Bits and Pieces-Election Final

Barrett’s election makes Oro Valley history
Melanie Barrett will become Oro Valley’s 12th mayor when she takes office in November. She is the first woman elected mayor by Oro Valley voters and only the fourth person elected directly to the office. 

Before 1998, the Town Council selected the mayor from among its members. Voters changed that system in 1998, and Paul Loomis became Oro Valley’s first directly elected mayor. Loomis served three terms. He was followed by Satish Hiremath and Joe Winfield, both of whom served two terms. Barrett now begins the next chapter in that history.

Women will hold a record number of council seats
This election also marks another milestone. When the new council is sworn in, five women will serve together on the seven-member governing body: Mayor Melanie Barrett and Councilmembers Rosa Dailey, Mary Murphy, Rhonda Piña and Elizabeth Robb. That will be the largest number of women to serve on the Town Council at one time in Oro Valley’s history. This reflects the increasingly important role women are playing in shaping our community.    

Summer Town elections produce much lower turnout
Approximately 41 percent of registered Oro Valley voters participated in this year’s election. That continues a decline that began after Arizona required municipal elections to be held on the state election calendar. Before the change took effect in 2014, Oro Valley held its primary elections in February or March and, when necessary, runoff elections in May. Turnout in the last competitive mayoral election held under the March-May schedule approached 80 percent. Since elections were moved to the summer, turnout in Oro Valley mayoral elections has averaged approximately 48 percent.

Many factors affect participation. Under Oro Valley’s former election schedule, every registered voter automatically received a ballot, regardless of party affiliation. Now, because the Town election is conducted as part of the partisan state primary, independent voters must request a ballot before they can vote in Oro Valley’s nonpartisan election. That additional step appears to contribute to lower turnout. How many of Oro Valley’s approximately 12,000 registered independent voters requested and returned a ballot this year? The answer may tell us a great deal about future municipal elections.

The campaign is over. Now comes governing
Every election sends a message. The message from this one appears to be that most Oro Valley voters are satisfied with the Town’s current direction. Barrett won the mayoral race decisively, while Dailey and Matt Wood, both of whom campaigned on continuing many of the Town’s current policies, also earned seats on the Council. Although the candidates differed on specific issues, voters generally chose experience and continuity over calls for major change. 

Campaigns naturally focus on differences. Governing requires finding common ground. We are confident that Mayor Barrett will be able to do this. Beginning in November, the new mayor and council will face important decisions involving the Town’s budget, water resources, economic development, public safety and the preservation of Oro Valley’s quality of life. 

The campaign is over. 

The work of governing begins in November.

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The Five Factors That Shaped the Oro Valley Council Election

The Council results were shaped by more than vote totals alone
No election is decided by a single factor, and this one was no exception. Our analysis suggests that five factors largely explain the Council race. Candidates with clear, positive messages performed best. The Town’s traditional voting blocks again influenced the outcome. Undervoting changed the mathematics of the election. Higher turnout in the larger Rancho Vistoso Block gave additional weight to the candidates who were strongest there. Finally, personal voter contact and familiarity helped some candidates connect with voters in ways that others could not.

Candidates’ messages mattered
In this election, we believe the messages presented by the five candidates made a significant difference. As we noted yesterday in our analysis of the mayoral race, voters responded positively to Melanie Barrett’s theme that the Town is on the right track. They rejected Mark Napier’s argument that Oro Valley was heading toward financial trouble. Positive messages often have an advantage over negative ones.

Two of the three successful Council candidates, Rosa Dailey and Matt Wood, also presented positive campaigns. Both argued that Oro Valley was moving in the right direction and was well positioned to meet the financial challenges ahead. They asked voters to continue the Town’s current course rather than change it.

Rhonda Piña likewise offered a positive message. She campaigned on experienced, financially responsible leadership that would protect public safety while strengthening Oro Valley’s long-term financial future through thoughtful economic development. Her campaign focused on what she would do rather than on what she believed was wrong with the Town.

Chris DeSimone and Jake Herrington were not elected. They finished within a few votes of each other. DeSimone emphasized efficient government, stronger revenues and annexation but did not clearly explain why he was uniquely qualified to accomplish those goals. Herrington spoke about preparing Oro Valley for the future through thoughtful leadership and long-term financial planning but offered few specifics beyond saying he would listen to everyone. Voters appear to have found the positive, forward-looking messages of Dailey, Wood and Piña more compelling.

Voting blocks remained important
Two weeks ago, we asked whether Oro Valley’s traditional voting blocks would again influence the Council election. The answer appears to be yes. [see panel right]

The Community Center Block consists of four precincts with 5,255 registered voters. The Rancho Vistoso Block consists of seven precincts with 9,535 registered voters. Together, they account for virtually all of Oro Valley’s voters.

The results show that candidates generally received their strongest support within their natural voting base. Rosa Dailey and Matt Wood, both Rancho Vistoso residents, dominated that block, consistently finishing ahead of the other candidates. Their strong performance there created a substantial advantage that carried through the townwide count.

The Community Center Block told a different story. Rhonda Piña performed considerably better there than Jake Herrington or Chris DeSimone. Although none of the three matched Dailey’s or Wood’s dominance in Rancho Vistoso, Piña’s stronger support in the Community Center Block helped separate her from the other two candidates competing for the third Council seat.

Undervoting affected the outcome
Council elections differ from mayoral elections because voters may vote for up to three candidates. Some votrers choose not to use all three votes. Instead, they vote only for the candidates they most want to see elected. This is known as undervoting.

Undervoting matters because every vote cast for another candidate increases that candidate’s total. A voter who is uncertain about a third choice may decide not to cast that vote rather than help elect someone the voter does not strongly support.

In this election, voters cast an average of 2.5 Council votes per ballot. That means many voters selected only two candidates. Based on the voting totals, we estimate that roughly half of all ballots were undervoted.

That pattern benefited candidates who became a voter’s clear first or second choice. It also reduced the total number of votes available to all candidates, making every vote more valuable.

Turnout favored the Rancho Vistoso Block
We measure voter enthusiasm in part by turnout. Overall turnout in this election was 40.4%, below the approximately 43% turnout recorded in each of the previous two elections. Most of that decline occurred in the Community Center Block.

Turnout in the Rancho Vistoso Block reached 41.7%, compared with 38.3% in the Community Center Block. While the difference may appear modest, it represented hundreds of additional voters in the Town’s largest voting block. That gave greater weight to the candidates who were strongest there.

Rosa Dailey, Matt Wood and Melanie Barrett invested a considerable amount of time going door to door, asking residents whether they had voted and encouraging them to return their ballots. Some of that effort was visible on Election Day. The parking lot at the Oro Valley Public Library remained busy throughout the day as voters dropped off their ballots. That sustained ground campaign likely contributed to the higher turnout in the Rancho Vistoso Block.

Personal contact and familiarity mattered
Local elections are personal. Rosa Dailey and Matt Wood (and Melanie Barrett) spent months knocking on doors, attending neighborhood meetings and community events, and talking directly with voters. Those personal conversations helped build trust long before ballots were mailed.

Familiarity also mattered. Rhonda Piña served on the Oro Valley Town Council from 2016 through 2020, giving many voters a record they already knew. Dailey, Wood and Barrett had each established a visible presence in the community over a number of years before this campaign.

In local elections, voters often support candidates they know personally or have seen actively engaged in the community over time. Two candidates had neither of the qualities. Jake Herrington entered the race with less name recognition than the successful candidates. Chris DeSimone (and mayoral candidate Mark Napier) had no established, widely recognized history of involvement in Town affairs before this election. 

What the results tell us
No single factor explains why Rosa Dailey, Rhonda Piña and Matt Wood won election to the Town Council. Together, however, these five factors provide a persuasive explanation of the outcome.

Perhaps the broader lesson is that Oro Valley elections are still won one voter at a time. Social media, campaign videos, text messages and automated phone calls may increase awareness, but they did not replace face-to-face campaigning. Candidates who communicated a clear, positive message, built relationships over time, generated enthusiasm in key precincts and encouraged their supporters to vote were ultimately the candidates voters elected.

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Barrett's Big Win... Why It Happened

A major victory for Barrett

Last week, LOVE reported on Melanie Barrett’s mayoral victory in Oro Valley. She received 57% of the votes cast to become the next mayor of our town. 

Here's our assessment of why it happened

Voters were happy with the results of eight years of effort by Barrett

Melanie Barrett entered the race with a strong record of service and broad support throughout Oro Valley. During her eight years on the Town Council, many voters felt that the Town had changed for the better. Barrett had been involved in the major decisions that shaped the community.

After years of effort and investment, municipal golf went from being a financial burden on the Town to becoming a valued community asset. The Town weathered the pandemic years successfully. Naranja Park, once only a dream, became a reality. Public safety is rated among the best in the state. The roads remain in good condition. The views have been protected. The former Vistoso Golf Course is now preserved in perpetuity.

Barrett was able to run on that record. She had also run twice before and received record vote totals. Voters knew her, knew her work and appeared satisfied with the Town’s direction. Her victory suggests that many voters saw her as the candidate best prepared to continue that work as mayor.

Napier got his message across... and voters did not "buy it"

Barrett’s record of success meant that Napier needed a compelling campaign theme to make the race competitive. His message was that the Town would face serious financial difficulty within four or five years, that the problem required immediate action and that he was the candidate best equipped to address it. That argument required considerable persuasion because most voters could not see evidence of an approaching crisis. 

Napier never proved that the Town was heading toward dire financial straits. LOVE published several articles explaining why the available financial information did not support that conclusion. Our assessment was that Oro Valley will face financial challenges as it approaches build-out, as many communities do. Those challenges will require careful planning, but they do not establish that the Town is facing a financial crisis.

Positive messaging works better than negative messaging
Barrett’s message remained positive throughout the campaign. She focused on her experience, her record and her plans for Oro Valley, not on attacking her opponent. Napier, on the other hand, decided sometime in June that his financial message was not gaining enough traction and shifted toward increasingly negative attacks on Barrett. He argued that she was not capable of serving as mayor and that he was far more qualified, asking voters to discount her eight years as vice mayor and her earlier service on the Planning and Zoning Commission. He also tried to blame Barrett for the poor performance of the Oro Valley Marketplace, despite the fact that the property had struggled for more than 17 years. That argument also ignored Barrett’s role in negotiating the agreement with the property’s new owner that is now bringing a hotel, apartments, public spaces and other development to the site. As we observed during the campaign, negative attacks may energize a candidate’s existing supporters, but they often do little to persuade independent voters.

The result: Barrett dominated (almost) everywhere

Barrett’s support extended across all of Oro Valley [see panel right, above]. She received more votes than Napier in 10 of the Town’s 11 precincts. Napier’s only victory came in Precinct 194, the Community Center precinct and the center of the four-precinct “golf” voting block we discussed two weeks ago. Even within that block, Barrett carried the other three precincts, although her margins were narrow in traditional Community Center Precincts 077 and 173. The results show that Barrett’s appeal reached well beyond her strongest areas and into communities that had previously been expected to favor Napier.

Hello...I'm Melanie Barrett

While Napier spent much of the campaign producing videos and posting criticism on Facebook, Barrett was out meeting voters. She walked neighborhoods, attended community events and introduced herself directly: “Hello, I’m Melanie Barrett.” That matters in Oro Valley, where many residents are older and are accustomed to meeting candidates in person. They may not spend much time on social media or follow campaign posts on Facebook. Barrett understood that there is no substitute for personal contact, and her street-level campaigning helped turn familiarity into votes.

Voters’ message was clear: "No Change Needed"
Every election sends a message. The message from this one appears to be that most Oro Valley voters are satisfied with the Town’s direction and prefer steady, experienced leadership over promises of dramatic change. They know Melanie Barrett. They like what she has done. They think she is perfectly capable of leading Oro Valley into the future.

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Tomorrow: The Five Factors That Shaped the Oro Valley Council Election

Bits and Pieces

Trails plan sets long-term direction

The Town has adopted the OV Trails Connect Master Plan, a long-range blueprint for expanding and improving Oro Valley’s trail and pathway system. The plan emphasizes better connections among neighborhoods, parks, schools, businesses and recreation areas. It will also help the Town prioritize projects and compete for grant funding. More than 1,500 public comments and responses helped shape the final plan. (Town of Oro Valley Media Release)

Police warn of the dangers of hot cars
The Oro Valley Police Department is reminding residents that the inside of a parked vehicle can become deadly in just minutes. On an 85-degree day, the temperature inside a vehicle can reach 105 degrees in about 10 minutes. Police encourage residents to check the back seat, keep parked vehicles locked and call 911 immediately if they see a child or pet in distress inside a vehicle. (July-August Crimefigher Newsletter)

Marketplace park opens to the public
North Park is now open at the Oro Valley Marketplace. The new public space includes a playground, splash pad and gathering area for small community events. It is the first completed feature of the Marketplace redevelopment and is part of the first phase of the project, which also includes construction of the 320-unit Encantada apartment community. (July-August Oro Valley Vista Newsletter)

Great Horned Owl visits Rancho Vistoso
A Stone Terrace resident photographed a Great Horned Owl during a nighttime visit to the neighborhood. The Vistoso Community Association featured the photograph as its July “Critter of the Month.” Great Horned Owls feed on rabbits, rodents, snakes and other small animals, helping maintain the natural balance of Oro Valley’s desert environment. (Source: Vistoso Community Association July Newsletter)

Community Center parking project finishes early
The Community and Recreation Center parking lot resurfacing project was completed one month ahead of schedule and under budget. The project included removal of the old asphalt, grading, repaving and restriping. It also added 18 parking spaces and three ADA-accessible spaces, improving access for residents using the Community Center and nearby recreational facilities. (June Town Manager Executive Report To Council)

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Barrett Wins Mayor... Dailey, Pina and Wood To Join Council in November

Barrett to Be Oro Valley’s Next Mayor 

Vice Mayor Melanie Barrett earned more than 57% of the approximately 12,700 votes cast to become Oro Valley’s next mayor. Barrett received more votes than challenger Mark Napier in all but two precincts. Those two precincts comprise the “golf” voting block we discussed last week. Two other precincts that we identified as part of that voting block supported Barrett. A small number of ballots remain to be counted. While those votes will change the final totals, they will not change the outcome.

We Project Dailey, Piña and Wood will join the Council

The Town Council race was more closely contested. Rosa Dailey, Rhonda Piña and Matt Wood are the top three vote-getters. Dailey and Piña hold comfortable leads over fourth-place candidate Chris DeSimone. Wood, currently in third place, leads DeSimone by 520 votes.  Though some ballots remain to be counted, we do not believe enough ballots remain to change the third-place result. We therefore project that Dailey, Piña and Wood will be elected to the Oro Valley Town Council.

Some counting still remains

There is still some counting to take place. We believe the remaining ballots are primarily provisional ballots. These are ballots that, for various reasons, must be reviewed to determine their eligibility before they can be counted.

Look for our full analysis of the election results in about a week, once all votes have been counted.

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REALTORS® PAC Makes $6,400 Contribution to Napier Campaign

Realtor PAC weighs in
The REALTORS® of Arizona Political Action Committee (RAPAC) contributed $6,400 to mayoral candidate Mark Napier’s campaign. That represents about 19.5% of the campaign’s total receipts through June 30. Excluding the $5,056.54 that Mark and Marlene Napier loaned the campaign, the RAPAC contribution represents approximately 23% of the money received from other sources.

Napier participated in questionnaire and interview
LOVE asked Napier about the contribution. He told us that he believes he completed an RAPAC questionnaire and participated in a panel interview. He said the questions covered his professional background, public administration, issues facing Oro Valley and his general understanding of real estate issues. 

Barrett says "No" to PAC contributions
We spoke with Vice Mayor Melanie Barrett. Her campaign-finance report shows no PAC contributions. She told LOVE she does not recall whether she was ever contacted by RAPAC. Even if the organization had contacted her, she said she would not have accepted its financial support. Barrett has never accepted PAC contributions in any of her three campaigns because she believes doing so allows her to answer only to Oro Valley residents. 

The value RAPAC get from supporting Napier...

Napier told us that his priorities are:

• Development consistent with existing zoning

• Building heights that do not detract from the Town’s appearance

• Development compatible with surrounding neighborhoods

• Responsible and sustainable development of Oro Valley’s remaining open residential land

We do not know whether any of those priorities align with RAPAC’s. You can do your own assessment by comparing them to those listed in the panel above. The size of the contribution suggests that either RAPAC saw an alignment between its priorities and his or that it expects to receive some other value. 

...could be "access"

Napier told LOVE that any suggestion that the contribution could influence him was “patently absurd....I made no commitments to the Realtors PAC other than to listen." This commitment to listen does assure RAPAC that its views will be heard if he is elected mayor. Whether that opportunity alone explains the $6,400 contribution remains unanswered.

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