Campaign signs were once the primary way candidates reached Oro Valley voters. Event today, they remain highly visible throughout town. This election, however, has brought a broader outreach effort. Mayoral candidate Mark Napier and council candidates Chris DeSimone and Rhonda Piña have invested substantially in digital advertising and campaign media. Their reports identify approximately $19,300 in social media advertising, campaign social media and broadly described advertising services. Additional payments were made for websites, video production, consulting, signs and campaign materials. The reports do not separately identify how much was spent on automated telephone calls or campaign text message
Will social media make a difference? Will it sway voters? Will it change the voting blocs we discussed yesterday?
Social media may move the needle a little
There have been relatively few studies focused specifically on municipal elections. Research from larger elections generally finds that political advertising on social media has limited and inconsistent effects. One experiment involving approximately two million voters examined an eight-month digital advertising campaign during the 2020 presidential election. On average, the advertising neither increased nor decreased turnout. The researchers concluded that even a large digital campaign was likely to have only modest mobilization effects. Other research suggests that social media may be more effective at increasing visibility and reinforcing the views of existing supporters than at changing the minds of undecided voters.
Robotexts may work better as reminders than as persuasion
One study involving more than three million voters found that a simple text-message reminder increased turnout by about 0.3 percentage points. That is a small effect, but even a small increase could matter in a close local election. Research examining text messages intended to change voters’ candidate preferences has generally found little or no measurable effect. The evidence suggests that texts may be more useful for reminding supporters to vote than for persuading them to support a particular candidate.
Robocalls have shown limited results
Randomized studies have generally found that prerecorded political calls have little effect on either turnout or candidate preference. They are relatively inexpensive and allow campaigns to contact many voters quickly, but reaching a voter is not the same as persuading one.
Negative advertising presents another uncertainty
Research on negative campaigning has produced mixed results. Attacks may affect attitudes toward the candidate being criticized, but they can also cause voters to react negatively toward the candidate making the attack. Other research has found that negative advertising is not necessarily more effective than positive advertising. Much depends on whether voters consider the criticism credible, relevant and fair. Repetition may make a claim more familiar, but familiarity does not necessarily make it persuasive.
These methods may make a difference at the margins
Social media advertising, robocalls and robotexts can increase a candidate’s visibility, reinforce the views of supporters and remind people to vote. They appear to be less reliable at changing firmly held opinions.
In a close Oro Valley election, however, even a small effect could influence the outcome. We will know next week whether this extensive outreach made a measurable difference.
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