Barrett: Lots Of Good News In The Housing Study

A housing study that was predisposed to negative conclusions

We reported yesterday that the draft housing study report presented to council at the December 6 study session was predisposed toward "doom and gloom" conclusions. This was because the study scope, as provided to the consultant by town staff, predisposed the conclusion that the Oro Valley housing stock was insufficient to accommodate future growth; and that Oro Valley housing was unaffordable. 

... does have some important "jewels" buried in the details

The report, however, is not useless. In fact, according to Vice Mayor Barrett, there is a lot of good news in the study.  Here are her remarks from the December council study session.

The jewels, as identified by Vice-Mayor Melanie Barrett, confirm that the town is well positioned to meet all State mandated requirements of the housing element of the 2026 general plan

"I made a list of like great news things that I found in buried in the details of the study:

• 
  Our community has a lot of homeowners whose property values have increased. Their investments track with regional and national standards.
• Many people own and can afford to own their homes in Oro Valley;  although homeownership has declined and rentals have increased, which could also be good. 
• 62% of Oro Valley residents under 35 own their home, as compared to 39% in the nation. So a lot more younger people here own their home. 
• We have enough housing currently zoned for our projected population growth and a lot of that is in high density residential. 
• The condition of homes are high and citizens are satisfied with them, which set us up well for the state requirements, going into our general plan regarding conditions, and meeting the needs of persons with disabilities. 
• We are very near many other areas that also have projected population growth. Our home values are relatively affordable compared to Phoenix, the State, and the area around it.
• If you look at that household income compared to housing cost, 88% of our citizens would not contemplate leaving Oro Valley. I think that that speaks highly of the quality of life that we have here.
• We’re on pace to meet all of our housing related legal requirements in our general plan.
• Oro Valley household income is outpacing the State, helping us to remain relatively affordable.
• Our stabilized vacancy rate in apartments is reported to be around 7%. This is above what would be considered a shortage which the study says would be 5%.  So we don’t have a shortage at this time.
• Overcrowding is not an issue in our houses.
• Our labor force has grown. 
• Our renters are less cost-burdened than state and national averages. 

So, there’s really a lot of good news for Oro Valley that is in the details of the report.  That’s where I was a little bit concerned with some of the bad news. I feel like there’s a lot of good news and a lot of good things going on in Oro Valley to emphasize.”

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Council Shreds General Plan Housing Study

Last month we published an article to caution all regarding a housing study the Town had commissioned. For a variety of reasons, we felt that the study had gone well beyond its stated intent, and that it was being used as a way make major changes in land use through the 2026 general plan. We also felt that the study was flawed for a variety of reasons.

Thus, the study's "doom and gloom conclusions" were predetermined

We learned at the study session of December 6 that our suspicions were correct.  The study was biased from inception: The consultant stated in the meeting that the scope of their study was to address "housing unaffordability issues and housing type gap issues". It was not to determine if there were such issues. Thus, their study conclusions were prejudiced from the start. This scope assignment came directly from town planning staff.

On the contrary, the study shows that the town is is already “…well positioned to meet Arizona legal requirements for the housing element of  the 2026 General Plan.” 

Vice Mayor Barrett opened the discussion of the study with barrels blazing. ‘I enjoyed a lot of the data that was presented and I think that there are some gaps in the data or places where the data needs to be updated. That would be useful and helpful for us in evaluating this; and I also felt that the doom and gloom that came out of some of this presentation was not justified or warranted by the data because there was a tremendous amount of good news for Oro Valley residents for our housing supply and even going into the next general plan.” [see our post tomorrow for the good news.]

The town does not have a residential housing gap

The consulting report fails to note that the town already has enough land zoned for single-family residential units to accommodate the study projection of housing needs through the year 2040. Barrett noted that, according to the study, the town already has land zoned for homes through 2040. The town has 3,114 units planned versus a 2040 study target of 3,100 units. 
The Oro Valley currently planned housing stock thru 2040 shows housing diversity 

As for diversity of housing, Barrett observed that 52.8% of future housing is going to be multi family without zoning any additional multi family. “So already compared to the Oro Valley housing supply that exists in multi family, we’re already going to be increasing that substantially by having a majority of our new housing units that come in till 2040 be multi -family.”
Housing affordability is no more of an issue in Oro Valley than in the Western US

Questioning the consultant separately, Council Member Jones-Ivey noted the housing trends of the younger generation, many of whom do not want to own homes for long periods. “Most of the people that I run into in this age group have the income, but they simply don’t want to be tied into on a dwelling for 20 or 30 years…People can lease for years.  I’m not seeing this trend as a part of your report at all.” As Vice Mayor Barrett noted: "I don't think there is a housing affordability gap compared to other locations [in the state]." 

Also, a study statement that police can not live in the town does not consider that Oro Valley Police are the highest paid in the state and one of the few police forces in the state to have a fully funded pension plan.

And that the report has many other failings including...

• Inconsistent basis of comparisons [Barrett]
• Failure to consider Oro Valley's unique geographic positioning [Nicolson; Bohen]
• Lack of learning from prior studies on housing, such as the 2020 Apartment Study [Bohen]
• An employee survey that is 85 of 10,000 employed in the town is not representative of anything. "What is represented here is simply not credible." [Winfield]
• Not factoring into their recommendations the survey results (report page 20) of what residents want [Barrett]
• Boilerplate comparisons of data from other communities

Even more studies coming

Economic Development Director Melcher stated that, at some point, the council will receive a comprehensive overview encompassing a retail gap analysis, a housing build-out study, a cost-benefit analysis, and future revenue projections. Melcher also noted that the town was awaiting the results of the housing study before commencing the retail analysis.

The good news?

Real LOVE tomorrow a list of good news hidden in the housing study.

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A Housing Study That Is Not Oro Valley

Jacobs' commissioned study calls for fundamental housing change

In June, we wrote that the Oro Valley Housing Study would be released in the fall. The study was initiated in 2020 under the guidance of the former Town manager, Mary Jacobs. The study's significance lies in its role as one factor that will be used in writing the housing element of the 2026 General Plan. A housing element must be in the plan because the town’s population will reach the 50,000-person threshold that’s required for such.

...Which would result in major land use and zoning change

Even more crucial is the fact that the housing study will play a pivotal role in shaping land use decisions in the 2026 General Plan, which will subsequently influence zoning regulations. Should the 2026 General Plan incorporate the recommendations from this study, significant zoning changes will occur.

  
Some believe that the study was biased from the start

On Monday, Take Back Oro Valley published an article expressing their belief that the study is biased. We had previously shared this concern, as we felt that the questions asked during the study process predisposed the results toward more clustered housing and lower-income housing. In other words, the study would have Oro Valley turn into something that it is not [see panel right].

Study opens a "can of worms"

Last night, the consultant, Elliot D Pollack & Company, presented the study to the Planning and Zoning Commission. They are Phoenix based and have no feeling for the uniqueness of Oro Valley. They don't know our history.

Several of the suggestions clearly fall outside the intended scope. Take, for instance, the proposal to conduct a study on converting commercial land into retail space. The consultant readily stated that this recommendation is out of the scope of the study.  However, they prepared the study under the direction of the town's planning and zoning staff.  

It's worth noting that this concept aligns closely with the preferences of the town's planning staff, who routinely grant approval for rezoning requests from commercial to residential land use.

Other out of scope recommendations include allowing 4-story apartment buildings... subsidized housing... manufactured homes. 

We've been down this road before when it comes to "land use"

According to Planner Bayer Vella, speaking at last night's meeting, the recommendations are secondary to the intent of the study, which was to collect data for the housing discussion within the general plan. However, it is expected that this discussion will evolve into a thorough review of land use, which will be incorporated into the general plan. If this revision is accepted, it will lead to the subsequent rezoning of areas....some next to your house.

The 2001-02 General Plan underwent numerous revisions related to land use within the general plan. It was modified repeatedly until it received voter approval in a substantially altered land use plan in 2005, driven by substantial resident dissatisfaction with land use. This process indeed spanned five years. Read about the resident angst and what happened on pages 105-107 in Oro Valley: The First FiftyYears by James Williams.

Our View: The housing study is a trojan horse

In our view, the purpose of the study is to provide the planning department with the means to embed in the 2026 General Plan significant changes in land use. The ultimate aim is to facilitate the construction of additional homes and apartments on existing commercial zoned parcels.

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Bits and Pieces

Oro Valley Town Council formalizes School Resource Officer Program
Last week, the Town Council formalized the town's policy regarding deployment of and reimbursement for School Resource Officer. The council unanimously agreed that  “Every K-12 school in Oro Valley should have the Oro Valley Police Department and emergency responder planner annually review and provide input to their security and emergency plans; should have a resource officer, or other alternative security approved by the Oro Valley Police Department. Oro Valley shall request a reimbursement from each school for the cost of the Oro Valley provided SROs.” We don't this will make a difference in the town's current SRO deployment, which essentially covers all of the town's public schools.

Sprouts to charge for plastic bags

Sprouts Supermarket on Oracle will be charging for plastic bags in a few weeks. For a few dollars you can get one of their heavy duty totes.  It can be used anywhere. We wonder why the Town of Oro Valley has not banned plastic bags.

Enforcement of Oro Valley’s short term rental ordinance now in effect

The Town of Oro Valley would like to remind residents that as of Friday, May 5, 2023, enforcement of the Town’s ordinance for short term and vacation rentals is now in effect. The new ordinance, which establishes rules, regulations and licensing requirements for short term and vacation rentals (e.g. Airbnb, VRBO, etc.), officially went into effect on February 3; however, Town Council allowed for a 90-day implementation period where the ordinance would not be enforced to allow individuals to become familiar with the licensing process. (Source: Town of Oro Valley Media Release). Learn more here.

Oro Valley community invited to participate in housing survey 

ORO VALLEY, Ariz. (May 9, 2023) – The Town of Oro Valley is inviting everyone who lives, works or owns a business in Oro Valley to participate in an online survey about the Town’s current and future housing needs. Your help is needed to answer questions like, “What types of housing does Oro Valley need?” and “What are barriers to homeownership?”

There are two separate surveys. The resident survey is for people who live in Oro Valley. The business owner/employee survey is for non-residents who work in Oro Valley or anyone who owns a business in Oro Valley (whether or not the business owner is a resident).” (Source: Town of Oro Valley Media Release)

Town Embarking On A Housing Study

Council and staff on what is the purpose of the study

The Town of Oro Valley is scoping and planning for doing a housing study. This was the subject of a council study session last Wednesday. Doing such a study was mandated by the 2016 General Plan. It’s a companion study to the apartment study the town reported last year. LOVE has provided a detailed analysis of this study.

Town Staff unclear of what the housing study will accomplish

It is clear from the discussion that no council member has any idea of what this study is supposed to accomplish. Indeed, Town Planner Vella has only a vague idea. He discussed why the town needs the study: “The way it benefits a community…once you get to be a certain size, knowing your demographic and insuring that it matches up with the housing stock that is being provided; analyzing that and deriving policy from that specific analysis so that we can set up zoning that targets where the town wants to go as defined in the general plan and the leadership of the town council.”

Though staff feels it is "foundational"

Vella feels that this study, which will be completed sometime in 2023 “…is foundational in taking Oro Valley wherever it should go in terms of assuring that we are also not serving just one niche but also the special needs of senior populations, disabled populations, underrepresented populations. Also sets us up for success relative to employment in attracting top talent to the town.”

Study will have a "strong economic" component

According to Vella: “There are many commercial corners that are underserved relative to rooftops, in terms of being able to be successful. A housing study should delve into that. There are areas in my opinion that do warrant conversion. There are others that should not be converted. A housing study will be helpful in pinpointing those areas.”

He pointed to the intersection of Oracle and Magee and Oracle and Ina as high density areas. “That is why those retailers are successful.” He failed to mention that Oracle Road is a state road with tens of thousands of cars passing daily. Referring the the Oro Valley Marketplace: “The area of Tangerine and Oracle has very low density rooftops.” According to Vella, “the traffic numbers are not high enough to compensate for that.”   

Town will retain a consultant... Staff will help

The town will hire a consultant to do the study. Vella asserted that “staff will be doing just as much work as the consultant in terms of compiling all of the information and verifying it." Vella stated that the staff will verify all data that is used.

Scope to be defined by council

Council members offered some ideas of what could be included, such as the impact of annexations on housing or the types of housing needed for a more mobile younger professionals who want tiny homes. One mentioned the impact of water on housing. In addition, the State of Arizona has a set of minimum requirements of scope of a housing study (See Panel)

The scope of the housing study will come to council before the study is approved.

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