No election is decided by a single factor, and this one was no exception. Our analysis suggests that five factors largely explain the Council race. Candidates with clear, positive messages performed best. The Town’s traditional voting blocks again influenced the outcome. Undervoting changed the mathematics of the election. Higher turnout in the larger Rancho Vistoso Block gave additional weight to the candidates who were strongest there. Finally, personal voter contact and familiarity helped some candidates connect with voters in ways that others could not.
Candidates’ messages mattered
In this election, we believe the messages presented by the five candidates made a significant difference. As we noted yesterday in our analysis of the mayoral race, voters responded positively to Melanie Barrett’s theme that the Town is on the right track. They rejected Mark Napier’s argument that Oro Valley was heading toward financial trouble. Positive messages often have an advantage over negative ones.
Two of the three successful Council candidates, Rosa Dailey and Matt Wood, also presented positive campaigns. Both argued that Oro Valley was moving in the right direction and was well positioned to meet the financial challenges ahead. They asked voters to continue the Town’s current course rather than change it.
Rhonda Piña likewise offered a positive message. She campaigned on experienced, financially responsible leadership that would protect public safety while strengthening Oro Valley’s long-term financial future through thoughtful economic development. Her campaign focused on what she would do rather than on what she believed was wrong with the Town.
Chris DeSimone and Jake Herrington were not elected. They finished within a few votes of each other. DeSimone emphasized efficient government, stronger revenues and annexation but did not clearly explain why he was uniquely qualified to accomplish those goals. Herrington spoke about preparing Oro Valley for the future through thoughtful leadership and long-term financial planning but offered few specifics beyond saying he would listen to everyone. Voters appear to have found the positive, forward-looking messages of Dailey, Wood and Piña more compelling.
Two weeks ago, we asked whether Oro Valley’s traditional voting blocks would again influence the Council election. The answer appears to be yes. [see panel right]
The Community Center Block consists of four precincts with 5,255 registered voters. The Rancho Vistoso Block consists of seven precincts with 9,535 registered voters. Together, they account for virtually all of Oro Valley’s voters.
The results show that candidates generally received their strongest support within their natural voting base. Rosa Dailey and Matt Wood, both Rancho Vistoso residents, dominated that block, consistently finishing ahead of the other candidates. Their strong performance there created a substantial advantage that carried through the townwide count.
The Community Center Block told a different story. Rhonda Piña performed considerably better there than Jake Herrington or Chris DeSimone. Although none of the three matched Dailey’s or Wood’s dominance in Rancho Vistoso, Piña’s stronger support in the Community Center Block helped separate her from the other two candidates competing for the third Council seat.
Undervoting affected the outcome
Council elections differ from mayoral elections because voters may vote for up to three candidates. Some votrers choose not to use all three votes. Instead, they vote only for the candidates they most want to see elected. This is known as undervoting.
Undervoting matters because every vote cast for another candidate increases that candidate’s total. A voter who is uncertain about a third choice may decide not to cast that vote rather than help elect someone the voter does not strongly support.
In this election, voters cast an average of 2.5 Council votes per ballot. That means many voters selected only two candidates. Based on the voting totals, we estimate that roughly half of all ballots were undervoted.
That pattern benefited candidates who became a voter’s clear first or second choice. It also reduced the total number of votes available to all candidates, making every vote more valuable.
Turnout favored the Rancho Vistoso Block
We measure voter enthusiasm in part by turnout. Overall turnout in this election was 40.4%, below the approximately 43% turnout recorded in each of the previous two elections. Most of that decline occurred in the Community Center Block.
Turnout in the Rancho Vistoso Block reached 41.7%, compared with 38.3% in the Community Center Block. While the difference may appear modest, it represented hundreds of additional voters in the Town’s largest voting block. That gave greater weight to the candidates who were strongest there.
Rosa Dailey, Matt Wood and Melanie Barrett invested a considerable amount of time going door to door, asking residents whether they had voted and encouraging them to return their ballots. Some of that effort was visible on Election Day. The parking lot at the Oro Valley Public Library remained busy throughout the day as voters dropped off their ballots. That sustained ground campaign likely contributed to the higher turnout in the Rancho Vistoso Block.
Personal contact and familiarity mattered
Local elections are personal. Rosa Dailey and Matt Wood (and Melanie Barrett) spent months knocking on doors, attending neighborhood meetings and community events, and talking directly with voters. Those personal conversations helped build trust long before ballots were mailed.
Familiarity also mattered. Rhonda Piña served on the Oro Valley Town Council from 2016 through 2020, giving many voters a record they already knew. Dailey, Wood and Barrett had each established a visible presence in the community over a number of years before this campaign.
In local elections, voters often support candidates they know personally or have seen actively engaged in the community over time. Two candidates had neither of the qualities. Jake Herrington entered the race with less name recognition than the successful candidates. Chris DeSimone (and mayoral candidate Mark Napier) had no established, widely recognized history of involvement in Town affairs before this election.
What the results tell us
No single factor explains why Rosa Dailey, Rhonda Piña and Matt Wood won election to the Town Council. Together, however, these five factors provide a persuasive explanation of the outcome.
Perhaps the broader lesson is that Oro Valley elections are still won one voter at a time. Social media, campaign videos, text messages and automated phone calls may increase awareness, but they did not replace face-to-face campaigning. Candidates who communicated a clear, positive message, built relationships over time, generated enthusiasm in key precincts and encouraged their supporters to vote were ultimately the candidates voters elected.
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