Latest Oro Valley Five-Year Forecast Shows Fiscal Stability

Five year forecast shows no financial cliff
Finance Director David Gephart presented preliminary five-year financial forecast to the Finance Director David Gephart to the Budget and Finance Commission yesterday. The forecast shows that Oro Valley’s revenues and expenditures remain closely aligned through FY 2030/31, with reserves maintained at the Town’s 25% policy level.

Nothing in the forecast indicates that the Town is currently in financial distress or forecasted to enter one during the five-year period. The forecast shows steady, though slow, revenue growth driven largely by local sales tax while noting that construction-related revenues are expected to decline gradually as the community approaches buildout. 

Four key funds considered
The overall conclusion of the forecast comes from looking at the Town’s major operating funds together rather than individually. [Panel right] These include the General Fund, Highway Fund, Capital Fund, and the Community Center operations, including golf. The funds are interconnected through a series of planned transfers, with the General Fund and Capital Fund supporting certain activities in other funds. When viewed together, as the Town presented in its summary chart, the forecast indicates that revenues and expenditures across these major funds remain in balance over the five-year period while overall reserves remain stable.

Four key revenue assumptions
As with any long-range financial forecast, the accuracy of the forecast will depend on how assumptions unfold over time. There are four key revenue assumptions: Redevelopment of the Oro Valley Marketplace will generate approximately $2.2 million in new sales tax revenue beginning in FY 2026/27; construction-related tax revenues will gradually decline as available land for development diminishes; the incorporation of San Tan Valley will dilute Oro Valley’s per-capita state-shared revenues by about 1.6% annually; and remaining revenues will continue to grow modestly in line with historical trends.

Cost control and modest spending growth drive spending forecast
On the spending side, the forecast assumes that the Town will manage spending efficiently. Personnel costs are projected to grow at about 3 percent annually, reflecting pay adjustments, police step increases, and rising benefit costs, with no new positions included in the five-year outlook. Operating expenses are expected to increase at roughly 2 to 3 percent per year, consistent with inflation. The forecast also includes ongoing capital commitments, such as annual funding for the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve and continued investment in roadway maintenance and improvements. Together, these spending assumptions help explain how the Town expects to maintain balanced operations over the forecast period.

And if the forecast does not come to pass, the Town has a “Budget Stabilization Plan”
The Town also has a Budget Stabilization Plan in place should revenues fall short of forecast. The plan [panel left] is structured to protect essential services as long as possible, with more significant impacts only if revenue shortfalls become large. The plan outlines a series of graduated responses based on the size of any projected shortfall, beginning with steps such as reducing discretionary spending, delaying the filling of vacant positions, and postponing capital projects, and progressing to measures such as hiring freezes, use of fund balances, and service reductions. In more severe scenarios, it includes program reductions, workforce impacts, and consideration of fee or tax increases.

Finance Director Gephart cautions 
Though Gephart said that the five-year forecast aligns with current Council direction and that, based on that direction, staff has developed a financial forecast that maintains balanced operations and continues existing service levels, he did emphasize many cautions. During the presentation to the Commission, he placed greater emphasis on the uncertainties within the forecast, noting that its results depend on key assumptions and that it does not include all longer-term staff-desired capital projects. He also discussed factors that could affect outcomes, including sales tax performance and broader economic conditions. Perhaps these are simply the cautions of a prudent financial advisor, but presenting a forecast and then focusing much of the discussion on what could “go wrong” does raise the question of how confident he is that the forecast will be achieved.

Next Up: Gephart will present the forecast to the town council tonight
The commissioners did not raise objections to the forecast. Rather, their comments focussed on gaining a general understanding of the assumptions and recognizing that the forecast is subject to change based on economic conditions. We will see what council members think tonight when Gephart presents the forecast to them.
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Napier Kicks Off Mayoral Campaign

Napier meets with supporters to launch campaign
Former Pima County Sheriff Mark Napier formally kicked off his mayoral campaign Saturday at Noble Hops, telling supporters that he has already gathered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot and plans to submit them soon. The gathering marked the formal start of his campaign ahead of Oro Valley’s July 21 mayoral primary election, a campaign on which we first reported last month. 

Supporters and community figures attend
The gathering had the feel of a campaign kickoff, with Napier thanking those who attended and encouraging supporters to help build momentum as the election season begins. Among those present were Michael and Bonnie Quinn, founders of Rockin’ 4 Heroes. Napier thanked them for their support and for helping bring the gathering together,. Council hopefuls Rhonda Piña and Jake Herrington also attended the event.

Highlights a career in public service rooted in fiscal conservatism
Napier told the group that his decision to run for mayor grows out of a lifetime spent in public service. He began his law enforcement career in 1981 and later served four years as Pima County Sheriff. Over the course of his career he led large organizations and managed substantial public budgets, experience he said prepared him for the challenges facing Oro Valley’s town government.

Napier offered an example from his law enforcement career, noting that while serving as a Tucson Police Department captain he was given a $24 million budget to convert a former Kmart building into a police station. The project was completed $1 million under budget. He cited that experience as an illustration of fiscal discipline in public administration, telling supporters, “What I bring to the table: A fiscal conservative base and decades of experience.”

Believes fiscal pressures are in the town's future
“Our expenditures and our revenues are not tracking in parallel lines. Inevitably those lines cross… our revenues are no longer supporting our expenditures.”  He said the town’s services, including public safety, parks and roads, depend on maintaining financial balance. “What real leaders do is they look out and imagine the future ten years from now… and then they say to themselves… what do I have to do today to ensure that we get to that place ten years from now?” In a separate conversation with LOVE, Napier cautioned that annexations of retail-rich areas, such as those discussed in a recent council meeting, will take time and are not certain to occur.

Campaign begins ahead of July election
Napier concluded by thanking those in attendance and asking for their support as the campaign moves forward. He noted that running a campaign requires both volunteers and financial support, encouraging those present to help spread the word or contribute to the campaign. With the July primary election approaching, the kickoff event signaled the beginning of what is expected to be an active mayoral race in Oro Valley.

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Bits and Pieces

Stay away from Kreigh Park Saturday morning, another big event
Residents planning to use James D. Kreigh Park Saturday morning may want to make other plans. The Oro Valley Triathlon and Duathlon Festival returns from 7 to 11 a.m., bringing nearly 500 competitors from 27 states and Canada to the Oro Valley Aquatic Center and the park area. The USA Triathlon-sanctioned event includes sprint-distance triathlon races and duathlon events, with participants ranging in age from 10 to 85. Traffic control will be in place from 4 a.m. through late morning, and town officials expect delays and heavy activity around the park while the races are underway.  (Source: Town of Oro Valley Media Release)

Water rate increase process moves forward
In January, LOVE reported that the Town of Oro Valley was considering a modest water rate adjustment. Last week, the town council formally approved a resolution giving public notice that a rate increase is being considered and starting the required public review process. The proposal currently under discussion would increase the monthly base rate for most residential customers by about $1.86, while leaving the per-gallon commodity charge unchanged. A public hearing is scheduled for June 3, when the council will decide whether to adopt the increase. If approved, the new rates would take effect about 30 days later, likely in early July.  

Traffic signal coming to Tangerine at Musette
The Oro Valley Town Council voted last week to proceed with installing a traffic signal at the intersection of Musette Drive and Tangerine Road. Town traffic engineer Paul Kiesler told council the intersection narrowly missed meeting the formal traffic “warrant” by about seven vehicles during peak periods, but he recommended moving forward because of limited sight distance caused by the vertical curve on Tangerine and increasing traffic generated by Naranja Park. Two council members expressed concern about installing a signal before the warrant is fully met, citing the town’s past practice of waiting for objective thresholds. Ultimately, the council approved the project on a 6-0 vote with Vice Mayor Barrett abstaining. The project is already included in the town’s capital improvement plan with approximately $750,000 budgeted for construction. 

Town restores original alignment for Naranja multi-use path
The town council last week approved shifting $400,000 in previously budgeted capital funds to restore the original alignment of the Naranja Drive multi-use path. When the project was first designed, rising construction estimates forced the town to trim costs through “value engineering,” including a plan that would have diverted path users through Naranja Park rather than keeping the route directly along Naranja Drive. With $300,000 no longer needed for an Oro Valley Drive drainage project and $100,000 from a La Cañada-Cobo road improvement that can now wait because a nearby development will change traffic patterns, staff recommended redirecting the funds to the path project. The council unanimously approved the change, allowing the path to remain continuous along Naranja as originally intended.

Council looks for ways to improve cell coverage north of Tangerine
The Oro Valley Town Council last week discussed persistent complaints about poor cell phone reception in Rancho Vistoso and other areas north of Tangerine Road. Vice Mayor Melanie Barrett and Council Member Mary Murphy requested the item after residents raised concerns about dropped calls, HOA gate systems that rely on cellular service, and possible public safety issues. Police officials also reported that weak signals can interrupt mobile data connections in patrol vehicles, slowing access to dispatch information. Because the town does not control cellular networks, the council unanimously directed staff to continue engaging wireless providers, identify possible town-owned sites for telecommunications infrastructure, and return with options to encourage improved service.

Town Centre rezoning: Residents weigh in at first neighborhood meeting
As previously reported in September and January, the Town Council is proposing to rezone portions of the Town-owned land at Rooney Ranch to expand commercial uses along Oracle Road, limit one portion (Area 3) to residential (either apartments or townhomes), and convert another (Area 4) from single-family lots to permanent open space with trails. At the first neighborhood meeting held several weeks ago, staff reviewed those concepts, including reduced building heights and elimination of the previously permitted five-story hotel. Residents generally supported preserving Area 4 as open space but raised concerns about traffic impacts at Oracle Road and Push View Lanes, residential density in Area 3, trail access near nearby neighborhoods, fencing and wildlife movement, water supply, long-term maintenance costs, and whether the Town should pursue a more distinctive “town center” design rather than conventional commercial development. A second neighborhood meeting is planned before the proposal moves to the Planning and Zoning Commission and Town Council for public hearings this spring.

Spring pavement preservation work underway
The Town of Oro Valley has begun its annual spring pavement preservation program, which includes surface treatments on a number of local streets to help extend pavement life and reduce the need for more costly reconstruction later. Work will occur in phases over the coming weeks and may involve temporary lane restrictions, brief delays, and construction activity in residential areas while crews apply treatments and allow surfaces to cure. Residents are encouraged to check the town’s online information page to see which streets are included and when work is expected in their area. ((Source: Town of Oro Valley Media Release)
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Council Picks "Plan B" For Annexing Retail Rich Ina and Oracle

Council targets $1.6 million in new sales tax revenues from annexing three Oracle-Ina Centers

Annexation of retail-rich commercial areas is part of Oro Valley’s financial strategy. The three shopping centers at the intersection of Oracle and Ina roads are a prime target. Two of them already meet the state’s annexation requirement because they touch Oro Valley’s boundaries. Together, the three centers could generate about $1.6 million annually in sales tax revenue for the town with minimal added cost. How annexation of all three centers might occur was the focus of last week’s Oro Valley Town Council strategic planning study session.

But Center owners see no benefit in annexation

The town has approached the owners of the commercial properties, but there has been no interest in annexation. Several say they already receive acceptable service from Pima County. What they would prefer is a financial incentive, such as a rebate of sales tax revenue. State law, however, prohibits that approach. While the town can offer inducements to encourage annexation, those typically involve infrastructure improvements such as roads or other public facilities. Those types of incentives have little relevance for the existing shopping centers.

So, the town will turn to Plan B: Include nearby residential areas in the annexation

The town is moving to Plan B. Under this approach, nearby residential neighborhoods would be included with the commercial properties in a proposed annexation area. Arizona law requires annexation petitions to be signed by property owners representing more than 50 percent of both the owners and the assessed property value within the area. Including nearby homes could help meet those thresholds and allow the commercial centers to be annexed as part of the same action. 

The approach may have promise. Vice Mayor Melanie Barrett said residents living near one of the Ina and Oracle shopping centers have approached her asking why their neighborhoods have not already been annexed into Oro Valley.

Plan B does have its challenges

There are a number disadvantages to Plan B. 

• First, it requires convincing far more people to support annexation than a simple discussion with a single property owner. This would require a significant outreach effort by the town. It also opens the discussion for negotiations.
• Second, some residents, or perhaps outside groups, could organize to oppose the annexation.
• Third, the strategy is more complicated to structure because the annexation area must be carefully designed to meet state requirements for both property ownership and assessed value. 
• Fourth, including residential properties generally reduces the financial attractiveness of the proposal. Residential areas produce less revenue and increase the town’s service obligations, particularly for police, road maintenance, and administrative services. According to staff, adding residential support to annex the two areas south of Ina Road, for example, would add about $116,000 in annual costs while generating only about $40,000 in additional revenue. This is a net cost of roughly $76,000 per year.

Plan B could guide future annexations of Foothills and LaEncantada

Plan B could provide a roadmap for pursuing the annexation of the former Foothills Mall and LaEncantada

• The Foothills Mall area is not contiguous with Oro Valley’s current boundaries. Annexing it will require bringing in residential areas that together include roughly 2,500 residents.
• Annexing La Encantada will require residential participation, which may not be readily available. During the Westward Look annexation discussions several years ago, some residents in nearby neighborhoods expressed little interest in becoming part of Oro Valley.
• The cost of serving larger areas such as these could be significant. For example, the roads in those areas are currently maintained by Pima County, and the town would need a much clearer understanding of road conditions and long-term maintenance costs before moving forward.

For now, the safest direction for the town and the one most likely to produce results in the next several years are the Ina–Oracle annexations. That is where the council directed staff to focus their effort.

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Meet Council Hopeful Matt Wood

In the past few weeks, LOVE has presented information about five of the six individuals who plan to seek one of the three open Town Council seats in the upcoming primary election. Each is currently gathering the more than 500 signatures required by mid-March. Today, we feature the sixth hopeful, Matt Wood.

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Meet Matt Wood

Matt Wood grew up in the Portland, Oregon area and spent 43 years working for a national cement company, relocating several times during his career to locations including Kansas City and Colorado. He holds a business degree from Oregon State University and an MBA in marketing from Portland State University. Wood and his wife, Susan, chose Southern Arizona for retirement and purchased their first home in Oro Valley in 2014, moving here full time after he retired in 2019. The couple has one daughter and two grandchildren. Wood is also an avid golfer and regularly walks the course at the Oro Valley Country Club.

Became involved in the community in service to the Rancho Vistoso community
After retiring, Wood said he wanted to give back to the community where he lives. He began by volunteering on the Rancho Vistoso Community Association finance committee and later was elected to the HOA board. Since 2020 he has served on the board of the association, which represents about 6,200 homes, serving as treasurer, vice president, and most recently president. Wood was also appointed to the town’s Parks and Recreation Advisory Board in 2020.

Involved in the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve effort
Wood lives near the former Vistoso golf course and became involved early in community discussions about its future. He attended meetings on proposals for the property and participated in community efforts that led to preservation of much of the land as the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve. Wood also supported the effort financially and has volunteered in restoration activities at the site. He has also served on the town’s Parks and Recreation Advisory Board during discussions on projects such as the Naranja Park expansion and the preserve acquisition. In his role on the Rancho Vistoso Community Association board, he led community discussions that resulted in the removal of aging neighborhood streetlights, saving residents significant costs.

Feels confident to help the town meet future financial challenges
Wood said he decided to run this year after learning that several incumbents would not seek reelection and believing the timing created an opportunity to serve. Drawing on his experience working with the Rancho Vistoso HOA and town advisory boards, he believes Oro Valley will face financial pressures as construction-related revenues decline and the community approaches buildout. In his view, the council will need to work with residents to determine which services and priorities the community values most as future financial decisions are made.

Brings a consensus-oriented approach to decision making
Wood describes his leadership style as collaborative and focused on reaching consensus. Drawing on his experience working with HOA board members and residents, he said he prefers to gather input, evaluate options, and move toward solutions that address concerns while allowing decisions to move forward.

You can learn more about Matt and sign his petition if you wish here. 

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Bits and Pieces

Kriegh park use highlights need to balance town revenue goals and resident access
Kriegh Park will be largely unavailable for casual resident use for the third consecutive weekend. This weekend, the Oro Valley Aquatic Center is hosting the Age Group State Swim Meet, running Thursday through Sunday, and attendees are expected to use much of the available parking. The previous two weekends also brought heavy park activity with wine festivals held at the site. In addition, during most weekdays the park’s fields are reserved for organized baseball and softball beginning around 5 p.m., further limiting opportunities for casual resident use of the park. These programs run year-round. Finding parking is difficult. Walking the perimeter during games can also be difficult, with foul balls, lawn chairs, and children riding bikes around the fields. 

The town’s goal of attracting visitors who spend money locally needs to be balanced with maintaining reasonable access for residents.

New police headquarters is well underway...20 police units may locate there

At Monday’s second council strategic planning session, council and staff discussed police facilities. As we reported in August, the town purchased an existing building for a future police headquarters. The building is about 50,000 square feet. Planning is underway to determine how it will house roughly 20 police operational units and support the department’s needs over the next 10 to 20 years. 

At present, the plan is for dispatch operations to remain in the La Canada headquarters because of the cost of relocating the communications infrastructure. Once the police department moves into the new facility, the remaining space in the La Canada building will likely be used by other town departments that need additional room, with the Water Utility Department mentioned as a possible future occupant.

Renovation may cost far less than anticipated

Staff delivered some good news regarding the cost of renovating the new space at the Monday strategy session.  Early planning indicates that about 70 percent of the existing building can be reused with only interior modifications, such as moving walls and repurposing rooms. Because much of the structure can remain intact, staff believe the renovation may be completed for only a few million dollars, depending on final design and construction estimates.  The town will first look for available cash within its capital improvement program to fund the work. If borrowing is required, the town will likely arrange a direct bank loan rather than issuing bonds, which staff said would keep financing costs lower.

Firefighters host community cookout tomorrow at Naranja Park archery range

The North Tucson Firefighters Association are hosting the Jose Samaniego Memorial Archery Shoot and BBQ Challenge, a community event that combines a 3D archery competition with a first-responder cookout. The event is from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. at the Naranja Park archery range. The event raises funds for programs such as “Shop with a Firefighter,” which supports local families during the holidays. The event also honors fallen Golder Ranch firefighter Jose Samaniego. Residents are welcome to stop by to watch the competition, enjoy barbecue, and meet local first responders.

March 15:  Celebrate Oro Valley with the Tucson Roadrunners

Oro Valley residents are invited to attend Oro Valley Day with the Tucson Roadrunners on March 15 at 4 p.m. when the Roadrunners host the San Jose Barracuda at the Tucson Convention Center. The event, organized with the Town of Oro Valley and the Greater Oro Valley Chamber of Commerce, offers discounted tickets for Oro Valley attendees and includes a pregame St. Patrick’s day themed gathering with music, food, and community booths highlighting Oro Valley organizations. Town officials are expected to take part in the festivities, including a ceremonial puck drop. Mayor Winfield is expected to ride the Zamboni.  More information and ticket details are available here.

Traffic alert for Sunday's Arizona Distance Classic

Drivers should expect minor delays Sunday morning, March 8, due to the Arizona Distance Classic running event in Oro Valley. The half marathon begins at 6:30 a.m., followed by the quarter marathon and 5K at 7:05 a.m., with the race starting and finishing at Roche Tissue Diagnostics on Innovation Park Drive. Portions of Innovation Park Drive, Rancho Vistoso Boulevard, Tangerine Road, and nearby residential streets will experience traffic control, lane restrictions, and some temporary closures as runners move along the course. Motorists are advised to allow extra travel time and watch for runners, volunteers, and law enforcement directing traffic. (Source: Town of Oro Valley Media Release)

Mid-year financial report shows stable finances but sales tax shortfall

The town’s fiscal year 2025-26 mid-year financial report shows that Oro Valley’s finances remain generally stable, though several trends bear watching. Local sales tax revenue, particularly construction sales tax, is running significantly below budget and is expected to finish the year about $4.8 million short. Some of that reflects development projects that were assumed in the budget but have not yet begun. Town departments, however, are holding spending below budget, helping offset part of the revenue gap. Golf operations at the Community Center are performing strongly and are expected to exceed budget, providing a bright spot in the results. Even with the sales tax shortfall, the town projects that its General Fund balance will remain about $4 million above the 25% reserve policy at year end. (Source: Finance Director David Gephart report to council on March 4, 2026)

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Celebrate America’s 250th Anniversary With Oro Valley Historical Society (Part 2)

Continuing our Semiquincentennial Series
In March, the Oro Valley Historical Society continues to "march on" with the second part of our three-part series celebrating 250 years as an independent nation.

At the Museum this month: America’s Semiquincentennial and Arizona Statehood” Exhibit
This exhibit is In the Pusch House Museum. It will be available for viewing until March 28 when we will begin the third part of our series “America’s Semiquincentennial and the Founding of Oro Valley”. The Museum, located at historic Steam Pump Ranch is open every Saturday from 9 a.m. until noon. Self-guided tours are complimentary, and volunteers will be on site to provide additional information and assist with any questions.

March 14: Two guided walking tours of the ranch
On Saturday, March 14, our naturalist returns to guide visitors on two gentle walking tours of the Ranch to share stories about the plants, animals, and people who lived and still live on the Ranch. The tours start at 9:15 and 10:30 a.m. from the porch of the Pusch House Museum, and both end in the Society-maintained Heritage Garden. Participants will be able to view a replica of a Hohokam pit house as well as the plants now blooming in the garden. 

March 14 and March 28: Two donation drives with Gap Ministries
Also, on that day and again on March 28, Gap Ministries will be at the Pusch House Museum requesting donations for the local families they serve. Items needed are toilet brushes and plungers, toilet bowl cleaner, toilet paper, and air fresheners. Make a difference, and help a family in need.

March 16: Gardening program at the Oro Valley Public Library
Now, let’s march over to the Oro Valley Public Library at 10 a.m. on March 16 when we will sponsor Catesby Suter, a University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Master Gardener. Her presentation is entitled “Caring for Iris and Other Bulbs”. The history of iris cultivation, planting techniques, working with the soil, and dividing bulbs will be discussed. Yes, you can grow iris plants here, and Catesby will help you beautify your gardens with her knowledge! 

March 7 and 8: Visit us at the "Foodie" Festival
The Oro Valley Spring Foodie, Art, and Wine Festival returns to the Oro Valley Marketplace, sponsored by Art State Arizona, and the Oro Valley Historical Society will be there! Come visit us Saturday and Sunday, March 7 and 8 from 10 a.m. – 4 p.m. Enjoy the food vendors, beer and wine area, family friendly fun, live music, and all the wonderful Arizona artists and creative businesses who will be there. We hope you will join us. History loves company!

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