Next Week We’ll Learn Whether Past Elections Foretold the Outcome of the 2026 Election

Past two elections revealed a geographic voting pattern
The results of Oro Valley’s Mayoral 2022 and Council 2024 elections suggest that where voters live may help explain how they vote. In both elections, a group of precincts centered in Rancho Vistoso voted differently from four precincts that include and surround the Town’s municipal golf courses. The candidates and issues changed, but the geographic divide remained.

Rancho Vistoso provided Winfield’s winning margin in 2022
In the 2022 mayoral election, Joe Winfield narrowly defeated former Oro Valley Police Chief Danny Sharp in the Mayoral election. This result was a bit surprising because Danny Sharp was a well-known, well respected figure in our Valley for many years. Sharp carried four precincts by a combined 920 votes. Winfield overcame that deficit by carrying  seven other precincts by 1,251 votes. His strength in Rancho Vistoso and the surrounding precincts provided the margin needed for his 285-vote townwide victory. That was close!

The 2022 council vote showed the same divide
The 2022 council race followed a similar pattern. Melanie Barrett, Joyce Jones-Ivey and Josh Nicolson won a majority of the council votes in nine of the Town’s eleven precincts. Their strongest support came from Rancho Vistoso. Their weakest results came from the precincts that include the Town’s two municipal golf courses, although they still received almost 48% of the vote there.

The same pattern appeared again in 2024
The 2024 council election produced another geographic split. Mary Murphy and Mo Greene received their strongest support in the golf-oriented precincts. Elizabeth Robb and Tim Bohen performed better in the Rancho Vistoso-oriented precincts. Murphy also received strong support in the Rancho Vistoso precincts. Robb received strong support in the community center precints. The election also produced substantial undervoting, as many residents used only one or two of their three available council votes.

A pattern is not a prediction... but tomorrow we will know more
Two elections do not establish how Oro Valley residents will vote in the future. Candidates, issues and turnout change from one election to the next. Still, the results of 2022 and 2024 suggest that Oro Valley has two identifiable geographic voting coalitions. And, as the panel shows, one is much larger in terms of voters than the other. The 2026 election will show whether that pattern continues or whether voters create a different one. 

Tomorrow: Will Social Media Spell The Difference?

- - -

Deputy Town Manager Cornelison Leaving Town For New Career

A major move

Oro Valley Deputy Town Manager Chris Cornelison has confirmed that he is leaving the Town after sixteen years of service. Cornelison will become a financial advisor with TCI Wealth Advisors, a local firm. He told LOVE that serving the Oro Valley community has been a privilege and that he looks forward to continuing to help people in a more personal, one-on-one role.

A long career with the Town
Cornelison joined the Town of Oro Valley in 2010 and rose through several management positions, becoming assistant town manager in 2017 and deputy town manager in 2021. He also served as interim town manager from 2022 until Jeff Wilkins became town manager in 2023.

A major contributor
During his tenure, Cornelison became one of the Town’s most visible senior administrators. His responsibilities included budget preparation, capital projects, parks and recreation, golf operations, public works, land matters and the redevelopment of the Oro Valley Marketplace. As deputy town manager, he oversaw Information Technology, Parks and Recreation, Public Works and the Town Clerk’s Office.

Cornelison also led a review of the Town’s 457 retirement plan about five years ago. This is a tax-advantaged savings plan offered mainly to state and local government employees.The initiative resulted in a new plan and improved services for Town employees. In 2025, he received the ICMA Credentialed Manager designation, recognizing his professional experience and commitment to local government management.

Sets a new direction
Cornelison’s move into financial advising builds on his interest in helping people plan for their futures. He said he looks forward to continuing to serve the community in a different way. We wish him well.

Presents town an opportunity to consider structure of town manager's office
Cornelison’s departure creates a natural opportunity for the Town to reconsider the structure of the Town Manager’s Office. Senior management positions shape how responsibilities are divided, how departments communicate and how decisions move through the organization. A vacancy at this level allows the Town to determine whether the existing arrangement still reflects its current needs.

That question is especially relevant as Oro Valley approaches build-out and faces slower revenue growth. The deputy town manager position may remain important and may ultimately be filled. The vacancy also provides an opportunity to consider whether the same duties, reporting relationships and management structure should continue unchanged.

- - -

Read more about Chris and his work in Oro Valley here.

Oro Valley Is Not Marana: Town Comparisons Need Context

Marana is not Oro Valley’s model
Oro Valley officials, town staff, council members, and candidates often look to Marana when discussing growth, economic development, revenue, land use, and public services. That is understandable. Marana is nearby. It is active. It is growing. It is often in the news. But proximity does not make the two towns truly comparable.

The two towns are different in important ways
Marana is much larger than Oro Valley. It has more room to grow. Its 78,000 acres are more than three times Oro Valley’s 23,000 acres. Its planning area is also more than three times larger than Oro Valley’s. Much of Marana is flatter and easier to build on. Interstate 10 also passes through Marana, giving it direct access to a major transportation corridor. That helps support highway-oriented commercial development, logistics-related uses, employment centers, and larger-scale projects.

Oro Valley does not have Marana’s I-10 location advantage. It has no direct I-10 frontage. The Tangerine Road corridor runs about 10 miles from I-10 in Marana to La Cañada Drive in Oro Valley. 

That means Oro Valley’s economic growth strategy must be different from Marana’s. Oro Valley’s future economic development must be shaped around its own geography, limited land supply, mature residential character, and community expectations.

Community values shape community choices
Both towns value quality of life, but they express that value differently. Marana’s General Plan emphasizes managed growth, economic development, infrastructure, parks, trails, downtown revitalization, open space, and conservation as the town prepares for continued expansion. Those values may sound familiar to Oro Valley residents. The difference is context. In Oro Valley, building height matters more. Density matters more. View protection matters more. Compatibility with surrounding neighborhoods matters more. These values are central to Oro Valley’s identity because most major land-use decisions now occur next to, or near, established neighborhoods.

Marana is also Oro Valley’s partner
None of this means Oro Valley should ignore Marana. In some areas, the two towns should work together. Water is one example. Oro Valley, Marana, and Metro Water District are partners in the Northwest Recharge, Recovery and Delivery System (NWRRDS), a regional effort to recover stored CAP water and deliver renewable water supplies to each service area.

Tourism is another example. Oro Valley and Marana have partnered on regional bicycling promotion, the Tucson Bicycle Classic, Project Echelon Gran Fondo, and the M.O.V.E. Across 2 Ranges hiking event. Transportation is another shared interest, as shown by the Tangerine Road corridor, which connects I-10 in Marana to La Cañada Drive in Oro Valley. These are useful partnerships because the interests are regional. They are different from using Marana as a benchmark for what Oro Valley should become.

Lessons are useful. False comparisons are not.
Marana is not wrong for making Marana decisions. Oro Valley would be wrong, however, to assume that Marana’s path is Oro Valley’s path. The better approach is simple. Learn from Marana where the lesson applies. Partner with Marana for mutual benefit. But measure Oro Valley by what fits Oro Valley, not by what fits Marana.

- - -

Bits and Pieces...Election Style

Napier overlooks Barrett’s ten years of hands-on Oro Valley experience

Melanie Barrett has served this community for more than ten years. She first served on the Oro Valley Planning and Zoning Commission. For the past eight years, she has served on the Town Council and as Vice Mayor. During that time, she has been directly involved in the Town’s budgets, land-use decisions, water policy, public safety funding, parks and recreation planning, road maintenance priorities, annexation discussions, and long-range financial planning. She has not watched Oro Valley from the outside. She has governed it. (Watch KGUN 9 Barrett interview here).

That is why a Mark Napier campaign video is so hard to take seriously. In the video, Napier compares his background to Barrett’s by describing her as a “part-time elected official” and listing only “Town Council Member” under her professional experience. That is campaign framing. It is not a fair description of what Barrett has done for Oro Valley. 

Napier has significant professional experience. That is not in dispute. The question for voters is what kind of experience matters most in this election. Napier offers outside executive and law-enforcement experience. Barrett offers direct Oro Valley governing experience. She knows the Town’s issues because she has been working on them for years. To say that she lacks the experience to lead Oro Valley going forward is not just unfair. It is ridiculous. It is patently absurd.

Click to enlarge

A commenter on Napier's facebook page had a visceral reaction to his video: "Ignoring someone’s accomplishments and achievements while also putting down stay at home moms is wild. But hey, I can do it too. Without the whole degrading various moms all over town… that’s gross dude." The commenter included a visual which we is on the panel at right. Enjoy.

DeSimone says that a photo of a six story building could jeopardize future "Uptown" annexation efforts
In a campaign video, council candidate Chris DeSimone said that a building shown in some competitors’ campaign materials is not in Oro Valley. He alleges that the building pictured is part of the Uptown redevelopment of the former Foothills Mall in unincorporated Pima County. DeSimone argued that using that building to warn voters about tall buildings in Oro Valley could make future annexation discussions with the developer of Uptown, Bourn Companies, more difficult.

We just do not see the problem.

First, Oro Valley residents have made clear that they do not want tall buildings in Town. Oro Valley’s zoning rules limit building height. Future development inside Oro Valley would be subject to the Town’s zoning and land-use approval process. If the Uptown property were ever annexed, existing buildings and previously approved development rights would only be affected if the Bourn sought new approvals, changed the project, or agreed to different terms as part of an annexation agreement. And these exceptions could be granted as part of the annexation agreement.

Second, Uptown is part of Oro Valley’s long-range annexation discussion, but it is a very long-term target. It is not contiguous with Oro Valley’s current boundaries. Arizona annexation law requires the territory proposed for annexation to be contiguous to the city or town. According to the Town Council’s January annexation discussion, annexing the former Foothills Mall area first would require annexing residential areas that together include roughly 2,500 residents. That would be needed just to bring the Town’s boundary to the mall. It would also make the annexation more complicated, more expensive to serve, and dependent on broad residential participation. 

Residents in that area have not shown interest in becoming part of Oro Valley. LOVE reported in 2020 that the last time the Town tried to convince the Foothills Mall area to join Oro Valley, it received a “resounding no.”  That history matters. It means Uptown may be worth watching as a long-range possibility, but it is not the Town’s practical near-term annexation strategy.

DeSimone says other candidates "might be afraid to answer tough questions"

In a separate campaign posting, DeSimone asserts that he has been more available to voters than the other candidates. He says he is “the one candidate of the seven total” who has held the most public events to encourage input and conversation. That would be a legitimate campaign point if documented. He goes further, saying that the “lack of public engagement” by some competitors “should worry the voters” and suggesting they “might be afraid of answering tough questions.” DeSimone says he will continue meeting with residents monthly if elected and hopes one or two fellow council members will join him. 

- - - 

Napier Says Oro Valley Marketplace Lacks Vision and Leadership… But Is He Right?

Does Napier's claim "hold water"?
A campaign video posted on mayoral candidate Mark Napier’s site states that “The Oro Valley Marketplace is not living up to its potential due to failed leadership and no long-term vision for its development.” The claim is not substantiated. It is simply an assertion. The video gives the impression, especially to those who do not know the Marketplace’s history, that the empty storefronts, and there are many, are the fault of the current Town Council.

History says otherwise
LOVE has documented the Marketplace since its inception. Indeed, LOVE’s founding grew out of the efforts of residents who opposed Town financial support for the center. They did not like the agreement the Town made with the developer, Vestar. Vestar was to receive an estimated $23.2 million in rebated sales tax revenue over the center’s first ten years.

These residents fought to place that choice on the ballot so residents could approve or reject it. Bedazzled by the promise of an “upscale” mall like La Encantada in the foothills, and with the support of the Paul Loomis-led council, 58% of residents, in March 2006, voted in favor of the Town’s financial support for the center. They did not get that upscale mall. A subsequent Arizona Supreme Court ruling sharply restricted such arrangements by requiring that public payments provide direct and proportionate public benefits.

The Marketplace was troubled from the beginning
LOVE chronicled this history through 2019. We concluded that the Marketplace was doomed from its inception because it was not an economically feasible venture. Even with ongoing government support, it was, at best, only marginally successful. The only council that could be blamed for its failure, if any council could be blamed, would be the council in office when the decision was made to financially support the center in 2005. Indeed, the Marketplace would never have been built at that time had it not been for the financial support to which the Town had agreed.

The Marketplace struggled throughout its history. There were always vacant storefronts. No upscale stores located there. Its gross revenues fell far short of the plan. After ten years, the center had generated $16.4 million in sales tax revenue for Vestar. That was far less than the projected $23.2 million. Store after store failed. Remember Dick’s Sporting Goods? Best Buy? Ashley Furniture?

During most of those years, from 2010 to 2018, the Town was overseen by the Hiremath Council. That council included current council candidate Rhonda Piña and Joe Hornat, a vocal Napier supporter. The Hiremath Council did nothing to fix the plight of the center. And, really, what could it have done?

The Winfield Council inherited the problem
By 2019, the first full year of the Winfield Council, there were 22 open businesses and 23 empty storefronts. By October, the Marketplace had a new owner. Vestar sold the Oro Valley Marketplace to Town West Realty. The reported purchase price was $45.15 million.

Town West presented a new vision
Town West had a vision. It planned to transform the Marketplace from a primarily retail center into a mixed-use development. Town West believed that only a mixed-use development could provide the density needed to make the shopping center successful. The Town Council agreed. From 2022 to 2023, Town staff and the council worked with Town West to shape the redevelopment into a plan that could revitalize the Marketplace.

Council shaped it the Oro Valley way
The initial proposal from Town West contemplated approximately 730 apartments in two six story buildings. They sought numerous exceptions from the Town’s existing height and setback requirements. These exceptions were not consistent with the Town’s General Plan. Nor were they consistent with what residents wanted. The initial plan included a “public-private partnership” that would have required the Town to underground a wash and build and maintain an entertainment center.

After much work, the final agreement allowed 320 apartments in two three-story buildings, with the buildings limited to 39 feet. It also included a hotel. The agreement added an important condition: The agreement added an important condition: The hotel in Area 4 must receive its certificate of occupancy before certificates of occupancy may be issued for any apartments in Area 4. The initial recreational amenities would be the responsibility of the developer rather than becoming a Town-funded obligation. If the project succeeds, the council can later decide whether it wants to underground the wash to accommodate another hotel and food-court-type concepts in the entertainment district.

Redevelopment is now moving forward
Drive through the Marketplace and you can see that construction is in progress on the north side of the property. It includes one of the two approved apartment buildings, the hotel, intersection and pedestrian improvements, and the neighborhood park. Surf Thru Car Wash is ready to go on the south side. There is also a new restaurant where Red Lobster used to be. 

Napier should explain his alternative
If Napier does not see that as leadership, then we ask: What would he have done, and would it have achieved a better result? We believe that question is legitimate. We see a center that is being revitalized and is on the move again. We see a center whose redevelopment plan was shaped with the input and effort of Town staff and council. We see that as leadership.

But Napier’s video does not agree. So we wonder: What would he have done differently to make this redevelopment a reality? Would he have approved six-story apartment buildings? Would he have approved 720 apartments? Would he have committed millions of dollars in Town money upfront to fund the entertainment center?

Those are legitimate questions Napier ought to answer instead of simply trying to rewrite history.

- - -

“Neighbor Joe” Makes a Good Story But It Does Not Explain Oro Valley’s Finances

A simple story with a serious accusation
Mayoral candidate Mark Napier recently compared Oro Valley to his fictional neighbor Joe, a man who misses his income forecast, withdraws money from savings, postpones home improvements, and reduces maintenance because he cannot afford it. Napier concludes that Joe is in financial trouble and says the Town is being managed in the same way. He then accuses candidates who disagree of being “in denial for personal and political reasons.” It is an effective campaign story. It is not an accurate explanation of Oro Valley’s finances.

Yes. town's financial pressures are real
Napier is right that Oro Valley’s revenue outlook has weakened. The Town substantially reduced its sales tax forecast after collections fell below expectations. The fiscal year 2027 budget took action. Council removed or deferred approximately $11.6 million of proposed capital spending. None of this spending was essential. Council directed General Fund departments to reduce operating and maintenance spending by one-half of one percent. It reduced excess police pension contribution by approximately $1.5 million while maintaining a fully funded police pension, These are real adjustments; responsively done. 

Click To Enlarge

But, let's get the facts right
But Napier does not see it that way. Instead, his "Neighbor Joe Story" says the Town missed its “income projections” by 12.5 percent. That wording makes it sound as though all Town revenue fell 12.5 percent below budget. It did not. The figure applies only to projected local sales tax revenue. As we have previously explained in several articles, much of that shortfall resulted a construction project that did not begin when Town staff assumed they would. It was a timing issue. It is not evidence of a permanent, long-term revenue decline. Yes, the staff forecast miss was substantial, and staff should be held accountable for it. However, a shortfall in one major revenue category is not the same as a 12.5 percent shortfall in all Town income. 

In fact, the approximately $4 million shortfall represents about 3.7 percent of the Town’s anticipated total revenues.

A Fund balance is not a rainy-day account
The “Neighbor Joe Story” also says the Town regularly takes large sums from “long-term savings just to balance the budget.” That description treats every reduction in the General Fund balance as evidence that the Town is living beyond its means. This is where Napier gets it wrong. A municipal fund balance is not merely a household savings account. It includes money available for planned capital transfers, debt service, and other authorized uses, as well as the amount needed to satisfy the Town’s reserve policy. A decline in the General Fund balance does not necessarily mean the Town has dipped below its required reserve or used emergency savings to pay routine operating expenses, any more than a change in your bank balance means you are going broke.

Which projects and which maintenance?
Also in the “Neighbor Joe Story", Napier says that the Town is delaying or canceling “very significant improvements” and scaling back normal maintenance because it lacks the money. He does not identify which capital projects have been deferred, why they are essential, why they were deferred, or how the delays affect residents. Nor does he identify which maintenance work will not be performed. 

It has been the history of Oro Valley budgeting that proposed capital plans routinely change as projects are reprioritized, redesigned, rescheduled, or moved outside the five-year planning period. A change in proposed capital spending is not, by itself, proof that the Town cannot afford to maintain its essential infrastructure.

A household comparison has limits
A household analogy can make a complicated issue easier to understand, but only when the comparison accurately reflects the facts. A municipality operates multiple funds, receives revenues that are legally restricted to specific purposes, transfers money between funds, pays debt service, and finances assets that may serve residents for decades. Oro Valley’s finances cannot be accurately evaluated by treating the General Fund as a checking account and the entire fund balance as personal savings.

Questions require more than an analogy
Napier has raised fair questions about revenue forecasting, capital priorities, spending discipline, and long-term financial planning. Those questions should be debated. However, declaring the Town to be in serious financial trouble requires more than comparing it to an overspending homeowner. It requires identifying which recurring expenditures exceed recurring revenues, which deferred projects materially affect residents, which maintenance needs are going unmet, and when the Town is projected to fall below its required reserve. The “Neighbor Joe Story" provides none of that.

Challenges are not the same as mismanagement

All candidates agree that Oro Valley faces financial challenges. Sales tax revenues have flattened, staff badly overestimated the timing of major construction projects, and the Town must carefully manage spending as it approaches build-out. Those are legitimate election issues. They do not, by themselves, prove that the Town is financially mismanaged.

The most troubling part of Napier’s “Neighbor Joe” story is his suggestion that those who disagree with his conclusion are “in denial for personal and political reasons.” There is no evidence that Melanie Barrett, during her eight years on the Town Council, ever acted out of personal or political interest in assessing the Town’s finances. Voters deserve a fuller explanation of why Napier would imply otherwise.

- - -

Happy 250 America...

America is turning 250! 

LOVE wishes all of our readers a safe, happy and memorable Fourth of July.

Oro Valley will mark the occasion Saturday with America’s Birthday Bash at James D. Kriegh Park. Join friends and neighbors for an evening of community celebration, entertainment and patriotic fun.

Remember to vote. Nothing could be more patriotic.

250 Years and Counting!

- - -