Department staffing.

"Unfortunately, due to several staff vacancies, including the project manager assigned to Oro Valley, the Department has elected to put this project on hold for the time being." Instead, they will focus on "...other priority work." (Letter to Town Of Oro Valley from State Land Department, July 31, 2019)

Will be revisited in the future
The project is not gone, however: "We still do intend to follow up on the project at some point in the future."

Contentious issue for many residents
The annexation of these state lands and the conversion of these lands to large tract housing has been a contentious issue in Oro Valley. Oro Valley is the only community that can do anything by annexing this land because it is the only community that can provide water to it. As we have reported, Marana does not want it.

Read more on this annexation here.

Guest View: Jim Tripp ~ The Rest of the Iceberg. Part 2: Do State Land Department Site Specific Plans Help or Hurt K-12 Education Funding?

Bankruptcy is achieved by habitually incurring expenses in excess of revenues. Despite having been granted 9.3 million acres of Federal land to sell and lease in order to fund K-12 education, the Arizona State Land Department (ASLD) still cannot generate enough revenue to cover costs. How severe is the gap?

• Local school districts were recently forced to sue the state for adequate funding

• From 1966 to 2006, AZ dropped from 130% of the national average to 80% in K-12 education expenditures (Chart 12, p. 33)

• AZ currently now ranks 48th in K-12 education funding and many quality metrics (pp. 5, 6, 43, 44, 50, 53 in the above link)

How did ASLD manage to fail so miserably in its purpose? By getting the green light from the courts to seek maximum selling price for K-12 Trust Lands, regardless of K-12 funding liabilities incurred during rezoning for highest price. This legal policy has enriched real estate developers, but impoverished school districts.

Case in Point: the Annexation at Tangerine and Thornydale
The Site Specific Plan for the Tangerine and Thornydale annexation (page 75) says that 1,767 K-12 students will be added to the Marana School District if Oro Valley should annex and develop the land using the recommended zoning. I wondered why the Marana Unified School District (MUSC) would accept such a burden and, after multiple discussions with different officials, I got the answer: MUSC will get its ~$8500/student/year from the State, or ~$15 million/year, regardless of the selling price of this tract of land.

Where will this ~$15 million/year come from? Well, if the ~3100 houses in the plan pay a similar school tax to me in Sky Ranch, each household will contribute ~$1400/yr in school taxes, for a total of ~$4.3 million. That means, for this annexation to make financial sense for K-12 education, the revenue stream from the sale of the land needs to be ~$10.7 million/year.

What selling price is required to generate annual interest revenue of $10.7 million/year? First, we need to know a safe interest rate, so let’s try 2-4%. At 4% interest, the sale price would need to be $267 million, or ~$302,000/acre, given that the annex is 885 acres in size. At 2%, those figures have to double to $534 million dollars or ~$604,000/acre. Is anyone going to pay ~$300,000 to $600,000/acre for that land?

In my opinion, this is why AZ K-12 education funding is in crisis. The crisis will only deepen, and beneficiaries of the Trust will be more and more harmed, if Site Specific Plans like this are applied to the millions of acres of State Trust Land.

Solution: Future Revenue Stream Must Cover Future Expenses
When ASLD demands aggressive rezoning from a Town in order to achieve the highest selling price for a tract of State Trust Land, ASLD should be required by affected towns and school districts to demonstrate, from its appraisals and data on K-12 education costs, that the predicted future revenue stream will equal the predicted future expense stream. The farce of ASLD simply trumpeting their record-breaking revenue additions through land sales without revealing that it was accomplished by taking on more student expenses than the expected revenue and school tax stream will support has got to stop.

Parting Shot: Don’t Forget Water Liabilities Either
The 860,000 gallons/day required by this plan (p. 75, Water, 2nd paragraph) is another piece of “the rest of the iceberg.” What is going to happen with regard to AZ water demand if this pilot project goes Statewide, with Towns and developers eagerly adopting its aggressive rezoning and entitlement techniques? With Arizona currently under a Drought Contingency Plan, this is, in my opinion, another reason for Oro Valley to reject this pilot plan out of concern for the whole State, and take it up only after the overallocation of the Colorado has been dealt with.

The little-known “pilot plan” aspect of this annexation should have been discussed with the public and their elected officials before trying to push it through a struggling Town approaching buildout.

View the Site Specific Plan HERE
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Jim Tripp has a Bachelor’s degree in Biological Sciences from Cornell University and a Ph.D. in Molecular and Cellular Biology from Oregon State University. Prior to retirement, he was employed as a Federal Regulations Analyst for Wisconsin Power and Light and as a Research Scientist at UC Santa Cruz and Berkeley National Labs. He has over 30 scientific publications to his credit.

Guest View: Jim Tripp ~ The Rest of the Iceberg. Part 1: Fear Mongering by Solomon and Rodman

One June 17th, LOVE published a Guest View by Jim Tripp entitled, “The Tip of the Iceberg.” It included a wealth of previously unknown information on the proposed annexation of State Land at Tangerine and Thornydale including the blatant conflict of interest of two people involved in the project. If you missed it, you can read it HERE

We now present “The Rest of the Iceberg”


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What’s the rest of the iceberg?

Fear Mongering
Take a look at this video of Rodman and this video of Solomon warning the Oro Valley Town Council to rezone the Trust Land at Tangerine and Thornydale to the State’s satisfaction, or suffer the consequences at the hands of the town of Marana.

Rodman video at 31 seconds in:

“We should consider the fact that if we don’t do it, Marana will.  I mean, we’ve heard those words directly.”

Note his stress on the word directly.

Solomon video at 5 seconds in:

“This land will be developed, and the odds are if it’s developed outside of Oro Valley, it’s gonna be at a higher intensity, with less restrictions than what Oro Valley would have, and all that development is going to have an impact on Oro Valley...”

What facts does Solomon have to back up this opinion?

No Need to Fear: Marana Can’t Deliver Water
In a nutshell, I had two lengthy phone conversations with Marana Town Mayor Ed Honea to fact-check Marana’s interest in the Tangerine and Thornydale annexation. Honea said that Marana has no interest whatsoever in the land because Marana cannot deliver an adequate water supply. In contrast, Oro Valley can easily deliver water via two, 12” potable water mains. Honea told Satish Hiremath long ago that Oro Valley was welcome to annex the State Land.

Please visit this facebook post of mine to learn more.

Marana Town Finance Director, Yiannis Kalaitzidis, approached me as I was leaving a Marana Town meeting. He asked what had prompted me to ask a question related to K-12 population projections for Marana. I said that it was in connection with the proposed annexation at Tangerine & Thornydale. During the course of the conversation, he reiterated what Ed Honea had said: only Oro Valley can deliver water to the annex, and if Oro Valley doesn’t annex, it will be decades before Marana can get enough water there to make development economically possible.

So who are the powerful people in Marana who have said directly that Marana will snap up the land and intensely develop it, if Oro Valley doesn’t?

Please visit this facebook post as well.

No Need to Fear: Mayor Honea Respects the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan
During the May 14, 2019 study session on the Marana 2040 General Plan, Mayor Honea fought hard for “low density 2-RAC” (no more than 2 residences per acre) in environmentally sensitive areas like Tangerine from I-10 to Twin Peaks. In defense of continuing the extensive use of “2-RAC” from the 2010 General Plan, rather than pitching it in the 2040 Plan, Honea said:

“When we developed the low density 2-RAC, we had buy-in from the Sonoran Desert Conservation Group, Carolyn Campbell, [and others]; they helped approve that. And you know why, when we developed everything along Twin Peaks, and we did 2-RAC, and we didn’t have the environmental community down our necks, is because they were involved in the process, for the 2-RAC...when you take that away, I can assure you, they will be back.”

You can watch it HERE (Time mark 51:23 on the video)

The Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan was a landmark achievement for Northwest Tucson. When was the last time you heard an Oro Valley Mayor or Council Person worry about the consequences of not honoring that plan? Does anyone in Oro Valley remember that plan? It was never mentioned in any of the meetings I’ve been to in Oro Valley. Ed Honea remembers, and he got the message the first time: don’t antagonize Dove Mountain area citizens with high intensity development.

Dove Mountain Marana citizens are environmentally conscious. In Sky Ranch and at The Preserve, we are fiercely protective of the low-density nature preserves on which we live. We love watching the bobcats, javelinas, coyotes, hawks, and owls that patrol the open spaces beyond our backyards, and we will fight to protect them.

Supply and Demand: Marana Has Plenty of Annex Opportunities Other Than This One
Figure 4, page 2-7 (below) of the current Marana 2040 General Plan shows an ocean of grey shaded land, especially adjacent to I-10 in the North. That’s all vacant and undeveloped land. Marana will have no need, for many decades to come, to force high intensity development at Tangerine and Thornydale.

You can view the Marana 2040 General Plan HERE

Oro Valley has the only game in town when it comes to annexation of the State Trust Land at Tangerine and Thornydale. There is no reason to fear competition from Marana.

Part 2 will be published next Monday.
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Jim Tripp has a Bachelor’s degree in Biological Sciences from Cornell University and a Ph.D. in Molecular and Cellular Biology from Oregon State University. Prior to retirement, he was employed as a Federal Regulations Analyst for Wisconsin Power and Light and as a Research Scientist at UC Santa Cruz and Berkeley National Labs. He has over 30 scientific publications to his credit.

Guest View: Jim Tripp ~ The tip of the iceberg: Annexation of 885 acres of State Trust Land at Tangerine and Thornydale is a pilot project for 9.3 million acres of trust land

Since last August, I have been researching the Arizona State Land Department (ASLD) proposal to put approximately 3100 houses (with their associated cars and people) on the proposed annexation of 885 acres of State Trust Land at Tangerine and Thornydale.

I read the plan and wondered: "Why isn't the CAP Water Board trying to block this development, which will require 860,000 gallons of water day? The Colorado River is already over-allocated, which has led to us being under a Drought Contingency Plan."

Two conflicts of interest uncovered
Oh. Lisa Atkins is the Board President of CAP (Central Arizona Project) as well as Commissioner for ASLD. That would explain it. Although her position at CAP is not a paid position, she does have a conflict of interest as Commissioner of ASLD and CAP Board President. Ironically, Atkins said at "sunset" meetings for the ASLD that any attempt to merge ASLD with another related State department would inevitably lead to conflict of interest because control over different but related natural resources inevitably leads to conflict of interest!

So who is her Deputy Commissioner, I wondered? It’s Wesley Mehl of Tucson. According to the Tucson Sentinel in an article from July 2015, "Mehl is the son of developer, David Mehl, who along with brother George built the La Paloma resort in the Catalina Foothills, and the Dove Mountain development in Marana." That would explain why we are continuing the residential housing boom during deepening drought.

Sacrificing water and ignoring conflicts of interest
But maybe it's all worth it if it improves funding for K-12 education. That's what they said at the public meetings. In fact, they justified the whole project on the basis of a constitutional mandate to sell Trust Land for the benefit of K-12 education.

So I checked that out. Arizona ranks 48th out of 50 in public education funding, and K-12 education is by far the biggest single expenditure in the State budget. The Trust Fund has billions in it, but it costs billions every single year to fund public education. Maybe we need to sacrifice water and look the other way at conflicts of interest if it will help K-12 education.

The math doesn’t add up
So I estimated that the Trust land might sell for something like $100 million, which would perhaps yield 3-4% ($3-4 million dollars per year) on the $100 million. But the plan adds 1,767 K-12 students, at a cost of about $15 million per year (to stay in 48th place), for a net loss of $11-12 million per year.

Why is the Marana School District (where the Oro Valley annexation is taking place) allowing this? Because they will get their $8500 per year per student from the General Fund, even if those students drain the General Fund at $11-12 million per year. State taxes will have to be raised or other services curtailed, to make up this deficit. What an irony, given that the whole point of Trust Land sales was to provide enough money so that K-12 education would never cost taxpayers a dime as Arizona moved from Territory to State!

Marana School District CFO never reviewed the site plan
I contacted Don Contorno, Chief Financial Officer of Marana Unified School District, who wrote a letter of approval to Oro Valley for taking on the students. He wanted to know where I got the outlandish number of 1,767 K-12 students, and I told him that it was from the published Site Specific Plan. He sheepishly confessed that he never read the plan and assumed the area would be developed like Sky Ranch.

A “Model” for future development
ASLD and Oro Valley have not publicized that this is a pilot project to be rolled out for the entire 9.3 million acres of trust land, with a stated goal of speeding development by transferring zoning rights from citizens to developers via "zoning banks."

LOVE readers and residents of Sky Ranch, Tangerine Crossing, and Dove Mountain need to present a united front now and in the future.

You can view a detailed slide presentation HERE

Please visit my Facebook page (MyLand.YourLand.AZ)   HERE
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Jim Tripp has a Bachelor’s degree in Biological Sciences from Cornell University and a Ph.D. in Molecular and Cellular Biology from Oregon State University. Prior to retirement, he was employed as a Federal Regulations Analyst for Wisconsin Power and Light and as a Research Scientist at UC Santa Cruz and Berkeley National Labs. He has over 30 scientific publications to his credit.

Editorial ~ Just Say No

The proposed annexation of the 800+ acres of State land on the west side of Oro Valley has caused a lot of turmoil. Every public/neighborhood meeting is filled with residents and non-residents who are opposed to the planned annexation. Their opposition appears to be primarily focused on the proposed density of the lands. Traffic, water usage, uses not compatible with the surrounding area, and non-compliance to the General Plan sum up the majority of additional objections.

Pre-Annexation Development Agreement (PADA)
The Town has been very vague about the meaning of the Pre-annexation Development Agreement, which is the first vote the Council will take prior to the actual annexation and zoning. If the Council approves the PADA as presented by The WLB Group, is the town then committed to zone the property as per the PADA? We have not received an answer. Instead, the Town provided the attached manual prepared by the Arizona League of Cities and Towns.

[Click to open the document]

As an example of what a PADA can do to modify the Town Code, the Oracle Crossings shopping center at Suffolk and Oracle was initially in the county. Both the county and the town had the property zoned as commercial, so this part was a “no-brainer.” However, there are tall palm trees in front of Kohl’s. These trees are in violation of the Town’s commercial landscape code, but Kohl’s was allowed to keep them due to the PADA.

Let’s assume the Town approves the PADA which includes a lot of land designated as Medium Density Residential (MDR). MDR allows for 2.1 – 5 units per acre. The PADA has it such that the lots are small. Can the Town allow for MDR, but modify the PADA to increase the size of the lots, thereby reducing the density? Does the approval of the PADA commit the Town to developing the property as noted in the PADA? We have not been able to get a straight answer from the Town.

What to do???
The Planning and Zoning Administrator has said publicly that this annexation will cost the Town money. After the initial collection of construction taxes and impact fees, the Town starts to lose money as it will need to maintain the infrastructure (including improving Moore Road), and provide for public safety and other town services.

However, due to the location of the annexed land, many of these new residents will shop and buy their gas in Marana, not Oro Valley. Marana will receive the sales taxes and HURF revenues (Highway User Revenue Fund).

Too many shades of gray
There are a lot of gray issues regarding the PADA and we know that it will cost the town money in the long run. When Nancy Regan was First Lady, she issued a statement regarding drug use. This statement is appropriate for the PADA. “JUST SAY NO”