“Neighbor Joe” Makes a Good Story But It Does Not Explain Oro Valley’s Finances

A simple story with a serious accusation
Mayoral candidate Mark Napier recently compared Oro Valley to his fictional neighbor Joe, a man who misses his income forecast, withdraws money from savings, postpones home improvements, and reduces maintenance because he cannot afford it. Napier concludes that Joe is in financial trouble and says the Town is being managed in the same way. He then accuses candidates who disagree of being “in denial for personal and political reasons.” It is an effective campaign story. It is not an accurate explanation of Oro Valley’s finances.

Yes. town's financial pressures are real
Napier is right that Oro Valley’s revenue outlook has weakened. The Town substantially reduced its sales tax forecast after collections fell below expectations. The fiscal year 2027 budget took action. Council removed or deferred approximately $11.6 million of proposed capital spending. None of this spending was essential. Council directed General Fund departments to reduce operating and maintenance spending by one-half of one percent. It reduced excess police pension contribution by approximately $1.5 million while maintaining a fully funded police pension, These are real adjustments; responsively done. 

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But, let's get the facts right
But Napier does not see it that way. Instead, his "Neighbor Joe Story" says the Town missed its “income projections” by 12.5 percent. That wording makes it sound as though all Town revenue fell 12.5 percent below budget. It did not. The figure applies only to projected local sales tax revenue. As we have previously explained in several articles, much of that shortfall resulted a construction project that did not begin when Town staff assumed they would. It was a timing issue. It is not evidence of a permanent, long-term revenue decline. Yes, the staff forecast miss was substantial, and staff should be held accountable for it. However, a shortfall in one major revenue category is not the same as a 12.5 percent shortfall in all Town income. 

In fact, the approximately $4 million shortfall represents about 3.7 percent of the Town’s anticipated total revenues.

A Fund balance is not a rainy-day account
The “Neighbor Joe Story” also says the Town regularly takes large sums from “long-term savings just to balance the budget.” That description treats every reduction in the General Fund balance as evidence that the Town is living beyond its means. This is where Napier gets it wrong. A municipal fund balance is not merely a household savings account. It includes money available for planned capital transfers, debt service, and other authorized uses, as well as the amount needed to satisfy the Town’s reserve policy. A decline in the General Fund balance does not necessarily mean the Town has dipped below its required reserve or used emergency savings to pay routine operating expenses, any more than a change in your bank balance means you are going broke.

Which projects and which maintenance?
Also in the “Neighbor Joe Story", Napier says that the Town is delaying or canceling “very significant improvements” and scaling back normal maintenance because it lacks the money. He does not identify which capital projects have been deferred, why they are essential, why they were deferred, or how the delays affect residents. Nor does he identify which maintenance work will not be performed. 

It has been the history of Oro Valley budgeting that proposed capital plans routinely change as projects are reprioritized, redesigned, rescheduled, or moved outside the five-year planning period. A change in proposed capital spending is not, by itself, proof that the Town cannot afford to maintain its essential infrastructure.

A household comparison has limits
A household analogy can make a complicated issue easier to understand, but only when the comparison accurately reflects the facts. A municipality operates multiple funds, receives revenues that are legally restricted to specific purposes, transfers money between funds, pays debt service, and finances assets that may serve residents for decades. Oro Valley’s finances cannot be accurately evaluated by treating the General Fund as a checking account and the entire fund balance as personal savings.

Questions require more than an analogy
Napier has raised fair questions about revenue forecasting, capital priorities, spending discipline, and long-term financial planning. Those questions should be debated. However, declaring the Town to be in serious financial trouble requires more than comparing it to an overspending homeowner. It requires identifying which recurring expenditures exceed recurring revenues, which deferred projects materially affect residents, which maintenance needs are going unmet, and when the Town is projected to fall below its required reserve. The “Neighbor Joe Story" provides none of that.

Challenges are not the same as mismanagement

All candidates agree that Oro Valley faces financial challenges. Sales tax revenues have flattened, staff badly overestimated the timing of major construction projects, and the Town must carefully manage spending as it approaches build-out. Those are legitimate election issues. They do not, by themselves, prove that the Town is financially mismanaged.

The most troubling part of Napier’s “Neighbor Joe” story is his suggestion that those who disagree with his conclusion are “in denial for personal and political reasons.” There is no evidence that Melanie Barrett, during her eight years on the Town Council, ever acted out of personal or political interest in assessing the Town’s finances. Voters deserve a fuller explanation of why Napier would imply otherwise.

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Happy 250 America...

America is turning 250! 

LOVE wishes all of our readers a safe, happy and memorable Fourth of July.

Oro Valley will mark the occasion Saturday with America’s Birthday Bash at James D. Kriegh Park. Join friends and neighbors for an evening of community celebration, entertainment and patriotic fun.

Remember to vote. Nothing could be more patriotic.

250 Years and Counting!

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Bits and Pieces

Council approves next year’s budget

Last week, the Oro Valley Town Council unanimously approved the Town’s final budget for fiscal year 2026-27. The budget sets a maximum expenditure limit of $127.99 million and includes the Town’s General Pay Plan and ten-year Capital Improvement Program. The projected ending balance across all Town funds is approximately $47.85 million. The new fiscal year begins July 1.

Council Member Murphy opposes use tax without an efficiency audit
Also last week, the Oro Valley Town Council approved a 2.5% use tax by a 4-3 vote. The tax generally applies to taxable business purchases from out-of-state sellers when an equivalent local sales tax was not collected. Vice Mayor Barrett and Councilmembers Murphy and Nicolson voted against the measure. Murphy told LOVE: “I will never vote for a new tax without an operational efficiency audit. It does not mean that I believe we aren’t operating efficiently, but I absolutely believe our residents and businesses deserve us to do our due diligence before ever enacting a new tax.” Council had first approved the tax in January, but that action became void after the Arizona Department of Revenue failed to update the Town’s tax code within the required period. The tax takes effect July 1.

Floodplain update protects access to insurance and disaster aid
The Oro Valley Town Council unanimously approved updates to the Town’s floodplain and erosion-hazard regulations. These changes keep Oro Valley in compliance with state and FEMA standards, helping preserve residents’ access to federally backed flood insurance and the Town’s eligibility for disaster assistance and flood-mitigation grants after a major storm.

Oro Valley plans a larger July Fourth celebration
Oro Valley will celebrate America’s 250th anniversary on July 4 at James D. Kriegh Park from 6:00 to 9:20 p.m. The free event will include live music, food trucks, children’s activities, a beer garden and fireworks beginning at 9 p.m. Parking will be available at the Oro Valley Aquatic Center and Canyon del Oro High School. Residents should note that pets, outside alcohol, smoking, glass containers, personal shade tents and personal fireworks are not permitted. Coolers are allowed but may be inspected.

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The Voting Begins

Let the voting begin
Yesterday, the Pima County Recorder’s Office (520-724-4330) mailed early ballots for the July 21 election. The Recorder recommends returning completed ballots by mail no later than July 14, one week before Election Day. Hopefully, LOVE’s election reporting, particularly the unique insights each candidate shared with our readers during the past ten days, will be helpful as you complete your ballot.

The issues
Some issues raised during the campaign cannot be measured objectively. Statements about leadership, transparency, communication, responsiveness and the Town’s general direction depend largely on each voter’s judgment and priorities. 

Two issues are quantifiable, and we have previously reported on both. Some candidates question the Town’s financial sustainability. We checked on this. Based on the numbers provided by the Town, Oro Valley is not currently in financial difficulty, and the Town’s five-year forecast does not anticipate such a condition. It's AA+ bond rating attests to that. However, it is clear to us after reviewing the forecast that the next five will be financially challenging. And that future leaders will need to closely question revenue forecasts, control ongoing spending, determine which capital projects are truly necessary, protect the Town’s required reserve and make careful choices as Oro Valley approaches build-out. At the same time, all candidates agree that annexation of retail rich areas will be key to driving added revenues.

Water availability and water use have also been raised as issues by some candidates. We have previously reported that Water Utility Director Peter Abraham has said Oro Valley has an assured 100-year water supply, even at full build-out. He has also said the new NWRRDS pipeline from Avra Valley will provide the Town with a more reliable and diverse water supply. Abraham has told LOVE that he expects water to continue moving through the CAP system over the long term. Whether it comes from the Colorado River, highly treated recycled water, or desalinated seawater or a combination of these, there will be water.

Mayoral election is “winner take all”
Your vote matters, especially because Oro Valley will elect its next mayor in this election. The two candidates bring different backgrounds to the race. Melanie Barrett is completing her second term on the Town Council and currently serves as vice mayor. Mark Napier is a former Pima County Sheriff whose career has focused largely on law enforcement and public administration. Each has offered a different perspective on the Town’s priorities, finances, growth and future direction.

Council election: Up for grabs
Unlike the mayoral race, it is possible that not all three open Town Council seats will be decided in this election. To be elected in the primary, a candidate must be among the top three vote-getters and must also receive at least the required majority threshold. That threshold is calculated by adding all votes cast for the council candidates, dividing that total by the three seats to be filled, dividing again by two and rounding up to the next whole number.  Candidates who do not reach the threshold cannot be elected in the primary, even if they finish among the top three. Any remaining seats would be decided in the November general election.

You may vote for fewer than three council candidates
A voter may select fewer than three council candidates, and the ballot will still be counted. This is called undervoting. It may make sense when a voter supports only one or two candidates and does not believe the others have earned a vote. Only the candidates selected receive votes. Choosing fewer than three candidates also reduces the total number of votes used to calculate the election threshold.  Undervoting played a significant role in the 2024 council election, reducing the election threshold from 7,908 votes to 6,069 votes.

The choice is yours
The choices are now in the hands of Oro Valley voters. Read what the candidates have said, consider the facts and the issues that matter most to you, and vote for those you believe are best prepared to guide the Town through the next four years. Whether you vote for one, two or three council candidates, make each choice deliberate. Your ballot will help determine Oro Valley’s leadership and direction.

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Guest View: Mayoral Candidate Melanie Barrett - A Record of Results and a Plan for What Comes Next

Today, we present the last of seven candidate Guest Views. Today’s View is from mayoral candidate and Vice Mayor Melanie Barrett. Her Guest View is longer than the others. However, we felt it was important to publish it in its entirety because it provides specific information about both her record during the past eight years and the work she believes remains to be done.

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A record of accomplishment
Being your Vice Mayor for the past eight years has been an incredible honor. I look back joyfully at all that we have accomplished together.

We strengthened Oro Valley’s record of public safety

We have frequently been rated the safest city in Arizona and received national recognition as one of the nation’s best and safest places to retire. We supported our police with competitive pay, achieved three police accreditations under award-winning Police Chief Kara Riley, and modernized our court system and building to improve safety.

We strengthened the Town’s finances

...raising our Standard & Poor’s rating two levels to AA+. We paid off the long-neglected police pension liability, saved more than $30 million, and maintained relatively low debt. We also turned municipal golf from annual operating losses of about $2 million into an operating surplus.

We built a major park, enhanced recreation, and added open space

This golf turnaround allowed us to invest in parks and recreation without new taxes. We added miles of paths and trails, improved Community Center amenities, and expanded Naranja Park with a playground, splash pad, pickleball courts, fields, a skate park, and a pump track. We also added Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve to the Town’s park portfolio, protecting it from development and creating a community asset.

We protected Oro Valley’s character and fostered economic development

We supported economic growth through the expansion of Roche Tissue Diagnostics, the annexation of the Westward Look Resort, and the opening of more than 45 businesses this year. We also protected mountain views along Tangerine Road by rejecting proposed six-story apartments and allowing two- and three-story buildings instead. We rejected a development agreement that would have cost the Town more than $6 million in taxes and required one of three promised hotels to be built to help make the project fiscally sustainable.

We invested in a more reliable, diverse water supply

We addressed water concerns through conservation and infrastructure that diversifies our supply. The Northwest Recharge and Recovery Delivery System, scheduled for completion next year, will bring Oro Valley its Colorado River allocation.

These accomplishments were achieved through the Town and community working together. 

Still, there is work to be done
I am running for Mayor so I can continue that work for you.

Build our new police station
We purchased an affordable building to support our police. That building now needs cost-effective design and remodeling. 

Annex commercial corridors
We have also begun planning for annexation to the south near Oracle and Ina to bring additional retail and revenue into Oro Valley. I want to move that plan forward. To succeed, Oro Valley must be a Town that neighboring residents want to join and where they trust they will be heard.

Complete the redevelopment of the Oro Valley Marketplace
A second apartment development and a hotel remain to be built at the Oro Valley Marketplace. The hotel has not yet moved forward, and the Town must continue to uphold the commitments made as part of that development.  

Protect our views and limit building heights

This second apartment project was proposed at five stories and limited by the Town Council to three stories. A future request for additional height remains possible. We need to hold the line on protecting our views and limiting building heights. There is also a proposed building in Stone Canyon with five-story height approval that is now involved in litigation. Oro Valley needs a Town Council committed to limiting building heights where appropriate.

Protect our water supply from risky annexations and high-water-use development
We need to protect our water supply and avoid annexations of state land to the west or north that could affect our water rights. State land could potentially be proposed for a data center. Should such a request come forward, the Town Council must conduct proper due diligence and represent residents rather than outside interests, landowners, or politicians who have supported data centers elsewhere.

Make careful, sustainable investments in parks, trails, and open space
We should continue making modest, incremental investments in parks and recreation as funding becomes available. Those investments must meet resident needs while remaining fiscally sustainable. We also need a better plan for Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve and should continue improving community connectivity through paths and trails.

Together, we must implement our ten-year General Plan without returning to the excessive amendments that were common before my time on the Town Council.

Why I am running for Mayor
I have been honored to represent Oro Valley residents on the Town Council. Because I have never accepted developer donations or been beholden to out-of-town interests, my focus has remained on the residents of Oro Valley. If elected Mayor, I will continue to answer to the residents of Oro Valley.

I hope to continue serving and representing you for four more years as your Mayor. I would be honored to have your vote.

Please visit MelanieBarrett.org to learn more about these issues. Thank you.

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Guest View: Mayoral Candidate Mark Napier - Leadership for Oro Valley’s Future

This is a continuation of the Guest Views of candidate.  Today, we turn our attention to the Mayoral Candidates. Today’s Guest View is from mayoral candidate Mark Napier.

Leadership for our future
Oro Valley is a remarkable community. It has been my home for more than 30 years. I am running for mayor because I believe we are not on a sustainable path. No political maneuvering or overly optimistic projections can change the fact that we are significantly dipping into our fund balance, revenues are coming in far below expectations, and millions in capital projects will be delayed or eliminated. While our fund balance remains healthy today, these are not indicators of a sustainable future for our Town. After decades of public service in executive law enforcement leadership, I know that strong communities are built on trust, transparency, and effective leadership. This moment requires experienced leadership. My goal is to bring steady, proven leadership to guide Oro Valley into a fiscally sustainable future, not just for the next few years, but for the next generation. My leadership has been recognized through endorsements from Marana Mayor Jon Post, Sahuarita Mayor Tom Murphy, and Pima County Supervisor Rex Scott.

Public safety and quality of life
Public safety is the foundation of a thriving Town. Families and businesses deserve to feel safe, supported, and heard. As your mayor, I will work to ensure Oro Valley remains one of the safest communities in Arizona while supporting the services, infrastructure, and emergency preparedness that protect our quality of life. I am proud to be the only candidate for mayor endorsed by police organizations and the North Tucson Firefighters. They understand, as I do, that real support for public safety requires more than words. It requires experience, action, commitment, and leadership.

Sensible growth and fiscal responsibility
Growth must be sensible, strategic, and aligned with the values of our residents. I support responsible development that protects Oro Valley’s character while strengthening our economy. Just as important, we must remain disciplined stewards of taxpayer dollars, prioritizing investments that improve roads, parks, and community amenities. This year, revenues are projected to come in 12.5% below estimates, and we are tapping nearly $4 million from our fund balance just to balance the budget. That is not a sustainable long-term strategy. We cannot continue politically driven spending while the costs of providing essential Town services continue to rise. Our revenues must keep pace. That means pursuing strategic and sustainable annexations and creating a welcoming environment for sales-tax-generating businesses to fill vacant storefronts.

Listening and leading together
Good government starts with listening. Residents deserve a strong voice in shaping Oro Valley’s future. My commitment is to lead with accessibility, accountability, and respect for every resident. As mayor, I will maintain regular office hours so residents can engage directly with me, rather than relying on a brief call to the audience. I have spent decades leading large organizations as a senior law enforcement commander, Sheriff of Pima County, administrator at the University of Arizona, and Assistant County Administrator. Oro Valley needs new leadership with real-world executive experience. Leadership measured not by words, but by the quality of action. By working together, we can meet challenges, seize opportunities, and preserve the unique character that makes Oro Valley such a special place to call home.

About Mark Napier
I am a longtime public administrator and leader of large organizations with decades of executive leadership experience in public administration and government. As mayor, I will be steadfastly committed to public safety, fiscal responsibility, and sensible growth. Growth that protects the quality of life, our fiscal sustainability, and all those things that make Oro Valley a wonderful place to live. You can learn more about me at www.napierformayor.org. I am asking for your vote on July 21 to ensure a bright future for our Town. Source used: Mark Napier’s submitted Guest View.

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Learn more about Mark here.

Guest View: Council Candidate Rhonda Pina - Experience, Accountability, and Oro Valley’s Future

Last week we have featured four of the five council candidates speaking on their own behalf. Today’s Guest View is from  Council candidate Rhonda Pina.

Why I am running for Oro Valley Town Council
I am running for Oro Valley Town Council because of my love for the community and to preserve the quality environment that makes it a distinctive place to live and work. I will bring my private-sector and previous Town Council experience when making decisions to ensure long-term benefits to the community.

Experience to address budget challenges
It is widely recognized that the Town is currently facing significant budgetary hurdles. My experience makes me uniquely qualified to assist. Thoughtful leadership actions should be centered on providing the high-quality service delivery that Oro Valley residents have come to enjoy and expect. Currently, I am the Deputy Director for Pima County Community & Workforce Development, which includes oversight of the Kino Veterans Workforce Center. Additionally, I serve on the Tucson Airport Authority Board. Having a 29-year career in commercial and retail banking, serving as a former Oro Valley Town Council member, and participating in civic engagement on regional commissions and Oro Valley boards, I will prioritize public safety, budget accountability, and strategic economic development, as each of these reinforces the others.

Generating revenue while controlling expenses
We must identify realistic short- and long-term goals that generate revenues to support residents’ needs. Diverse approaches include improving the tax base through tourism efforts that support resort industry partners and increase bed tax revenue, evaluating business opportunities to minimize leakage caused by residents going outside Oro Valley to fulfill their consumer needs, and creating partnerships that allow beneficial and resourceful growth without placing a burden on residents. In tandem, we must reduce expenses where applicable and manage Town debt. Oro Valley has much to offer, and it takes an understanding of how to fiscally align the needs and wants of the Town. My priorities align with that goal and are straightforward.

A record of community-centered decisions
My previous Council experience demonstrates the ability to collaborate within community-centered governance. Supporting and voting for the Oro Valley Hands-Free Distracted Driving Ordinance and the Northwest Recharge and Recovery Project to preserve our water, while supporting fiscal responsibility to deliver quality Town services, are examples of the importance of having Council members with leadership experience. I am proud of my endorsement by AZCOPS, the Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs, because of my support for public safety, which provides an economic benefit that aligns with other core services.

Preserving what makes Oro Valley unique
I will continue making decisions and providing oversight that preserves the uniqueness of Oro Valley while providing services and amenities through a fiscally responsible budget. I would be honored once again to serve the Oro Valley community.

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Learn more about Rhonda here.