The 14% CAP 2027 and 2028 delivery cut can managed...Last week, LOVE reported that the proposed State Trust Land annexation could eventually require roughly 1,000 acre-feet of water a year, about 10% of Oro Valley’s current CAP allocation. We also noted that CAP conditions have worsened since Water Utility Director Peter Abraham raised concerns last year about supplying that land.
...but it requires a new water utilization strategy
Beginning in 2027, Oro Valley is expecting about a 14% reduction in CAP deliveries. At the September 14 Water Utility Commission (WUC) meeting, Mitch Basefsky, Stakeholder Outreach Coordinator for the Central Arizona Project and Abraham explained how that reduction is expected to affect Oro Valley. Abraham said the Town anticipates losing a little more than 1,400 acre-feet of CAP deliveries in 2027. But he does not expect that reduction to create an immediate water shortage for current customers. Here's how Abraham plans to manage the reduction.
The Arizona Water Bank is expected to make Oro Valley whole
Oro Valley already has an agreement with the Arizona Water Banking Authority (AWBA) that allows the Town to obtain replacement water during shortages. Abraham said more than 600,000 acre-feet is stored in the Tucson Active Management Area and that Oro Valley has access to a portion of that water. His current plan is to use the Water Bank to offset the projected CAP reduction and effectively restore the Town to its full 10,305 acre-foot CAP allocation for planning purposes.
Abraham said Oro Valley currently has just under 30,000 acre-feet of long-term storage credits in the Tucson Active Management Area and expects that amount to continue growing. The Northwest Recharge Recovery Delivery System is also expected to begin operating in early 2027, reducing groundwater pumping and giving the Town additional flexibility in how it uses its CAP supply.
But NWRRDS is not a quick fix. First, NWRRDS does not increase Oro Valley’s water entitlement. It gives the Town a better way to recover and deliver water to which it is already entitled, reducing reliance on groundwater and improving flexibility in how the Town manages its existing supplies. Second, as we reported in August, it will take time for the Town to introduce NWRRDS water into the Oro Valley water system because it has different water chemistry than the groundwater currently delivered to customers, requiring the Utility to carefully blend and monitor the new supply as it is introduced into the distribution system.
These protections are intended to buy time... they are not permanent solutions...
The important point is that Abraham, speaking at the commission meeting, did not describe these measures as a permanent answer to declining Colorado River supplies. He said the Town’s firming strategies (backup water-supply measures) were created for situations like the one now developing and are intended to “buy us the decades we need” to develop the next set of water supply solutions.
That brings the 852 State Land annexation question back into focus
The September discussion does not change what LOVE reported last week. Oro Valley appears well positioned to manage the expected 2027 CAP reduction given what Oro Valley is today. The longer-term question is different.
These protections are intended to buy time... they are not permanent solutions...
The important point is that Abraham, speaking at the commission meeting, did not describe these measures as a permanent answer to declining Colorado River supplies. He said the Town’s firming strategies (backup water-supply measures) were created for situations like the one now developing and are intended to “buy us the decades we need” to develop the next set of water supply solutions.
Replacing or augmenting any significant piece of the CAP water supply is decades off
Arizona is actively studying long-term water sources, including desalination, imported water, reuse and brackish groundwater. But projects capable of replacing a meaningful share of Colorado River water remain in the study and planning stages. State planning documents have acknowledged that some projects could take as long as 30 years to implement. That means Arizona may have to manage declining Colorado River supplies for many years before any new source can replace or augment a significant portion of CAP water.
That brings the 852 State Land annexation question back into focus
The September discussion does not change what LOVE reported last week. Oro Valley appears well positioned to manage the expected 2027 CAP reduction given what Oro Valley is today. The longer-term question is different.
Why should Oro Valley make a permanent commitment to supply water to a new area at a time when CAP deliveries are being reduced, future CAP projections remain challenging, long term solutions are decades away and the Town will be increasingly reliant on stored water and other firming strategies to protect its existing customers?
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Publisher Note: The agreement requiring the CAP reduction must be approved by the Arizona Legislature. As of this date, that approval has not occurred.
