Barrett's Big Win... Why It Happened

A major victory for Barrett

Last week, LOVE reported on Melanie Barrett’s mayoral victory in Oro Valley. She received 57% of the votes cast to become the next mayor of our town. 

Here's our assessment of why it happened

Voters were happy with the results of eight years of effort by Barrett

Melanie Barrett entered the race with a strong record of service and broad support throughout Oro Valley. During her eight years on the Town Council, many voters felt that the Town had changed for the better. Barrett had been involved in the major decisions that shaped the community.

After years of effort and investment, municipal golf went from being a financial burden on the Town to becoming a valued community asset. The Town weathered the pandemic years successfully. Naranja Park, once only a dream, became a reality. Public safety is rated among the best in the state. The roads remain in good condition. The views have been protected. The former Vistoso Golf Course is now preserved in perpetuity.

Barrett was able to run on that record. She had also run twice before and received record vote totals. Voters knew her, knew her work and appeared satisfied with the Town’s direction. Her victory suggests that many voters saw her as the candidate best prepared to continue that work as mayor.

Napier got his message across... and voters did not "buy it"

Barrett’s record of success meant that Napier needed a compelling campaign theme to make the race competitive. His message was that the Town would face serious financial difficulty within four or five years, that the problem required immediate action and that he was the candidate best equipped to address it. That argument required considerable persuasion because most voters could not see evidence of an approaching crisis. 

Napier never proved that the Town was heading toward dire financial straits. LOVE published several articles explaining why the available financial information did not support that conclusion. Our assessment was that Oro Valley will face financial challenges as it approaches build-out, as many communities do. Those challenges will require careful planning, but they do not establish that the Town is facing a financial crisis.

Positive messaging works better than negative messaging
Barrett’s message remained positive throughout the campaign. She focused on her experience, her record and her plans for Oro Valley, not on attacking her opponent. Napier, on the other hand, decided sometime in June that his financial message was not gaining enough traction and shifted toward increasingly negative attacks on Barrett. He argued that she was not capable of serving as mayor and that he was far more qualified, asking voters to discount her eight years as vice mayor and her earlier service on the Planning and Zoning Commission. He also tried to blame Barrett for the poor performance of the Oro Valley Marketplace, despite the fact that the property had struggled for more than 17 years. That argument also ignored Barrett’s role in negotiating the agreement with the property’s new owner that is now bringing a hotel, apartments, public spaces and other development to the site. As we observed during the campaign, negative attacks may energize a candidate’s existing supporters, but they often do little to persuade independent voters.

The result: Barrett dominated (almost) everywhere

Barrett’s support extended across all of Oro Valley [see panel right, above]. She received more votes than Napier in 10 of the Town’s 11 precincts. Napier’s only victory came in Precinct 194, the Community Center precinct and the center of the four-precinct “golf” voting block we discussed two weeks ago. Even within that block, Barrett carried the other three precincts, although her margins were narrow in traditional Community Center Precincts 077 and 173. The results show that Barrett’s appeal reached well beyond her strongest areas and into communities that had previously been expected to favor Napier.

Hello...I'm Melanie Barrett

While Napier spent much of the campaign producing videos and posting criticism on Facebook, Barrett was out meeting voters. She walked neighborhoods, attended community events and introduced herself directly: “Hello, I’m Melanie Barrett.” That matters in Oro Valley, where many residents are older and are accustomed to meeting candidates in person. They may not spend much time on social media or follow campaign posts on Facebook. Barrett understood that there is no substitute for personal contact, and her street-level campaigning helped turn familiarity into votes.

Voters’ message was clear: "No Change Needed"
Every election sends a message. The message from this one appears to be that most Oro Valley voters are satisfied with the Town’s direction and prefer steady, experienced leadership over promises of dramatic change. They know Melanie Barrett. They like what she has done. They think she is perfectly capable of leading Oro Valley into the future.

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Tomorrow: The Five Factors That Shaped the Oro Valley Council Election

Bits and Pieces

Trails plan sets long-term direction

The Town has adopted the OV Trails Connect Master Plan, a long-range blueprint for expanding and improving Oro Valley’s trail and pathway system. The plan emphasizes better connections among neighborhoods, parks, schools, businesses and recreation areas. It will also help the Town prioritize projects and compete for grant funding. More than 1,500 public comments and responses helped shape the final plan. (Town of Oro Valley Media Release)

Police warn of the dangers of hot cars
The Oro Valley Police Department is reminding residents that the inside of a parked vehicle can become deadly in just minutes. On an 85-degree day, the temperature inside a vehicle can reach 105 degrees in about 10 minutes. Police encourage residents to check the back seat, keep parked vehicles locked and call 911 immediately if they see a child or pet in distress inside a vehicle. (July-August Crimefigher Newsletter)

Marketplace park opens to the public
North Park is now open at the Oro Valley Marketplace. The new public space includes a playground, splash pad and gathering area for small community events. It is the first completed feature of the Marketplace redevelopment and is part of the first phase of the project, which also includes construction of the 320-unit Encantada apartment community. (July-August Oro Valley Vista Newsletter)

Great Horned Owl visits Rancho Vistoso
A Stone Terrace resident photographed a Great Horned Owl during a nighttime visit to the neighborhood. The Vistoso Community Association featured the photograph as its July “Critter of the Month.” Great Horned Owls feed on rabbits, rodents, snakes and other small animals, helping maintain the natural balance of Oro Valley’s desert environment. (Source: Vistoso Community Association July Newsletter)

Community Center parking project finishes early
The Community and Recreation Center parking lot resurfacing project was completed one month ahead of schedule and under budget. The project included removal of the old asphalt, grading, repaving and restriping. It also added 18 parking spaces and three ADA-accessible spaces, improving access for residents using the Community Center and nearby recreational facilities. (June Town Manager Executive Report To Council)

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Barrett Wins Mayor... Dailey, Pina and Wood To Join Council in November

Barrett to Be Oro Valley’s Next Mayor 

Vice Mayor Melanie Barrett earned more than 57% of the approximately 12,700 votes cast to become Oro Valley’s next mayor. Barrett received more votes than challenger Mark Napier in all but two precincts. Those two precincts comprise the “golf” voting block we discussed last week. Two other precincts that we identified as part of that voting block supported Barrett. A small number of ballots remain to be counted. While those votes will change the final totals, they will not change the outcome.

We Project Dailey, Piña and Wood will join the Council

The Town Council race was more closely contested. Rosa Dailey, Rhonda Piña and Matt Wood are the top three vote-getters. Dailey and Piña hold comfortable leads over fourth-place candidate Chris DeSimone. Wood, currently in third place, leads DeSimone by 520 votes.  Though some ballots remain to be counted, we do not believe enough ballots remain to change the third-place result. We therefore project that Dailey, Piña and Wood will be elected to the Oro Valley Town Council.

Some counting still remains

There is still some counting to take place. We believe the remaining ballots are primarily provisional ballots. These are ballots that, for various reasons, must be reviewed to determine their eligibility before they can be counted.

Look for our full analysis of the election results in about a week, once all votes have been counted.

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Vote Today

REALTORS® PAC Makes $6,400 Contribution to Napier Campaign

Realtor PAC weighs in
The REALTORS® of Arizona Political Action Committee (RAPAC) contributed $6,400 to mayoral candidate Mark Napier’s campaign. That represents about 19.5% of the campaign’s total receipts through June 30. Excluding the $5,056.54 that Mark and Marlene Napier loaned the campaign, the RAPAC contribution represents approximately 23% of the money received from other sources.

Napier participated in questionnaire and interview
LOVE asked Napier about the contribution. He told us that he believes he completed an RAPAC questionnaire and participated in a panel interview. He said the questions covered his professional background, public administration, issues facing Oro Valley and his general understanding of real estate issues. 

Barrett says "No" to PAC contributions
We spoke with Vice Mayor Melanie Barrett. Her campaign-finance report shows no PAC contributions. She told LOVE she does not recall whether she was ever contacted by RAPAC. Even if the organization had contacted her, she said she would not have accepted its financial support. Barrett has never accepted PAC contributions in any of her three campaigns because she believes doing so allows her to answer only to Oro Valley residents. 

The value RAPAC get from supporting Napier...

Napier told us that his priorities are:

• Development consistent with existing zoning

• Building heights that do not detract from the Town’s appearance

• Development compatible with surrounding neighborhoods

• Responsible and sustainable development of Oro Valley’s remaining open residential land

We do not know whether any of those priorities align with RAPAC’s. You can do your own assessment by comparing them to those listed in the panel above. The size of the contribution suggests that either RAPAC saw an alignment between its priorities and his or that it expects to receive some other value. 

...could be "access"

Napier told LOVE that any suggestion that the contribution could influence him was “patently absurd....I made no commitments to the Realtors PAC other than to listen." This commitment to listen does assure RAPAC that its views will be heard if he is elected mayor. Whether that opportunity alone explains the $6,400 contribution remains unanswered.

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Will Social Media Spell The Difference?

Social media, videos, robocalls and texts reshape campaign outreach
Campaign signs were once the primary way candidates reached Oro Valley voters. Event today, they remain highly visible throughout town. This election, however, has brought a broader outreach effort. Mayoral candidate Mark Napier and council candidates Chris DeSimone and Rhonda Piña have invested substantially in digital advertising and campaign media. Their reports identify approximately $19,300 in social media advertising, campaign social media and broadly described advertising services. Additional payments were made for websites, video production, consulting, signs and campaign materials. The reports do not separately identify how much was spent on automated telephone calls or campaign text message

Will social media make a difference? Will it sway voters? Will it change the voting blocs we discussed yesterday?

Social media may move the needle a little
There have been relatively few studies focused specifically on municipal elections. Research from larger elections generally finds that political advertising on social media has limited and inconsistent effects. One experiment involving approximately two million voters examined an eight-month digital advertising campaign during the 2020 presidential election. On average, the advertising neither increased nor decreased turnout. The researchers concluded that even a large digital campaign was likely to have only modest mobilization effects. Other research suggests that social media may be more effective at increasing visibility and reinforcing the views of existing supporters than at changing the minds of undecided voters.

Robotexts may work better as reminders than as persuasion
One study involving more than three million voters found that a simple text-message reminder increased turnout by about 0.3 percentage points. That is a small effect, but even a small increase could matter in a close local election.  Research examining text messages intended to change voters’ candidate preferences has generally found little or no measurable effect. The evidence suggests that texts may be more useful for reminding supporters to vote than for persuading them to support a particular candidate.

Robocalls have shown limited results
Randomized studies have generally found that prerecorded political calls have little effect on either turnout or candidate preference. They are relatively inexpensive and allow campaigns to contact many voters quickly, but reaching a voter is not the same as persuading one.

Negative advertising presents another uncertainty
Research on negative campaigning has produced mixed results. Attacks may affect attitudes toward the candidate being criticized, but they can also cause voters to react negatively toward the candidate making the attack. Other research has found that negative advertising is not necessarily more effective than positive advertising. Much depends on whether voters consider the criticism credible, relevant and fair. Repetition may make a claim more familiar, but familiarity does not necessarily make it persuasive.

These methods may make a difference at the margins
Social media advertising, robocalls and robotexts can increase a candidate’s visibility, reinforce the views of supporters and remind people to vote. They appear to be less reliable at changing firmly held opinions.

In a close Oro Valley election, however, even a small effect could influence the outcome. We will know next week whether this extensive outreach made a measurable difference.

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Next Week We’ll Learn Whether Past Elections Foretold the Outcome of the 2026 Election

Past two elections revealed a geographic voting pattern
The results of Oro Valley’s Mayoral 2022 and Council 2024 elections suggest that where voters live may help explain how they vote. In both elections, a group of precincts centered in Rancho Vistoso voted differently from four precincts that include and surround the Town’s municipal golf courses. The candidates and issues changed, but the geographic divide remained.

Rancho Vistoso provided Winfield’s winning margin in 2022
In the 2022 mayoral election, Joe Winfield narrowly defeated former Oro Valley Police Chief Danny Sharp in the Mayoral election. This result was a bit surprising because Danny Sharp was a well-known, well respected figure in our Valley for many years. Sharp carried four precincts by a combined 920 votes. Winfield overcame that deficit by carrying  seven other precincts by 1,251 votes. His strength in Rancho Vistoso and the surrounding precincts provided the margin needed for his 285-vote townwide victory. That was close!

The 2022 council vote showed the same divide
The 2022 council race followed a similar pattern. Melanie Barrett, Joyce Jones-Ivey and Josh Nicolson won a majority of the council votes in nine of the Town’s eleven precincts. Their strongest support came from Rancho Vistoso. Their weakest results came from the precincts that include the Town’s two municipal golf courses, although they still received almost 48% of the vote there.

The same pattern appeared again in 2024
The 2024 council election produced another geographic split. Mary Murphy and Mo Greene received their strongest support in the golf-oriented precincts. Elizabeth Robb and Tim Bohen performed better in the Rancho Vistoso-oriented precincts. Murphy also received strong support in the Rancho Vistoso precincts. Robb received strong support in the community center precints. The election also produced substantial undervoting, as many residents used only one or two of their three available council votes.

A pattern is not a prediction... but tomorrow we will know more
Two elections do not establish how Oro Valley residents will vote in the future. Candidates, issues and turnout change from one election to the next. Still, the results of 2022 and 2024 suggest that Oro Valley has two identifiable geographic voting coalitions. And, as the panel shows, one is much larger in terms of voters than the other. The 2026 election will show whether that pattern continues or whether voters create a different one. 

Tomorrow: Will Social Media Spell The Difference?

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