Lake Powell's Low Water Level Matters to Oro Valley

Low water level is sending Oro Valley a warning
Oro Valley is not facing an immediate water shortage, but the weakening Colorado River system could reduce the Town’s future flexibility and increase water costs.

Lake Powell’s decline is becoming more serious
Lake Powell is again moving in the wrong direction. The Bureau of Reclamation projects that the reservoir will end the 2026 water year at about 22 percent of capacity. The expected inflow for the year is just 36 percent of average. The reservoir is not merely a recreation destination hundreds of miles from Oro Valley. It is one of the two major storage reservoirs supporting the Colorado River system and the Central Arizona Project water delivered to communities across central and southern Arizona. 

CAP water changed Oro Valley’s water future

Oro Valley began receiving CAP water through the Tucson Water system in 2012. In 2023, the Water Utility purchased its full annual CAP entitlement of 10,305 acre-feet. Of that amount, 2,573 acre-feet were recovered and delivered through the potable water system, representing 27 percent of the utility’s total water production. Other CAP water was used to replace groundwater pumping or stored for future use. By the end of 2023, Oro Valley had accumulated an estimated 34,493 acre-feet of long-term storage credits. Credits are an accounting right, administered by the Arizona Department of Water Resources, that allows the Town to recover an equivalent amount of water from permitted wells when needed.

There is no immediate Oro Valley water shortage
The present situation does not mean that Oro Valley residents are about to turn on their faucets and find no water. Arizona is operating under a Tier 1 Colorado River shortage, but the reductions have fallen primarily on agricultural and other lower-priority CAP users. Municipal and industrial users continue to receive most of their allocations. Oro Valley also has groundwater wells, reclaimed water, storage credits and an annual CAP entitlement of 10,305 acre-feet. That diversified portfolio gives the Town protection against a near-term interruption. 

The first loss may be water stored for the future
The more immediate risk is not necessarily a reduction in water delivered to existing customers. It is a reduction in the CAP water that Oro Valley can recharge and save for later. Water Utility Director Peter Abraham told the Town Council in June that the utility was preparing for a possible 20 percent CAP allocation reduction. He said current customer deliveries could be maintained, but less unused CAP water would be available for storage. That would gradually reduce the reserve Oro Valley has built for future droughts, growth and emergencies. 

NWRRDS improves delivery but does not create water
The Northwest Recharge, Recovery and Delivery System will strengthen Oro Valley’s ability to recover CAP water stored west of Tucson and move it into the Town’s water system. The regional project is expected to provide Oro Valley with capacity to recover and deliver as much as 4,000 additional acre-feet annually. That should reduce groundwater pumping and give the Town greater control over its water deliveries. NWRRDS does not create another source of water. It provides a better way to deliver CAP water, and CAP water still depends on the condition of the Colorado River. 

Lake Powell is a warning, not an immediate crisis
Oro Valley has prepared better than many communities for water uncertainty. It has reduced groundwater dependence, accumulated storage credits and invested heavily in regional infrastructure. Still, Lake Powell’s decline cannot be dismissed as someone else’s problem. A smaller CAP allocation could mean less water stored for the future, greater reliance on groundwater and storage credits, and higher costs for purchasing, transporting and recovering renewable water. Oro Valley is not running out of water. However, the renewable supply on which the Town increasingly depends is becoming less certain and more expensive. That makes conservation, reclaimed-water expansion and careful growth planning just as important as ever. 

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2025 TMRB: 80% Of Spending By “The Big Four” Departments

"The Big Four”-Water, Public Works, Public Safety, Parks
$115 million will be allocated in 2025 by four departments according to the 2024 Town Manager Recommended Budget ("TMRB"). The departments are Water, Public Works, Police, and Parks and Recreation. This is based on LOVE’s combined spending analysis of the TMRB (an explanation of our methodology is provided at the conclusion of this article).

Here’s is what is “driving” the spending

Water: $41.2 million
More than half of the total water spending of $41.2 million is allocated for capital items. The most significant is the town’s investment of $17.2 million in bringing Central Arizona Project (CAP) water more directly to Oro Valley. Some CAP water will be routed directly to Oro Valley from Avra Valley, through Marana, as opposed to being delivered through the Tucson Water System. Water Director Abraham believes that the new delivery system, once completed, will enable Oro Valley to reduce its groundwater pumping to below 5,000 acre-feet per year. Next year’s spending on this project is estimated to be $14.5 million, which will complete it. The TMRB budget calls for the Water Utility to issue $20 million in debt this year to finance this project..

Public Works: $28.3 million
Public Works is the town's workhorse, keeping everything running smoothly. It provides a wide range of services, including engineering; maintaining over 450 miles of roads, with preservation of 70 miles each year; ensuring traffic lights function properly; dispensing 20,000 gallons of gas per month; maintaining the town’s bridges and a fleet of over 300 vehicles; overseeing facilities maintenance for all town properties; managing stormwater control; and operating the town's transit system.

Public Works faces two significant challenges. First, town facilities are aging and require replacement. Bridges need resurfacing, and roads need milling. Second, inflation has significantly increased the cost of operations. For example, the cost of the pavement preservation program is projected to double from previous years due to the reliance on oil-based solutions.

Public Service: $22.9 million
Personnel costs constitute 85% of the operating expenses for the police department, with fleet replacement planned at 5% this year. Speaking at last week’s council budget session, Chief Riley highlighted that the key issue faced by the department is "It's very important that we prepare for the future regarding succession planning and training, and tonight is no different."

Being a police officer is a challenging job. As Chief Riley observed, "Our staff sees and hears things that they can't unsee." A major focus is providing a career path for officers. John Teachout, Oro Valley Police Field Services Commander, noted, "We aim to develop from within, so the budget requested for field services is targeted at the development and succession planning of line-level staff, enabling them to advance through the ranks with the same good fortune as those of us in this room, while also maintaining focus on health and wellness."

Parks: $22.3 million
Parks continues its robust spending. This year, the capital budget stands at nearly $8 million,with $4million allocated to the revegetation of the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve.  This latter amount assumes that the town can get a grant of $2million for  the Preserve.  Additional projects include further expenditures on the Community Center building, an incomplete elevator, roof repairs, and a bridge on the Pusch View Golf Course. Furthermore, there are $1.9 million in debt service payments for the bond this council approved in 2021 to fund improvements at Naranja Park and replace golf course irrigation systems. In addition, there is a $12 million cost for the ongoing operation and maintenance of the parks and recreation system-wide.

Everything else: $22.6 million 

The biggest chunk of all of department cost is the $3 million renovation of the Court Facility.

Tomorrow: Personnel
Tomorrow, we take a look at staffing and spending.
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Our Methodology adds all the spending together
We consolidated all spending for each department, encompassing operations and maintenance, capital improvement projects, and debt service—a breakdown not provided by the TMRB. Unlike the TMRB, which organizes spending by fund without detailing some capital improvement projects and debt service costs by department, we either directly identified these costs or developed estimates for them. Additionally, the TMRB earmarks $19.7 million in contingency funds, which may not be utilized; thus, we have excluded these from our analysis. The TMRB reports total spending at $137.4 million, and we were able to attribute all but $2.2 million of that spending to specific departments.

Bits and Pieces

Oro Valley Village Center: Years of planning... nothing done

Last year, the Oro Valley Town Council granted approval for the Oro Valley Village Center. However, there has been no progress in terms of construction. Perhaps that is because the Council declined to commit the town to building a pivotal element of the project: The construction and ongoing maintenance of the Oasis Park Entertainment Center. 

The Developer, Town West, is now requesting a change in the zoning for the center. They are seeking the following changes: An increase in permitted hotel building heights; a "reclassification" of the central wash area initially designed for the entertainment center; and a revised site and landscape design. The Planning and Zoning Commission will review these  plans this coming Monday. Then, council will hear it on November 1.

Meanwhile, the success of any project on the site of the Oro Valley Market Place is threatened by Uptown, which is being built on the site of the former Foothills Mall.  That project is similar in concept to the Oro Valley Village Center. The land has been cleared. Now, Uptown is ready for construction.  It is our guess that it will be online sooner than anything built at the Oro Valley Village Center. The Uptown concept is super exciting and notably beyond the reach of Oro Valley's 2.5% sales tax.

Did you know? Town sells 4,718 memberships

The Town of Oro Valley has 4,718 members in total in its facilities: The aquatic center; the three municipal golf courses; the community center and the archery range. That number is up by 2% from last month. In addition, there were 283 reservations for town fields and ramadas. The town added 30 water smart users in the past month. (Source: Town Manager October Report)

Number of single family residential permits low... mirrors national picture

In September, the town granted six single-family residential permits. According to the Town Manager's October Report, there have been a total of 91 single-family residential permits issued year-to-date, a decrease compared to the 166 permits issued during the same period in 2022. 

This week, The Wall Street Journal reported that home sales are currently on track for the slowest year since the housing market crisis in 2008, with fewer than 3 million homes sold nationwide. [see panel at right] The decline is attributed to increasing borrowing costs, record-high home prices, and a limited inventory of homes available for sale. In addition, many people are locked into low interest mortgages on homes they currently occupy.People are choosing to stay in their current homes due to high inflation and significant economic uncertainty.

Short-term rental registrations at 53% of estimated total listings... town acts to increase compliance

On September 22, we reported that the town had officially registered 185 short term rentals (STRs), according to information provided by the town.  The town has identified a total of 348 short term rentals listed in Oro Valley, as per the Host Compliance STR Tracking system. That implies that the about 47% of listing have not yet complied.

"Staff have begun reviewing STR registrations at the beginning of each month to identify any that have not registered and send a notice of violation. Staff have been successful at determining noncompliant STRs and achieving voluntary compliance, understanding that some notices of viola- tion sent to rental properties were not received because the compliance software provides the STR address but not the owner address if it’s not the same. Currently, staff are assessing the number of noncompliant STRs that remain to initiate enforcement action, which includes citing into Oro Valley Municipal Court."  (Source: Town Manager October Report)

Six Percent Drinking Water Rate Increases Being Discussed

Consultant: Future Water Rate Increases Needed

The town council will consider a drinking  rate increase in June. This will be the result of a process that started in October, with a consultant's study of the cost of water service. It continued Monday night when the Town of Oro Valley Water Commission will review a report prepared by the consultant,  Willdan. 

The study, “Water Rate Study and Long-Term Financial Plan”. recommends that the town implement water rate increases each July from 2022 through 2026. The rate of increase this year and next would be 6% (See panel right). This would be a 

... to cover increase cost and investment

According to the study, the increases are needed to cover expected personnel and operating expense increase, increases in the cost of CAP water and funding of $18.9 million in capital improvements during these years. Two thirds of the capital improvement spending is for the NWRRDS project that will bring and added $4,000 acre feet of CAP water to Oro Valley.

Most of the improvements will be funded either by the add on tax, the Groundwater Preservation Fee, and through $8million bond issuance in 2023.

Would result in a 6% increase next July

A residential user of 7,000 gallons per month would see an increase of $2.15 on their water bill in 2022. That is a 6% increase over their current billed used at this level.

Four reasons the increase benefits the community

The consultant provides four reasons why the 6% rate increase will be beneficial to Oro Valley:

• Will enable utility to continue operating on a stand-alone basis and independent of general fund assistance
• Will result in financially-healthy utility that has ability to fund operations and capital needs
• Ensures that ratepayers pay only what it costs to provide water service
• Will allow $18.8 million of capital investment to improve quality of service and provide a well-functioning system for future generations

Friends of Pusch Ridge Golf Address Potable Water Use Challenge

The Pusch Ridge Golf Course uses drinking water for irrigation

In reopening the Pusch Ridge Golf Course, the The Oro Valley Town Council committed to use drinking water to irrigate the course; enough drinking water to supply 400 plus single family homes. The commitment was made at a time when the Western US is facing a long-term drought, so severe that CAP water is now under a Level 1 restriction with a higher level restriction expected in the near future.

What to do is complicated

To date, we know of no action the council has taken to reduce the total drinking water use on this course. The council summarily dismissed the idea of bringing reclaimed water to the Pusch Ridge Golf Course. That would cost $4 million. The council has mentioned the idea of turf reduction. However, there are no announced plans.

Friends of Pusch Ridge Golf recognize the challenge

Enter into this situation, "Friends of Pusch Ridge Golf".  As we wrote yesterday, they are working with the town to create an economically viable entity. The also understand the need to do something about the drinking water used.

Here are their thoughts, as presented by spokesperson Tony D'Angelo. 

To some extent, they are waiting to see what the town wants to do 

"Friends of Pusch Ridge Golf is very mindful of this challenge and the fact Pusch Ridge Golf currently uses potable water. At this point Oro Valley Water has offered no challenge to the golf course’s water use plan for this season. If and when more restrictive water limitations are imposed, our group will support whatever actions the town water authority believes are necessary to protect the town’s water supply."

Focusing, at the moment, of getting the most economic return from the course

"We do recognize that this use of water today may impact what is required sometime in the future to sustain resident families. Therefore, all we can do is work as hard as we can to get the most benefit from the water used to green the golf course and produce income. We believe we are doing this by working to make sure the amount of play and revenues generated provide a reasonable return on investment. The town council authorized three years of operation to see if it can be a true value to the town. We know the pressure is on. This first year is all about proving the course can be a net benefit to the town."

Sees turf reduction in non playable areas

"Assuming we are successful this season, we hope to work with the town before it reopens next year on plans to reduce turf in non-playable areas and therefore reduce water requirements. We hope to continue to grow the numbers of Friends of Pusch Ridge and offer financial support to the town beyond what the three HOA’s surrounding the course have committed to provide to tackle this challenge."

Ultimately, we have to find a way to get off potable water. 

"It is unfortunate that when the state, years ago required golf courses to use reclaimed water, Oro Valley sought and received a waiver from the requirement for Pusch Ridge. Now the costs to do so are greater. Everyone in town has to be more creative in solving this challenge. The easy answer seems to be to just close down golf courses. The impact on the quality of life and the economics of such a decision seem to deserve we explore other options first.

We believe there are solutions out there

We just hope people and circumstances with the drought give us time to find a good one. Oro Valley is a great community that does deserve to excel. Friends of Pusch Ridge Golf sincerely wants to contribute to the town’s continued growth and sustainability."

Watchdog Report: Am I The Only One Who Is Disappointed?

Disappointed?

Sometimes things just don't turn out the way we hoped...

Town Staff and Town Counsel act as if Oro Valley is desert water oasis

We’re told to “conserve water” but the town's water director tells us we have plenty of water to accomplish almost unlimited growth.

Really? Apparently Town Water Director Peter Abraham thinks we are an oasis. This is contrary to every publication in the last 12 months informing us of the extreme, prolonged drought conditions. The Council went to the Arizona League of Cities and Towns meeting last month and was briefed by the CAP on the drought issues, and the “Dead Pool” situations at Lake Mead and Lake Powell. With all this information available to the Council, they just approved a BOND to improve the irrigation system on the two golf courses. Is it more important to water golf courses or to water the farms that grow our food and grow feed for cattle.

We have a Town Council that has been factually informed that the potable water being wasted on the Pusch Ridge course this year has exceeded 18 million gallons, and has done nothing, not even a discussion to close the course. As of this writing, no council member has even acknowledged a communication that I sent to them about this subject.

The town's public works director thinks that traffic congestion is good

According to Town Public Works Director Paul Keesler, traffic congestion is good. It makes drivers slow down and, therefore, reduces any collision damage. The fact that it increases pollution and the town’s carbon footprint apparently is of no concern to him. This individual also sees no issues with the development of the Marketplace to include apartments and hotels despite how much traffic and congestion these will add to the community.

The town manager "manages" the town council

In violation of Town Policy, Town Manager Mary Jacobs would not allow two council members to amend an agenda. She has also ignored the Council policy of November 2019 that stated that we would pay for golf improvements on a “pay-as-you-go” basis and not via a bond. She completely ignored the policy and convinced the Council to bond to improve the irrigation on the two 18-hole courses and make improvements to the community center building.

The Community and Economic Development Department has done nothing of substance

Nothing. The department has not bought real wage jobs and real employers into Oro Valley. However, this department, under its prior “here today, gone tomorrow leader", convinced the Council that pre-grading lots would entice big-time employers to locate here, when in actuality, it only increased dust pollution. What a joke. Add to this the fact that the town contributes money to the Sun Corridor to help entice employers, which has shown to be another waste of money.

The barn at Steam Pump Ranch is becoming town offices

The Mayor boasts that his administration is the only Council to pay any attention to Steam Pump Ranch. His council is restoring the garage. However, the original use of the restored garage was intended for the offices of the Oro Valley Historical Society – but the Town Manager, with the concurrence of the Council, amended its usage to allow it to be used for Town Staff offices instead. Once again, the “needs” of the Town Staff come before the needs of Steam Pump Ranch.

Town Council members simply don't communicate with their constituents

We have four elected members of Council that promised to hold “Council on Your Corner” events to give you an opportunity to express your opinions one-on-one. Granted COVID put a dent into this promise, but they could have held zoom meetings. What about now? Massive changes are currently being proposed for the former Oro Valley Marketplace. This would be the perfect time for all seven council members to hold constituent meetings. Why haven’t they done it?

Aren't you disappointed too?

Bits and Pieces

Water use up this year

Oro Valley Water Revenues are projected to be $1.1 million ahead of budget, according to Mary Rallis, Oro Valley Water Administator. Expenses for the year are expected to be at or slightly below budget. 2020 was a hot and dry year. According the Oro Water Director Peter Abraham, water demand directly correlates with the number of days of intense heat. This is compared to 2018 and 2019, which were wet years. We also suspect that there was more than planned water use because there was less travel and more "staying at home" because of the pandemic.

Town engages consultant to analyze PSPRS funding options

The Town, like all cities and towns Arizona, has underfunded is police pension fund. As a result, the town council approved a policy to fund the pension by contributing more than the required amount to the state each year. That policy will fund the pension fully by 2036, as we recall. "The town is now engaging a third-party, independent consultant to analyze and present options relating to PSPRS pension funding for the Town, with the intent of determining which option is most financially advantageous in dealing with the PSPRS unfunded liability over time. This analysis may impact the PSPRS pension funding policy revisions."  The objective is to present a commission approved plan to council on April 7.

The "NIMBY" Apartment Problem

Earlier this week we spoke with Council Member Joyce Jones-Ivey. One of the topics we discussed are apartment in Oro Valley. We referred her to our posting of October 27 on future rezoning hearings to support more apartment in our town.  Three are more than 1,748 potential units in seven complexes. Five of the seven will require rezoning and council approval.  95% of these units will be on Oracle Road. This adds to the fact that Oracle Road is already host to most apartments.

We asked Jones-Ivey if clustering all of the apartments on Oracle Road met the goal of “diverse housing” as defined in the general plan. In our mind, there is no diversity if everything is clustered in one area.  Thing is: The town has a NIMBY problem.

“That’s the issue,” Jones-Iven observed. “Nobody wants them. Who’s going to complain if they are on Oracle Road?

Bits and Pieces

National Housing Slowdown Comes To Oro Valley
According to the Wall Street Journal: "The national housing slowdown is spreading to markets like Las Vegas and Phoenix, where prices still haven’t reclaimed their pre-crisis peaks."

The Long Realty report for Oro Valley for December, shows a slowdown in sales from the previous year.

"In the Oro Valley area, November 2018 active inventory was 265, a 1% decrease from November 2017. There were 58 closings in November 2018, a 17% decrease from November 2017. Year-to-date 2018 there were 851 closings, a 2% decrease from year-to-date 2017.

For those selling, housing for sale inventory 4.6 months, up from 3.8 in November 2017, a further indication of the slow down.

Colorado River Water Restriction Plan Will Impact Oro Valley
Apparently our warnings of potential CAP water restrictions are much more than our conjecture. They are a fact.

As we have posted numerous times on LOVE, CAP water is going to be restricted. Oro Valley's town touted water supply is going to be affected. Oro Valley needs to deal with the reality. It is a strategic issue. This article supports our continuous harping on the subject. The states need to come to agreement on how they will restrict water use or the federal government will step in.

According to Tucson's KGUN9: "Southern California's largest water wholesaler has approved a drought contingency plan that it hopes will help ensure the drought-stressed Colorado River will supply the Southwest for a decade." Notice that the plan is to supply "...for a decade" and not for 100 years, as Oro Valley's water assurances cover.

"Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming that have approved plans to take less water from key river reservoirs, including lakes Mead and Powell."  Arizona, which gets CAP water from Late Mead, has yet to approve the plan which will restrict water use starting in 2020. Arizona will be one of the first states to receive Colorado River water restriction because it was one of the last to join the water use pact.

Linda Vista-Oracle intersection may reopen in 2019!
The west side intersection of Linda Vista and Oracle has been virtually unusable for at least three months. This because Southwest Gas is replacing pipleline along Oracle Road.

There is a traffic light at this intersection that allows one to enter safely onto Oracle without having to jump in front of the high volume of traffic on Oracle.  So, getting this intersection back into operation is important to public safety.

While other intersections have been disturbed, such as Concordia and Oracle, they are now open. But not Linda Vista. We see crews working there, from time to time: Digging holes; filling holes.

Oro Valley town constituent coordinator Jessica Hynd tells us that "The reason it seems the project is sitting stale is due to offsite testing of the newly placed upgraded pipes. As testing is done, crews will return to make adjustments as needed." She also told us that the project should be fully completed by early next year.

Oro Valley Expansion: Is There Plenty Of Water Or Not?

Is it this?

Oro Valley Water Director: "Enough resources to support future growth?"
According to Oro Valley Town of Oro Valley Water Utility Services Director Peter Abraham, Oro Valley has plenty of water:

"...stewardship [of water resources] leaves enough resource availability to support the town’s future growth, even if the CAP drought contingency plans go into effect." (Source) This statement was made in an article he authored for the local advertising circular last week.

This is not the first time Abraham has put forth this proposition.

"In current drought conditions, Oro Valley is able to maintain its current developments, plus more housing units within the current town boundary and an additional 4,000 homes for 100 years, through a mix of ground water, Central Arizona Project water and reclaimed water," Abraham stated at a State Lands hearing.

Or is it this?
"Enough resources to supply our current service area for 100 years"
Apparently, Director Abraham is more confident today in his water supply projections than he was in March.

The town has a web page, "Fact-Checker web page".

One of the questions asked is: "Can the Town's water resources support all this new development?" Initially, in crafting a response to that question, which is essentially what Abraham repeated in his article and in his response at the neighborhood meeting, Abraham did not include the "100 year" assured supply time frame.

In a memo of March 6 , 2018 to the town's communications director, he said something different. He said that he "...did not want people to think that we have the resources to develop at our rate for the next 100 years." He went on: "We have the resources to supply our current service area for 100 years."

A reasoned, thoughtful answer is needed
Our conclusion is that Oro Valley really doesn’t know if it does or does not have sufficient water for expansion.

A thoughtful, considered fact-supported water analysis should be presented to council and to the residents to clarify exactly what is Oro Valley's water situation. This analysis should include estimates of water availability based on differing scenarios of resident water use and differing scenarios of potential rainfall.
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