The results of Oro Valley’s Mayoral 2022 and Council 2024 elections suggest that where voters live may help explain how they vote. In both elections, a group of precincts centered in Rancho Vistoso voted differently from four precincts that include and surround the Town’s municipal golf courses. The candidates and issues changed, but the geographic divide remained.
Rancho Vistoso provided Winfield’s winning margin in 2022
In the 2022 mayoral election, Joe Winfield narrowly defeated former Oro Valley Police Chief Danny Sharp in the Mayoral election. This result was a bit surprising because Danny Sharp was a well-known, well respected figure in our Valley for many years. Sharp carried four precincts by a combined 920 votes. Winfield overcame that deficit by carrying seven other precincts by 1,251 votes. His strength in Rancho Vistoso and the surrounding precincts provided the margin needed for his 285-vote townwide victory. That was close!
The 2022 council race followed a similar pattern. Melanie Barrett, Joyce Jones-Ivey and Josh Nicolson won a majority of the council votes in nine of the Town’s eleven precincts. Their strongest support came from Rancho Vistoso. Their weakest results came from the precincts that include the Town’s two municipal golf courses, although they still received almost 48% of the vote there.
The same pattern appeared again in 2024
The 2024 council election produced another geographic split. Mary Murphy and Mo Greene received their strongest support in the golf-oriented precincts. Elizabeth Robb and Tim Bohen performed better in the Rancho Vistoso-oriented precincts. Murphy also received strong support in the Rancho Vistoso precincts. Robb received strong support in the community center precints. The election also produced substantial undervoting, as many residents used only one or two of their three available council votes.
A pattern is not a prediction... but tomorrow we will know more
Two elections do not establish how Oro Valley residents will vote in the future. Candidates, issues and turnout change from one election to the next. Still, the results of 2022 and 2024 suggest that Oro Valley has two identifiable geographic voting coalitions. And, as the panel shows, one is much larger in terms of voters than the other. The 2026 election will show whether that pattern continues or whether voters create a different one.
Tomorrow: Will Social Media Spell The Difference?
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