A Housing Study That Is Not Oro Valley

Jacobs' commissioned study calls for fundamental housing change

In June, we wrote that the Oro Valley Housing Study would be released in the fall. The study was initiated in 2020 under the guidance of the former Town manager, Mary Jacobs. The study's significance lies in its role as one factor that will be used in writing the housing element of the 2026 General Plan. A housing element must be in the plan because the town’s population will reach the 50,000-person threshold that’s required for such.

...Which would result in major land use and zoning change

Even more crucial is the fact that the housing study will play a pivotal role in shaping land use decisions in the 2026 General Plan, which will subsequently influence zoning regulations. Should the 2026 General Plan incorporate the recommendations from this study, significant zoning changes will occur.

  
Some believe that the study was biased from the start

On Monday, Take Back Oro Valley published an article expressing their belief that the study is biased. We had previously shared this concern, as we felt that the questions asked during the study process predisposed the results toward more clustered housing and lower-income housing. In other words, the study would have Oro Valley turn into something that it is not [see panel right].

Study opens a "can of worms"

Last night, the consultant, Elliot D Pollack & Company, presented the study to the Planning and Zoning Commission. They are Phoenix based and have no feeling for the uniqueness of Oro Valley. They don't know our history.

Several of the suggestions clearly fall outside the intended scope. Take, for instance, the proposal to conduct a study on converting commercial land into retail space. The consultant readily stated that this recommendation is out of the scope of the study.  However, they prepared the study under the direction of the town's planning and zoning staff.  

It's worth noting that this concept aligns closely with the preferences of the town's planning staff, who routinely grant approval for rezoning requests from commercial to residential land use.

Other out of scope recommendations include allowing 4-story apartment buildings... subsidized housing... manufactured homes. 

We've been down this road before when it comes to "land use"

According to Planner Bayer Vella, speaking at last night's meeting, the recommendations are secondary to the intent of the study, which was to collect data for the housing discussion within the general plan. However, it is expected that this discussion will evolve into a thorough review of land use, which will be incorporated into the general plan. If this revision is accepted, it will lead to the subsequent rezoning of areas....some next to your house.

The 2001-02 General Plan underwent numerous revisions related to land use within the general plan. It was modified repeatedly until it received voter approval in a substantially altered land use plan in 2005, driven by substantial resident dissatisfaction with land use. This process indeed spanned five years. Read about the resident angst and what happened on pages 105-107 in Oro Valley: The First FiftyYears by James Williams.

Our View: The housing study is a trojan horse

In our view, the purpose of the study is to provide the planning department with the means to embed in the 2026 General Plan significant changes in land use. The ultimate aim is to facilitate the construction of additional homes and apartments on existing commercial zoned parcels.

- - -

Bits and Pieces

Oro Valley Village Center: Years of planning... nothing done

Last year, the Oro Valley Town Council granted approval for the Oro Valley Village Center. However, there has been no progress in terms of construction. Perhaps that is because the Council declined to commit the town to building a pivotal element of the project: The construction and ongoing maintenance of the Oasis Park Entertainment Center. 

The Developer, Town West, is now requesting a change in the zoning for the center. They are seeking the following changes: An increase in permitted hotel building heights; a "reclassification" of the central wash area initially designed for the entertainment center; and a revised site and landscape design. The Planning and Zoning Commission will review these  plans this coming Monday. Then, council will hear it on November 1.

Meanwhile, the success of any project on the site of the Oro Valley Market Place is threatened by Uptown, which is being built on the site of the former Foothills Mall.  That project is similar in concept to the Oro Valley Village Center. The land has been cleared. Now, Uptown is ready for construction.  It is our guess that it will be online sooner than anything built at the Oro Valley Village Center. The Uptown concept is super exciting and notably beyond the reach of Oro Valley's 2.5% sales tax.

Did you know? Town sells 4,718 memberships

The Town of Oro Valley has 4,718 members in total in its facilities: The aquatic center; the three municipal golf courses; the community center and the archery range. That number is up by 2% from last month. In addition, there were 283 reservations for town fields and ramadas. The town added 30 water smart users in the past month. (Source: Town Manager October Report)

Number of single family residential permits low... mirrors national picture

In September, the town granted six single-family residential permits. According to the Town Manager's October Report, there have been a total of 91 single-family residential permits issued year-to-date, a decrease compared to the 166 permits issued during the same period in 2022. 

This week, The Wall Street Journal reported that home sales are currently on track for the slowest year since the housing market crisis in 2008, with fewer than 3 million homes sold nationwide. [see panel at right] The decline is attributed to increasing borrowing costs, record-high home prices, and a limited inventory of homes available for sale. In addition, many people are locked into low interest mortgages on homes they currently occupy.People are choosing to stay in their current homes due to high inflation and significant economic uncertainty.

Short-term rental registrations at 53% of estimated total listings... town acts to increase compliance

On September 22, we reported that the town had officially registered 185 short term rentals (STRs), according to information provided by the town.  The town has identified a total of 348 short term rentals listed in Oro Valley, as per the Host Compliance STR Tracking system. That implies that the about 47% of listing have not yet complied.

"Staff have begun reviewing STR registrations at the beginning of each month to identify any that have not registered and send a notice of violation. Staff have been successful at determining noncompliant STRs and achieving voluntary compliance, understanding that some notices of viola- tion sent to rental properties were not received because the compliance software provides the STR address but not the owner address if it’s not the same. Currently, staff are assessing the number of noncompliant STRs that remain to initiate enforcement action, which includes citing into Oro Valley Municipal Court."  (Source: Town Manager October Report)

Bits and Pieces

Oro Valley Town Council formalizes School Resource Officer Program
Last week, the Town Council formalized the town's policy regarding deployment of and reimbursement for School Resource Officer. The council unanimously agreed that  “Every K-12 school in Oro Valley should have the Oro Valley Police Department and emergency responder planner annually review and provide input to their security and emergency plans; should have a resource officer, or other alternative security approved by the Oro Valley Police Department. Oro Valley shall request a reimbursement from each school for the cost of the Oro Valley provided SROs.” We don't this will make a difference in the town's current SRO deployment, which essentially covers all of the town's public schools.

Sprouts to charge for plastic bags

Sprouts Supermarket on Oracle will be charging for plastic bags in a few weeks. For a few dollars you can get one of their heavy duty totes.  It can be used anywhere. We wonder why the Town of Oro Valley has not banned plastic bags.

Enforcement of Oro Valley’s short term rental ordinance now in effect

The Town of Oro Valley would like to remind residents that as of Friday, May 5, 2023, enforcement of the Town’s ordinance for short term and vacation rentals is now in effect. The new ordinance, which establishes rules, regulations and licensing requirements for short term and vacation rentals (e.g. Airbnb, VRBO, etc.), officially went into effect on February 3; however, Town Council allowed for a 90-day implementation period where the ordinance would not be enforced to allow individuals to become familiar with the licensing process. (Source: Town of Oro Valley Media Release). Learn more here.

Oro Valley community invited to participate in housing survey 

ORO VALLEY, Ariz. (May 9, 2023) – The Town of Oro Valley is inviting everyone who lives, works or owns a business in Oro Valley to participate in an online survey about the Town’s current and future housing needs. Your help is needed to answer questions like, “What types of housing does Oro Valley need?” and “What are barriers to homeownership?”

There are two separate surveys. The resident survey is for people who live in Oro Valley. The business owner/employee survey is for non-residents who work in Oro Valley or anyone who owns a business in Oro Valley (whether or not the business owner is a resident).” (Source: Town of Oro Valley Media Release)

Is Oro Valley Growing Too Expensive For Retirees?

One "study" says Oro Valley is getting to expensive
This is the conclusion of a study by gobankingrates.com. The study, published in September, ranks Oro Valley as 22 out of 30 nationwide locations that are getting too expensive for retirees.

Oro Valley’s senior population is approximately 30% according to census.gov (US Census Bureau). We are not just a retirement community; but people have traditionally moved here to do just that.


Reason 1: High Cost of Housing

The study uses median housing list price as a gauge of housing cost.

Gauging the cost of houses using that measure can lead to erroneous conclusions since a "median" is not an average. It is the middle number in a bunch of numbers.

We think that the average price per square foot of living space is a better measure. So, LOVE undertook our own study using data provided by Long Realty.

LOVE calculated the average asking price per square foot. We compared Oro Valley to other local retirement communities. We found that Oro Valley is near the top of the pack, but inline with Saddlebrook, which is a retirement community. Take a look at our infographic (panel left).

Reason 2: High cost of  living
We posted about Oro Valley's high local taxation last week, referencing a Kiplinger report that listed Oro Valley as a "high local tax town".

In that posting, we identified heavy taxation of water, a fact not considered by Kiplinger, as an added high tax factor. We also noted in that posting the relatively high property valuations assigned by the Pima County Assessor to Oro Valley properties, values that enable them to collect proportionately more property tax dollars from Oro Valley  property owners than from other communities.

Other than taxation and the cost of housing, the cost of living in Oro Valley is comparable to other local communities
The cost of living in Oro Valley  is also in line with the national average (panel right).

Our conclusion
Oro Valley's high cost of housing and high local taxes not only make Oro Valley expensive for retirees, but also make Oro Valley expensive for everyone else.
---
You can do your own research on cost of living by clicking here, customizing it to your income and preferred locations.

About the  GOBankingRates study: They analyzed 50 cities with large senior populations (i.e., 25% or more of the population aged 65 or older). 

Bits and Pieces

National Housing Slowdown Comes To Oro Valley
According to the Wall Street Journal: "The national housing slowdown is spreading to markets like Las Vegas and Phoenix, where prices still haven’t reclaimed their pre-crisis peaks."

The Long Realty report for Oro Valley for December, shows a slowdown in sales from the previous year.

"In the Oro Valley area, November 2018 active inventory was 265, a 1% decrease from November 2017. There were 58 closings in November 2018, a 17% decrease from November 2017. Year-to-date 2018 there were 851 closings, a 2% decrease from year-to-date 2017.

For those selling, housing for sale inventory 4.6 months, up from 3.8 in November 2017, a further indication of the slow down.

Colorado River Water Restriction Plan Will Impact Oro Valley
Apparently our warnings of potential CAP water restrictions are much more than our conjecture. They are a fact.

As we have posted numerous times on LOVE, CAP water is going to be restricted. Oro Valley's town touted water supply is going to be affected. Oro Valley needs to deal with the reality. It is a strategic issue. This article supports our continuous harping on the subject. The states need to come to agreement on how they will restrict water use or the federal government will step in.

According to Tucson's KGUN9: "Southern California's largest water wholesaler has approved a drought contingency plan that it hopes will help ensure the drought-stressed Colorado River will supply the Southwest for a decade." Notice that the plan is to supply "...for a decade" and not for 100 years, as Oro Valley's water assurances cover.

"Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming that have approved plans to take less water from key river reservoirs, including lakes Mead and Powell."  Arizona, which gets CAP water from Late Mead, has yet to approve the plan which will restrict water use starting in 2020. Arizona will be one of the first states to receive Colorado River water restriction because it was one of the last to join the water use pact.

Linda Vista-Oracle intersection may reopen in 2019!
The west side intersection of Linda Vista and Oracle has been virtually unusable for at least three months. This because Southwest Gas is replacing pipleline along Oracle Road.

There is a traffic light at this intersection that allows one to enter safely onto Oracle without having to jump in front of the high volume of traffic on Oracle.  So, getting this intersection back into operation is important to public safety.

While other intersections have been disturbed, such as Concordia and Oracle, they are now open. But not Linda Vista. We see crews working there, from time to time: Digging holes; filling holes.

Oro Valley town constituent coordinator Jessica Hynd tells us that "The reason it seems the project is sitting stale is due to offsite testing of the newly placed upgraded pipes. As testing is done, crews will return to make adjustments as needed." She also told us that the project should be fully completed by early next year.

Bits and Pieces

Will Troon Golf Bail?
Is it possible that Oro Valley's minimal 2016 spending on the improvements to the golf courses will cause Troon Golf to bail on the town? We ask because the golf courses are in sad shape, well below any standard that Troon Golf may have for their courses. Certainly, they don't want to soil their reputation. Also, they have an incentive clause in their contract that activates only when golf fees are significant. It is unlikely that 2016 will be a "significant" year.

Don't Forget: Comment on the draft of the general plan 
This is a "gentle" reminder to please invest a bit of your time in reading the 60% complete draft of the 2015 general plan. You can access it here. And, when you are done, be sure to submit comments on it.

Zinkin continues active involvement in League of Cities and Towns
Council Member Mike Zinkin is Oro Valley's representative to the League of Arizona Cities and Towns. He is the town's representative on the Budget, Finance and Economic Development (BFED) Policy Committee. In addition, he or Oro Valley's representative on the Steering Committee of the National League of Cities and Towns Community and Economic Development Committee

Cheap golf round rates at Golf Club at Vistoso
The Golf Club at Vistoso is offering summer rates:

• Mornings: $32
• Twilight: $23
• Sundown: $18

Oro Valley housing market shows continued improvement in May
According to Long Realty: "In the Oro Valley area, May 2015 active inventory was 313, a 9% decrease from May 2014. There were 73 closings in May 2015, a 3% increase from May 2014. Year-to-date 2015 there were 318 closings, a 4% increase from year-to-date 2014. Months of Inventory was 4.3, down from 4.9 in May 2014. Median price of sold homes was $283,000 for the month of May 2015, up 14% from May 2014. The Oro Valley area had 66 new properties under contract in May 2015, up 3% from May 2014." (Source: Long Realty Monthly Report)

November recall election to cost $25,000-$30,000
The town estimates that the November recall election of Council Members Hornat, Snider and Waters will cost up to $30,000. This is far less than the $75,000 estimate that those who opposed the election were estimating. This is because this election will be on the same ballot as the Pima County Bond Election. The town will take the funds from the contingency reserves since the election was not planned in the budget.

November Recall election particulars
If you plan to vote in the recall election, and we hope that you do, you must register to vote by October 5. Those wishing to run for these positions have from August 5 to September 5 to file nomination papers. The minimum number of signatures for eligibility is 526 registered Oro Valley voters.

Meet the Community Center Architect Open House
"The Town of Oro Valley invites you to an open house for a "Meet the Architect" event on Monday, June 29, from 6 to 7 p.m. in the Sunset Room at the new Oro Valley Community & Recreation Center, 10555 N. La Cañada Drive. Participants will have the opportunity to meet the architect chosen to assist the Town with remodeling this facility (Breckenridge Group) as well as view the three main focus areas of the initial renovation: ADA access and compliance, remodeling the fitness lobby and remodeling the restaurant dining area." (Source: Town of Oro Valley Press Release)

Questions: Who is Breckenridge Group? They have no web site. They are not approved by the Better Business Bureau. How did the town go about selecting them to do this job?

"Despicable Me 2" at OV's FREE Drive-In Movie at the Driving Range this Saturday Oro Valley,
"Join your friends and neighbors for a FREE Drive-in Movie on the Driving Range this Saturday, June 20 at sunset (approximately 7:30 p.m.). The Town of Oro Valley will show the PG-rated movie "Despicable Me 2" on a giant, inflatable screen right on the driving range at the Oro Valley Community and Recreation Center, 11555 N. La Cañada Drive. You are welcome to drive in your golf cart or bring blankets and chairs to sit on the lawn. Food and beverages will be available for purchase." (Source: Town of Oro Valley Press Release)

Oro Valley earns fourth "Playful City USA" designation
"The Town of Oro Valley has earned the "Playful City USA" designation from national non-profit KaBOOM! Presented by The Humana Foundation, Playful City USA is a national program advocating for local policies that increase play opportunities for children and is a key platform in combating the play deficit. This is Oro Valley's fourth year receiving this designation (2011, 2012, 2013)."(Source: Town of Oro Valley Press Release)