Barrett Wins Mayor... Dailey, Pina and Wood To Join Council in November

Barrett to Be Oro Valley’s Next Mayor 

Vice Mayor Melanie Barrett earned more than 57% of the approximately 12,700 votes cast to become Oro Valley’s next mayor. Barrett received more votes than challenger Mark Napier in all but two precincts. Those two precincts comprise the “golf” voting block we discussed last week. Two other precincts that we identified as part of that voting block supported Barrett. A small number of ballots remain to be counted. While those votes will change the final totals, they will not change the outcome.

We Project Dailey, Piña and Wood will join the Council

The Town Council race was more closely contested. Rosa Dailey, Rhonda Piña and Matt Wood are the top three vote-getters. Dailey and Piña hold comfortable leads over fourth-place candidate Chris DeSimone. Wood, currently in third place, leads DeSimone by 520 votes.  Though some ballots remain to be counted, we do not believe enough ballots remain to change the third-place result. We therefore project that Dailey, Piña and Wood will be elected to the Oro Valley Town Council.

Some counting still remains

There is still some counting to take place. We believe the remaining ballots are primarily provisional ballots. These are ballots that, for various reasons, must be reviewed to determine their eligibility before they can be counted.

Look for our full analysis of the election results in about a week, once all votes have been counted.

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REALTORS® PAC Makes $6,400 Contribution to Napier Campaign

Realtor PAC weighs in
The REALTORS® of Arizona Political Action Committee (RAPAC) contributed $6,400 to mayoral candidate Mark Napier’s campaign. That represents about 19.5% of the campaign’s total receipts through June 30. Excluding the $5,056.54 that Mark and Marlene Napier loaned the campaign, the RAPAC contribution represents approximately 23% of the money received from other sources.

Napier participated in questionnaire and interview
LOVE asked Napier about the contribution. He told us that he believes he completed an RAPAC questionnaire and participated in a panel interview. He said the questions covered his professional background, public administration, issues facing Oro Valley and his general understanding of real estate issues. 

Barrett says "No" to PAC contributions
We spoke with Vice Mayor Melanie Barrett. Her campaign-finance report shows no PAC contributions. She told LOVE she does not recall whether she was ever contacted by RAPAC. Even if the organization had contacted her, she said she would not have accepted its financial support. Barrett has never accepted PAC contributions in any of her three campaigns because she believes doing so allows her to answer only to Oro Valley residents. 

The value RAPAC get from supporting Napier...

Napier told us that his priorities are:

• Development consistent with existing zoning

• Building heights that do not detract from the Town’s appearance

• Development compatible with surrounding neighborhoods

• Responsible and sustainable development of Oro Valley’s remaining open residential land

We do not know whether any of those priorities align with RAPAC’s. You can do your own assessment by comparing them to those listed in the panel above. The size of the contribution suggests that either RAPAC saw an alignment between its priorities and his or that it expects to receive some other value. 

...could be "access"

Napier told LOVE that any suggestion that the contribution could influence him was “patently absurd....I made no commitments to the Realtors PAC other than to listen." This commitment to listen does assure RAPAC that its views will be heard if he is elected mayor. Whether that opportunity alone explains the $6,400 contribution remains unanswered.

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Will Social Media Spell The Difference?

Social media, videos, robocalls and texts reshape campaign outreach
Campaign signs were once the primary way candidates reached Oro Valley voters. Event today, they remain highly visible throughout town. This election, however, has brought a broader outreach effort. Mayoral candidate Mark Napier and council candidates Chris DeSimone and Rhonda Piña have invested substantially in digital advertising and campaign media. Their reports identify approximately $19,300 in social media advertising, campaign social media and broadly described advertising services. Additional payments were made for websites, video production, consulting, signs and campaign materials. The reports do not separately identify how much was spent on automated telephone calls or campaign text message

Will social media make a difference? Will it sway voters? Will it change the voting blocs we discussed yesterday?

Social media may move the needle a little
There have been relatively few studies focused specifically on municipal elections. Research from larger elections generally finds that political advertising on social media has limited and inconsistent effects. One experiment involving approximately two million voters examined an eight-month digital advertising campaign during the 2020 presidential election. On average, the advertising neither increased nor decreased turnout. The researchers concluded that even a large digital campaign was likely to have only modest mobilization effects. Other research suggests that social media may be more effective at increasing visibility and reinforcing the views of existing supporters than at changing the minds of undecided voters.

Robotexts may work better as reminders than as persuasion
One study involving more than three million voters found that a simple text-message reminder increased turnout by about 0.3 percentage points. That is a small effect, but even a small increase could matter in a close local election.  Research examining text messages intended to change voters’ candidate preferences has generally found little or no measurable effect. The evidence suggests that texts may be more useful for reminding supporters to vote than for persuading them to support a particular candidate.

Robocalls have shown limited results
Randomized studies have generally found that prerecorded political calls have little effect on either turnout or candidate preference. They are relatively inexpensive and allow campaigns to contact many voters quickly, but reaching a voter is not the same as persuading one.

Negative advertising presents another uncertainty
Research on negative campaigning has produced mixed results. Attacks may affect attitudes toward the candidate being criticized, but they can also cause voters to react negatively toward the candidate making the attack. Other research has found that negative advertising is not necessarily more effective than positive advertising. Much depends on whether voters consider the criticism credible, relevant and fair. Repetition may make a claim more familiar, but familiarity does not necessarily make it persuasive.

These methods may make a difference at the margins
Social media advertising, robocalls and robotexts can increase a candidate’s visibility, reinforce the views of supporters and remind people to vote. They appear to be less reliable at changing firmly held opinions.

In a close Oro Valley election, however, even a small effect could influence the outcome. We will know next week whether this extensive outreach made a measurable difference.

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Next Week We’ll Learn Whether Past Elections Foretold the Outcome of the 2026 Election

Past two elections revealed a geographic voting pattern
The results of Oro Valley’s Mayoral 2022 and Council 2024 elections suggest that where voters live may help explain how they vote. In both elections, a group of precincts centered in Rancho Vistoso voted differently from four precincts that include and surround the Town’s municipal golf courses. The candidates and issues changed, but the geographic divide remained.

Rancho Vistoso provided Winfield’s winning margin in 2022
In the 2022 mayoral election, Joe Winfield narrowly defeated former Oro Valley Police Chief Danny Sharp in the Mayoral election. This result was a bit surprising because Danny Sharp was a well-known, well respected figure in our Valley for many years. Sharp carried four precincts by a combined 920 votes. Winfield overcame that deficit by carrying  seven other precincts by 1,251 votes. His strength in Rancho Vistoso and the surrounding precincts provided the margin needed for his 285-vote townwide victory. That was close!

The 2022 council vote showed the same divide
The 2022 council race followed a similar pattern. Melanie Barrett, Joyce Jones-Ivey and Josh Nicolson won a majority of the council votes in nine of the Town’s eleven precincts. Their strongest support came from Rancho Vistoso. Their weakest results came from the precincts that include the Town’s two municipal golf courses, although they still received almost 48% of the vote there.

The same pattern appeared again in 2024
The 2024 council election produced another geographic split. Mary Murphy and Mo Greene received their strongest support in the golf-oriented precincts. Elizabeth Robb and Tim Bohen performed better in the Rancho Vistoso-oriented precincts. Murphy also received strong support in the Rancho Vistoso precincts. Robb received strong support in the community center precints. The election also produced substantial undervoting, as many residents used only one or two of their three available council votes.

A pattern is not a prediction... but tomorrow we will know more
Two elections do not establish how Oro Valley residents will vote in the future. Candidates, issues and turnout change from one election to the next. Still, the results of 2022 and 2024 suggest that Oro Valley has two identifiable geographic voting coalitions. And, as the panel shows, one is much larger in terms of voters than the other. The 2026 election will show whether that pattern continues or whether voters create a different one. 

Tomorrow: Will Social Media Spell The Difference?

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Deputy Town Manager Cornelison Leaving Town For New Career

A major move

Oro Valley Deputy Town Manager Chris Cornelison has confirmed that he is leaving the Town after sixteen years of service. Cornelison will become a financial advisor with TCI Wealth Advisors, a local firm. He told LOVE that serving the Oro Valley community has been a privilege and that he looks forward to continuing to help people in a more personal, one-on-one role.

A long career with the Town
Cornelison joined the Town of Oro Valley in 2010 and rose through several management positions, becoming assistant town manager in 2017 and deputy town manager in 2021. He also served as interim town manager from 2022 until Jeff Wilkins became town manager in 2023.

A major contributor
During his tenure, Cornelison became one of the Town’s most visible senior administrators. His responsibilities included budget preparation, capital projects, parks and recreation, golf operations, public works, land matters and the redevelopment of the Oro Valley Marketplace. As deputy town manager, he oversaw Information Technology, Parks and Recreation, Public Works and the Town Clerk’s Office.

Cornelison also led a review of the Town’s 457 retirement plan about five years ago. This is a tax-advantaged savings plan offered mainly to state and local government employees.The initiative resulted in a new plan and improved services for Town employees. In 2025, he received the ICMA Credentialed Manager designation, recognizing his professional experience and commitment to local government management.

Sets a new direction
Cornelison’s move into financial advising builds on his interest in helping people plan for their futures. He said he looks forward to continuing to serve the community in a different way. We wish him well.

Presents town an opportunity to consider structure of town manager's office
Cornelison’s departure creates a natural opportunity for the Town to reconsider the structure of the Town Manager’s Office. Senior management positions shape how responsibilities are divided, how departments communicate and how decisions move through the organization. A vacancy at this level allows the Town to determine whether the existing arrangement still reflects its current needs.

That question is especially relevant as Oro Valley approaches build-out and faces slower revenue growth. The deputy town manager position may remain important and may ultimately be filled. The vacancy also provides an opportunity to consider whether the same duties, reporting relationships and management structure should continue unchanged.

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Read more about Chris and his work in Oro Valley here.

Oro Valley Is Not Marana: Town Comparisons Need Context

Marana is not Oro Valley’s model
Oro Valley officials, town staff, council members, and candidates often look to Marana when discussing growth, economic development, revenue, land use, and public services. That is understandable. Marana is nearby. It is active. It is growing. It is often in the news. But proximity does not make the two towns truly comparable.

The two towns are different in important ways
Marana is much larger than Oro Valley. It has more room to grow. Its 78,000 acres are more than three times Oro Valley’s 23,000 acres. Its planning area is also more than three times larger than Oro Valley’s. Much of Marana is flatter and easier to build on. Interstate 10 also passes through Marana, giving it direct access to a major transportation corridor. That helps support highway-oriented commercial development, logistics-related uses, employment centers, and larger-scale projects.

Oro Valley does not have Marana’s I-10 location advantage. It has no direct I-10 frontage. The Tangerine Road corridor runs about 10 miles from I-10 in Marana to La Cañada Drive in Oro Valley. 

That means Oro Valley’s economic growth strategy must be different from Marana’s. Oro Valley’s future economic development must be shaped around its own geography, limited land supply, mature residential character, and community expectations.

Community values shape community choices
Both towns value quality of life, but they express that value differently. Marana’s General Plan emphasizes managed growth, economic development, infrastructure, parks, trails, downtown revitalization, open space, and conservation as the town prepares for continued expansion. Those values may sound familiar to Oro Valley residents. The difference is context. In Oro Valley, building height matters more. Density matters more. View protection matters more. Compatibility with surrounding neighborhoods matters more. These values are central to Oro Valley’s identity because most major land-use decisions now occur next to, or near, established neighborhoods.

Marana is also Oro Valley’s partner
None of this means Oro Valley should ignore Marana. In some areas, the two towns should work together. Water is one example. Oro Valley, Marana, and Metro Water District are partners in the Northwest Recharge, Recovery and Delivery System (NWRRDS), a regional effort to recover stored CAP water and deliver renewable water supplies to each service area.

Tourism is another example. Oro Valley and Marana have partnered on regional bicycling promotion, the Tucson Bicycle Classic, Project Echelon Gran Fondo, and the M.O.V.E. Across 2 Ranges hiking event. Transportation is another shared interest, as shown by the Tangerine Road corridor, which connects I-10 in Marana to La Cañada Drive in Oro Valley. These are useful partnerships because the interests are regional. They are different from using Marana as a benchmark for what Oro Valley should become.

Lessons are useful. False comparisons are not.
Marana is not wrong for making Marana decisions. Oro Valley would be wrong, however, to assume that Marana’s path is Oro Valley’s path. The better approach is simple. Learn from Marana where the lesson applies. Partner with Marana for mutual benefit. But measure Oro Valley by what fits Oro Valley, not by what fits Marana.

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