Under-Voting Helps Your Preferred Candidates

Primary ballots in mail
The Pima County Recorder has mailed the ballots for the August primary. The ballot lists five Oro Valley council candidates.

You can vote for three. Should you?

Undervotes are common in Oro Valley council elections 
There is no requirement that you vote for three. You just can't vote for more than three.  The vote that you do not cast is called an "undervote."

Our analysis of Oro Valley election history reveals that the number of votes cast depends on the level of voter enthusiasm for the candidates.  The 2018 election resulted in a "sea change" on council.  99% of voters chose among six candidates.  They elected three new council candidates.

There was far less voter enthusiasm in 2016. There were six council candidates. 11% of the voters did not vote all three votes. Voters simply lacked enthusiasm for a second or third candidate. There were 4,438 undervotes in that election.

How undervoting helps your preferred candidate(s)
Voting for only those candidates you really want to represent you actually helps them win the election. Not simply because you voted for them; but because undervotes reduce the threshold to win a seat in August; and, if that does not happen, to qualify to be on the ballot in November.

The reason for this is that the number of votes needed to win or qualify decreases in direct proportion to the total number of votes cast. The threshold is determined by dividing the total number of ballots cast by the number of seats available. That total is then divided by 2.  The three candidates receiving the highest vote totals are declared winners if they received more votes than the threshold number of votes. As you can see from the example, undervotes can make a huge difference.
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The county sent the ballots on July 8.  You can call (520) 724-4330) if you do not receive yours.

2018 Election in Pictures: "Incumbents Steady Decline"

In a few short years, Council Member's Hornat, Snider and Waters decreased in voter popularity.

They were able to garner 51% of the vote in the 2015 recall election. These same council persons earned less than 42% of the votes for council in 2018. The high vote percent in 2014 was an anomaly as there was only one candidate running against these three.

Their decrease in voter popularity follows exactly the same path as Mayor Hiremath's vote decline. Apparently, voters were unable to distinguish among the Mayor and these three.

Five Key Election Factors: #4: You Can "dress-up the pig" but it is still a "pig"

This is the second of our postings on the five factors that played out in the 2018 Oro Valley election.
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Factor 4: You can "dress-up the pig" but it is still a pig
The pig, in this case, is the town owned 45-hole "country club." This is also known and "The Oro Valley Community Center".

The town purchased this property in 2015 from the major campaign contributor to the Majority-4, Hector Lopez (HSL). The purchase of the golf course enabled Lopez to buy the El Conquistador Resort.  Based on a town sponsored survey taken long before the purchase, a golf course and a community center were never among the 30 plus desires of the community.

The purchase of the El Conquistador Country Club veered Oro Valley off course. It split the council. It caused a referendum effort, an effort rejected by the town on technical grounds...
...despite thousands of lawful signatures. The referendum was rejected by a town clerk who, we are absolutely convinced, allowed a clerical mistake to go "unnoticed" until submission time. The thousands who signed the referendum never got to vote on it. Apparently, they never forgot the callousness shown by this town clerk, and by extension, the Majority-4, to the people of Oro Valley.

Now, the town was the enemy. Trust was lost.
And the leaders of the town, the Majority-4, were behind it.

Anyone with an open mind could see the many signs that this acquisition was going to be a financial disaster

• The sport of golf is on the decline
• The course and the community center were expensive to operate
• The course and the community center required millions of dollars in investment
• Supporting these losses required an increase in the sales tax
• This year, they approved a $6 million bond. The funds will be used to replace aging and leaking golf course irrigation lines ($3.8 million) and to remodel the outdated community center ($2.2 million)
• The golf course had a decreasing membership
• The clubhouse, which is now the community center, was a run down, non code compliant building
• And, when real accounting takes place, as documented on these pages in LOVE, this facility costs the town millions in losses.

Rather than propose alternatives, the Majority-4 "doubled-down" on their decision
Mayor Hiremath and his majority moved ahead with the purchase. They raised the sales tax to pay for operating losses. They faced and barely won a recall election. Then, this year, the council "doubled down" on their investment. They authorized a $3.8 million bond to pay for golf course improvements.

Voters saw all this.

Voters know a pig when they see one
In this case, it's a pig that gobbles up money that could be used for purposes with a much greater benefit to the many who live in Oro Valley.

The 2018 election told the Majority-4 that: "If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it is a duck"... regardless of what the Majority-4 tell you.

Leaders who do not recognize and deal with reality are not the leaders that the people want.
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Next Up:
Factor 3: "Views Matter"

2018 Election In Pictures: People Made Up Their Minds Early

There were 15,171 votes cast in the 2018 Oro Valley Mayoral Election. 82% of these were votes cast via mail in ballots. Apparently, people had already made up their minds long before the polls opened.

The impact of a ban on vote harvesting is clearly seen in this election. Harvesting, if it had occurred, would have been seen in the number of provisional ballots cast. In this election, provisional ballots were a mere 1% of all ballots cast.

Mayor-elect Winfield held a healthy margin of victory, regardless of which method of voting voters chose. Take a look at the results by voting mode.

Five Key Election Factors: #5 A "Straight Up" Election

This is the first posting of our analysis of the 2018 Oro Valley Mayoral Election. There will be 5 in total, one each for the 5 factors that impacted the election
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Factor 5: This was a "straight-up" election
The 2018 Oro Valley election was marked with excellent voter turnout, led by an energized electorate. This election was the first since 2006 where two candidates faced-off in election without any intervening factors. It was a "straight up" election. The result: challenger and now Mayor-elect Joe Winfield garnered a whopping 59% of the vote.

The past 3 Mayoral elections (2010, 2014 and 2015) were tainted for three different reasons.
May 2010
Hiremath benefited from what we believe to have been "ballot harvesting". That is the practice of bringing batches of 'voted' mail-in ballots to the polls. It is now an illegal practice.  These ballots are counted after the election. They are provisional ballots.

Recall that Hiremath defeated Mike Zinkin by 30 votes. Hiremath won only because provisional votes, those harvested and dropped at the polling places, broke almost entirely in Hiremath's favor. Strange?Were the ballots influenced in some fashion? Something was wrong, but it never was investigated.

August 2014
Hiremath benefited from a change in the timing of the election. The election was moved from February to August, per state law. Almost 4,000 fewer votes were cast in that election than in 2010. Most independent voters never received ballots. It was a partisan election. The ratio of votes cast in Hiremaths' favor, 62%, approximately mirrored the ratio of registered republicans to democrats in Oro Valley at that time.

August 2015
Hiremath benefited from voter confusion regarding Joe Winfield's withdrawal from the Mayoral race. Winfield had graciously withdrawn to allow support to coalesce around challenger Pat Straney. He withdrew after ballots were printed. Thus, his name was on the ballot. Hiremath barely earned 50% of the 14,800 mayoral votes cast.

The 2018 election was different story
This election was the first time that Hiremath faced a single candidate at a time when "ballot harvesting" was illegal! Add to this the fact that, by 2018, Oro Valley independent voters, with the help of the county recorder and substantial social media notice, actually knew they were supposed to request ballots.  They did so. The result: Mayor-Elect Joe Winfield earned 59% of record number of more than 15,000 mayoral votes cast.
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Next up
Factor 4: You can "dress-up the pig" but it is still a pig

2018 Election In Pictures: "Sea Change"

"Sea Change"
The 2018 Oro Valley Mayoral Election was marked by a major swing in votes away from Mayor Hiremath. This downward swing was a continuation of what happened during the 2015 recall election, an election he won by a mere 400 plus votes.

From 2014, when he easily defeated his opponent, to 2018, when he was resoundingly defeated,  the vote swing away from Mayor Hiremath was more than 5,300 votes. That represents a "sea change" in the way voters perceived the Mayor.

One of the other takeaways from this chart is that Mayor Hiremath's cumulative vote margin in four elections was negative: -232 votes. Yes. Mayor Hiremath won three elections but lost the fourth by such a significant margin that it wiped out  all of his margins of previous election victories.
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