Anticipates substantial enrollment decline until 2050Amphitheater Public Schools Superintendent Todd Jaeger told the Oro Valley Town Council last Wednesday that the district faces a prolonged and significant decline in student enrollment, with long-term implications for the size and structure of the school system. Citing demographic data, Jaeger said Arizona’s birth rate has dropped by about 38 percent over the past two decades—roughly double the national decline—and that district demographers do not expect that trend to reverse until around 2050. As a result, he said Amphitheater is likely to become a district roughly half its current size over time.
Don’t expect property taxes to decline
Jaeger explained that student enrollment—rather than the number of school buildings a district operates—is what drives school funding and property tax rates. Arizona’s public schools are funded through a per-student state equalization formula that combines local property taxes with state funding to provide a similar base level of funding per student across districts, regardless of local property wealth. As a result,
Public schools losing students to “school choice” options
Jaeger briefly referenced Arizona’s school voucher program, known as the Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) program, noting that the expansion of school choice options is one of several factors contributing to enrollment pressures facing public school districts. The ESA program allows families whose children are not enrolled in public schools to use up to 90 percent of the state funding that would otherwise have gone to their public school district for private school tuition or homeschooling expenses. Although Jaeger did not quantify the financial impact, ESA participation has grown rapidly since the program became universally available to K–12 families in 2022. Enrollment now exceeds 100,000 ESA students statewide, shifting a significant number of student dollars out of traditional public school districts.
Five other districts in Pima County have experienced enrollment declines but have avoided consolidation. Like Amphi, they have taken cost-containment measures to stabilize finances and maintain services, including staffing adjustments, slowing or freezing hiring, and repurposing underused space. Some, however, have also pursued enrollment-focused strategies, such as emphasizing open enrollment, developing specialized or magnet-style programs, or forming charter or community partnerships to keep campuses open.
Amphi’s approach has differed in that it has focused on addressing the cost side of declining enrollment, and not on strategies aimed at stabilizing or growing enrollment.
Copper Creek lease agreement with ASDB moved quickly
Jaeger appeared before Council at the request of a council member to provide an update on the closure of Copper Creek Elementary and related district actions. He told the Council that after the governing board voted to close Copper Creek as a neighborhood school, the district made a deliberate decision to ensure the campus would not sit vacant and instead pursued a lease that would keep the site in educational use. He said that following the board’s closure decision, the Arizona School for the Deaf and the Blind approached the district, toured several closing campuses, and ultimately entered into a five-year lease for the entire Copper Creek site, which was formally approved by the governing board in late January.
Jaeger appeared before Council at the request of a council member to provide an update on the closure of Copper Creek Elementary and related district actions. He told the Council that after the governing board voted to close Copper Creek as a neighborhood school, the district made a deliberate decision to ensure the campus would not sit vacant and instead pursued a lease that would keep the site in educational use. He said that following the board’s closure decision, the Arizona School for the Deaf and the Blind approached the district, toured several closing campuses, and ultimately entered into a five-year lease for the entire Copper Creek site, which was formally approved by the governing board in late January.
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