CAP Water Makes Oro Valley Water Sustainable... For Now

Is Oro Valley immune from the drought?

Many of us who live in Oro Valley take our drinking for granted. We turn on the tap. Water comes out. We know that the Western US is in the midst of a 20 year drought; but we’ve been told by the Town of Oro Valley that we have noting to worry about. Oro Valley has a sufficient supply of water for the next 100 years. 

One would think that Oro Valley residents are immune from the drought. But are we?

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We see evidence of the drought around us

The result of the 20-year drought is around us. Prickly pear plants are withering. Desert flowering this spring is far less than we’ve seen in past years. Trees are late to bloom. Our desert plants are in trouble and there is nothing we can do.

Oro Valley’s drinking water supply is sustainable because of CAP

How Oro Valley gets its water and where we get it from matters. We’re not Seattle. We’re not Portland. We’re not Boston. We, unlike them, live in the desert. Even in a good rain year, Oro Valley gets no more than a foot of rain in total. In a bad year, like the one’s we are experiencing we get far less.

Our water supply is not naturally replenished by rain. If the town draws more water from the ground than gets back into the ground the the total supply decreases. 

Fortunately, Oro Valley also gets water from the Colorado River Project (CAP). It is Oro Valley’s only other source of potable water. CAP was 33% of the total drinking water produced in 2020.

Oro Valley uses the water it gets from CAP to both replenish its ground water and to provide for current consumption.  CAP has made the town’s drinking water supply sustainable.

Central Arizona Project (CAP) is a 336-mile long aqueduct system which distributes Arizona's Colorado River water allocation for the purpose of conserving groundwater. When you read articles that discuss the reduction in CAP water, this is the source to which they are referring. 

Town anticipates no curtailment of CAP water supply even in 20 year drought

There’s less and less water coming into the Colorado River Basin. Indeed, the Federal Bureau of Reclamation, the group that manages CAP has started to restrict the amount of water States are allowed to draw. There is now a “Tier 0” shortage. The town anticipates that further restrictions will happen in 2022. Still, the town anticipates that this will not impact our water supply. Indeed, there is a fallback of previous water stored by the State that can be used. 

According to the town, the actions thay have taken “...combined with a diverse water resource portfolio reduces the chances of a water resource shortage in the event of CAP water delivery curtailments.”. Reducing risk is good. But the town has not eliminated the risk.

Town assumes residents will continue to conserve water... but will the town do likewise?

The town’s water plans assume that residents will “...reduce demands through an increased focus on the efficient use of water resources ... to preserve water supplies for future uses.”  The town does not “walk this talk.” As we have reported, they are reopening the Pusch Ridge Golf Course. That course will use enough drinking water to supply 400 single family homes for year. Add to this the potential approval of many apartments along Oracle Road. Apartments bring greater density to the area and with it, greater consumption of water.

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Source: 2021 Oro Valley Water Utility Report

Guest View: Jim Tripp ~ The tip of the iceberg: Annexation of 885 acres of State Trust Land at Tangerine and Thornydale is a pilot project for 9.3 million acres of trust land

Since last August, I have been researching the Arizona State Land Department (ASLD) proposal to put approximately 3100 houses (with their associated cars and people) on the proposed annexation of 885 acres of State Trust Land at Tangerine and Thornydale.

I read the plan and wondered: "Why isn't the CAP Water Board trying to block this development, which will require 860,000 gallons of water day? The Colorado River is already over-allocated, which has led to us being under a Drought Contingency Plan."

Two conflicts of interest uncovered
Oh. Lisa Atkins is the Board President of CAP (Central Arizona Project) as well as Commissioner for ASLD. That would explain it. Although her position at CAP is not a paid position, she does have a conflict of interest as Commissioner of ASLD and CAP Board President. Ironically, Atkins said at "sunset" meetings for the ASLD that any attempt to merge ASLD with another related State department would inevitably lead to conflict of interest because control over different but related natural resources inevitably leads to conflict of interest!

So who is her Deputy Commissioner, I wondered? It’s Wesley Mehl of Tucson. According to the Tucson Sentinel in an article from July 2015, "Mehl is the son of developer, David Mehl, who along with brother George built the La Paloma resort in the Catalina Foothills, and the Dove Mountain development in Marana." That would explain why we are continuing the residential housing boom during deepening drought.

Sacrificing water and ignoring conflicts of interest
But maybe it's all worth it if it improves funding for K-12 education. That's what they said at the public meetings. In fact, they justified the whole project on the basis of a constitutional mandate to sell Trust Land for the benefit of K-12 education.

So I checked that out. Arizona ranks 48th out of 50 in public education funding, and K-12 education is by far the biggest single expenditure in the State budget. The Trust Fund has billions in it, but it costs billions every single year to fund public education. Maybe we need to sacrifice water and look the other way at conflicts of interest if it will help K-12 education.

The math doesn’t add up
So I estimated that the Trust land might sell for something like $100 million, which would perhaps yield 3-4% ($3-4 million dollars per year) on the $100 million. But the plan adds 1,767 K-12 students, at a cost of about $15 million per year (to stay in 48th place), for a net loss of $11-12 million per year.

Why is the Marana School District (where the Oro Valley annexation is taking place) allowing this? Because they will get their $8500 per year per student from the General Fund, even if those students drain the General Fund at $11-12 million per year. State taxes will have to be raised or other services curtailed, to make up this deficit. What an irony, given that the whole point of Trust Land sales was to provide enough money so that K-12 education would never cost taxpayers a dime as Arizona moved from Territory to State!

Marana School District CFO never reviewed the site plan
I contacted Don Contorno, Chief Financial Officer of Marana Unified School District, who wrote a letter of approval to Oro Valley for taking on the students. He wanted to know where I got the outlandish number of 1,767 K-12 students, and I told him that it was from the published Site Specific Plan. He sheepishly confessed that he never read the plan and assumed the area would be developed like Sky Ranch.

A “Model” for future development
ASLD and Oro Valley have not publicized that this is a pilot project to be rolled out for the entire 9.3 million acres of trust land, with a stated goal of speeding development by transferring zoning rights from citizens to developers via "zoning banks."

LOVE readers and residents of Sky Ranch, Tangerine Crossing, and Dove Mountain need to present a united front now and in the future.

You can view a detailed slide presentation HERE

Please visit my Facebook page (MyLand.YourLand.AZ)   HERE
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Jim Tripp has a Bachelor’s degree in Biological Sciences from Cornell University and a Ph.D. in Molecular and Cellular Biology from Oregon State University. Prior to retirement, he was employed as a Federal Regulations Analyst for Wisconsin Power and Light and as a Research Scientist at UC Santa Cruz and Berkeley National Labs. He has over 30 scientific publications to his credit.

CAP's Water Source: Lake Meade In Pictures and Words

Our "red flag"
Prior to our extended vacation, we posted a "red flag" regarding Oro Valley Water's reliance on CAP water as a reliable long term water source. Simply put, there is a continuing long term dought that has so drastically reduced reservoir water levels (Lakes Mead and Powell) that water delivery restrictions could result as soon as 2020. Lest you think we're kidding, we did even more research.

We came with 2 excellent reference sources. Both, we think are highly credible.

This chart is of Lake Meade water levels. The source of the chart is the US Department of the Interior. They manage Colorado River water.

Water levels are down 17% in twenty years. The water level is projected to drop even further.

Still not convinced that CAP Water (CAP gets it water from Lake Meade) may not be a sustainable long-term water source?

Then take a look at these 31 pictures courtesy of CBS News. Here's one that shows just how dire the situation has become.

Our point?

The drought is real. Imagining a sudden reversal of this drought is not realistic.

Advocating that Oro Valley has plenty of water to support huge annexation is foolhardy.

Oro Valley ought to consider a water future where CAP water is less, and not more of a water source.
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Western States Drought Could Restrict CAP Water

CAP water comes from the Colorado River by agreement, not by right
The Central Arizona Project (CAP) channels water from the Colorado River to cities and towns in Arizona. CAP gets its water from Lake Mead.  CAP  has an agreement with six other states and Mexico.

The amount of water Arizona is allowed to take for CAP is designated by agreement with two other states, Unfortunately, a huge water hog, California, drinks from the same trough. Nevada, another water hungry state (how many water displays are in Las Vegas?) also partakes.

CAP water came to Oro Valley in 2012
CAP water was not used by Oro Valley until six years ago. That was because there was no way to get water to Oro Valley from the reservoirs in Avra Valley. First, the reservoirs had to be built; then the City of Tucson had to get the water.  Oro Valley Water signed an agreement with Tucson Water to "wheel" water through

them to Oro Valley. Oro Valley needed the water because growth had caused the town to draw more than it target maximum groundwater target water usage.

CAP water is a significant contributor to Oro Valley's water supply
Oro Valley uses CAP water to recharge its wells. As this chart shows, Oro Valley now uses less groundwater than its target maximum groundwater use. Prior to CAP becoming accessible, this was most certainly not the case.

Oro Valley now depends on CAP water to replenish its wells. Oro Valley can not provide water at a "safe well usage" level without it.

The prolonged western states drought threatens the Colorado River water supply
There is a prolonged drought in the West that has reduced available water levels.

"The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, responsible for divvying up Lake Mead’s water and electric power, in August reported a 57 percent chance that Lake Mead’s water levels would be so dismal in 2020 that Arizona and Nevada would face cutoffs." (Source)

Specifically, Lake Mead and Lake Powell that feeds it, are at 38% and 45% of maximum levels. (Source) The sources that feed these lakes aren't in much better shape. (Read more about the CAP water situation here and here.)

Our conclusion: Be good for the town to consider whether it really is wise to encourage growth in total water consumption given the possibility that CAP water could be restricted.