Last week, LOVE reported on Melanie Barrett’s mayoral victory in Oro Valley. She received 57% of the votes cast to become the next mayor of our town.
Here's our assessment of why it happened
Barrett was able to run on that record. She had also run twice before and received record vote totals. Voters knew her, knew her work and appeared satisfied with the Town’s direction. Her victory suggests that many voters saw her as the candidate best prepared to continue that work as mayor.
Napier got his message across... and voters did not "buy it"
Voters were happy with the results of eight years of effort by Barrett
Melanie Barrett entered the race with a strong record of service and broad support throughout Oro Valley. During her eight years on the Town Council, many voters felt that the Town had changed for the better. Barrett had been involved in the major decisions that shaped the community.
After years of effort and investment, municipal golf went from being a financial burden on the Town to becoming a valued community asset. The Town weathered the pandemic years successfully. Naranja Park, once only a dream, became a reality. Public safety is rated among the best in the state. The roads remain in good condition. The views have been protected. The former Vistoso Golf Course is now preserved in perpetuity.
Napier got his message across... and voters did not "buy it"
Barrett’s record of success meant that Napier needed a compelling campaign theme to make the race competitive. His message was that the Town would face serious financial difficulty within four or five years, that the problem required immediate action and that he was the candidate best equipped to address it. That argument required considerable persuasion because most voters could not see evidence of an approaching crisis.
Napier never proved that the Town was heading toward dire financial straits. LOVE published several articles explaining why the available financial information did not support that conclusion. Our assessment was that Oro Valley will face financial challenges as it approaches build-out, as many communities do. Those challenges will require careful planning, but they do not establish that the Town is facing a financial crisis.
Positive messaging works better than negative messaging
Barrett’s message remained positive throughout the campaign. She focused on her experience, her record and her plans for Oro Valley, not on attacking her opponent. Napier, on the other hand, decided sometime in June that his financial message was not gaining enough traction and shifted toward increasingly negative attacks on Barrett. He argued that she was not capable of serving as mayor and that he was far more qualified, asking voters to discount her eight years as vice mayor and her earlier service on the Planning and Zoning Commission. He also tried to blame Barrett for the poor performance of the Oro Valley Marketplace, despite the fact that the property had struggled for more than 17 years. That argument also ignored Barrett’s role in negotiating the agreement with the property’s new owner that is now bringing a hotel, apartments, public spaces and other development to the site. As we observed during the campaign, negative attacks may energize a candidate’s existing supporters, but they often do little to persuade independent voters.
The result: Barrett dominated (almost) everywhere
Voters’ message was clear: "No Change Needed"
Every election sends a message. The message from this one appears to be that most Oro Valley voters are satisfied with the Town’s direction and prefer steady, experienced leadership over promises of dramatic change. They know Melanie Barrett. They like what she has done. They think she is perfectly capable of leading Oro Valley into the future.
Barrett’s message remained positive throughout the campaign. She focused on her experience, her record and her plans for Oro Valley, not on attacking her opponent. Napier, on the other hand, decided sometime in June that his financial message was not gaining enough traction and shifted toward increasingly negative attacks on Barrett. He argued that she was not capable of serving as mayor and that he was far more qualified, asking voters to discount her eight years as vice mayor and her earlier service on the Planning and Zoning Commission. He also tried to blame Barrett for the poor performance of the Oro Valley Marketplace, despite the fact that the property had struggled for more than 17 years. That argument also ignored Barrett’s role in negotiating the agreement with the property’s new owner that is now bringing a hotel, apartments, public spaces and other development to the site. As we observed during the campaign, negative attacks may energize a candidate’s existing supporters, but they often do little to persuade independent voters.
The result: Barrett dominated (almost) everywhere
Barrett’s support extended across all of Oro Valley [see panel right, above]. She received more votes than Napier in 10 of the Town’s 11 precincts. Napier’s only victory came in Precinct 194, the Community Center precinct and the center of the four-precinct “golf” voting block we discussed two weeks ago. Even within that block, Barrett carried the other three precincts, although her margins were narrow in traditional Community Center Precincts 077 and 173. The results show that Barrett’s appeal reached well beyond her strongest areas and into communities that had previously been expected to favor Napier.
Hello...I'm Melanie Barrett
While Napier spent much of the campaign producing videos and posting criticism on Facebook, Barrett was out meeting voters. She walked neighborhoods, attended community events and introduced herself directly: “Hello, I’m Melanie Barrett.” That matters in Oro Valley, where many residents are older and are accustomed to meeting candidates in person. They may not spend much time on social media or follow campaign posts on Facebook. Barrett understood that there is no substitute for personal contact, and her street-level campaigning helped turn familiarity into votes.
Voters’ message was clear: "No Change Needed"
Every election sends a message. The message from this one appears to be that most Oro Valley voters are satisfied with the Town’s direction and prefer steady, experienced leadership over promises of dramatic change. They know Melanie Barrett. They like what she has done. They think she is perfectly capable of leading Oro Valley into the future.
- - -
Tomorrow: The Five Factors That Shaped the Oro Valley Council Election
