It's over
The election for three seats on the Oro Valley Town Council is over. There will be no November election as the vote for all candidates exceeded the threshold required for their election in July. Provisional votes are yet to be tallied; however, the result won’t change.
Candidates Mo Greene, Mary Murphy, and Elizabeth Robb will be seated on the council in November. Council Member and candidate Tim Bohen will not. The panel on the right shows the numbers as of yesterday.
Now here’s why
This election was Greene Versus Bohen for third place
This election was always going to be a battle between Council Members Mo Greene and Tim Bohen for the third and last seat. In 2020, they were on the same ballot. Greene received 292 more votes than Bohen, securing a second-place finish.
As of Saturday, Greene holds a 557-vote lead over Bohen, with only a handful of votes yet to be counted. Greene's lead has increased with every added tally. He gets 10% more votes than Bohen.
Greene did nothing in four years on the council to garner support from the non golf, non community center voters but, because of his focus, he was able to cobble together enough votes to win.
Bohen was not able to do that. He lacked the backing of any specific interest group or neighborhood. Although he made a difference by working with individuals, that approach alone is not sufficient for winning an election in Oro Valley. To secure additional votes, a candidate typically needs to align with a major cause such as pro-golf, pro-public safety, or pro-business. Bohen's focus on being pro-citizen, without aligning with any specific cause, ultimately led to his loss.
Murphy and Robb Were Likely Going to Be Elected
Though their efforts and campaign strategies played a crucial role in securing seats for Murphy and Robb, the battle between Greene and Bohen influenced voting significantly. Murphy was a candidate supported by Greene and his supporters. Murphy would garner every vote Greene received. She did even better than that by reaching broader community support by not aligning herself with developer interests, unlike Greene. In this election, one in four Bohen voters voted for her. Robb was going to receive every vote that Bohen got. In addition, Greene and his community wanted her to win rather than Bohen. One in three Greene voters voted for her.
This is not to say they didn't earn their victory
It is merely to note that they were the beneficiaries of the Greene-Bohen competition.
We will provide a further analysis of the election once the vote by precinct numbers are released by the county. We don't expect that for a couple of weeks.
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