Council Shreds General Plan Housing Study

Last month we published an article to caution all regarding a housing study the Town had commissioned. For a variety of reasons, we felt that the study had gone well beyond its stated intent, and that it was being used as a way make major changes in land use through the 2026 general plan. We also felt that the study was flawed for a variety of reasons.

Thus, the study's "doom and gloom conclusions" were predetermined

We learned at the study session of December 6 that our suspicions were correct.  The study was biased from inception: The consultant stated in the meeting that the scope of their study was to address "housing unaffordability issues and housing type gap issues". It was not to determine if there were such issues. Thus, their study conclusions were prejudiced from the start. This scope assignment came directly from town planning staff.

On the contrary, the study shows that the town is is already “…well positioned to meet Arizona legal requirements for the housing element of  the 2026 General Plan.” 

Vice Mayor Barrett opened the discussion of the study with barrels blazing. ‘I enjoyed a lot of the data that was presented and I think that there are some gaps in the data or places where the data needs to be updated. That would be useful and helpful for us in evaluating this; and I also felt that the doom and gloom that came out of some of this presentation was not justified or warranted by the data because there was a tremendous amount of good news for Oro Valley residents for our housing supply and even going into the next general plan.” [see our post tomorrow for the good news.]

The town does not have a residential housing gap

The consulting report fails to note that the town already has enough land zoned for single-family residential units to accommodate the study projection of housing needs through the year 2040. Barrett noted that, according to the study, the town already has land zoned for homes through 2040. The town has 3,114 units planned versus a 2040 study target of 3,100 units. 
The Oro Valley currently planned housing stock thru 2040 shows housing diversity 

As for diversity of housing, Barrett observed that 52.8% of future housing is going to be multi family without zoning any additional multi family. “So already compared to the Oro Valley housing supply that exists in multi family, we’re already going to be increasing that substantially by having a majority of our new housing units that come in till 2040 be multi -family.”
Housing affordability is no more of an issue in Oro Valley than in the Western US

Questioning the consultant separately, Council Member Jones-Ivey noted the housing trends of the younger generation, many of whom do not want to own homes for long periods. “Most of the people that I run into in this age group have the income, but they simply don’t want to be tied into on a dwelling for 20 or 30 years…People can lease for years.  I’m not seeing this trend as a part of your report at all.” As Vice Mayor Barrett noted: "I don't think there is a housing affordability gap compared to other locations [in the state]." 

Also, a study statement that police can not live in the town does not consider that Oro Valley Police are the highest paid in the state and one of the few police forces in the state to have a fully funded pension plan.

And that the report has many other failings including...

• Inconsistent basis of comparisons [Barrett]
• Failure to consider Oro Valley's unique geographic positioning [Nicolson; Bohen]
• Lack of learning from prior studies on housing, such as the 2020 Apartment Study [Bohen]
• An employee survey that is 85 of 10,000 employed in the town is not representative of anything. "What is represented here is simply not credible." [Winfield]
• Not factoring into their recommendations the survey results (report page 20) of what residents want [Barrett]
• Boilerplate comparisons of data from other communities

Even more studies coming

Economic Development Director Melcher stated that, at some point, the council will receive a comprehensive overview encompassing a retail gap analysis, a housing build-out study, a cost-benefit analysis, and future revenue projections. Melcher also noted that the town was awaiting the results of the housing study before commencing the retail analysis.

The good news?

Real LOVE tomorrow a list of good news hidden in the housing study.

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