Monday, July 13, 2020

Under-Voting Helps Your Preferred Candidates

Primary ballots in mail
The Pima County Recorder has mailed the ballots for the August primary. The ballot lists five Oro Valley council candidates.

You can vote for three. Should you?

Undervotes are common in Oro Valley council elections 
There is no requirement that you vote for three. You just can't vote for more than three.  The vote that you do not cast is called an "undervote."

Our analysis of Oro Valley election history reveals that the number of votes cast depends on the level of voter enthusiasm for the candidates.  The 2018 election resulted in a "sea change" on council.  99% of voters chose among six candidates.  They elected three new council candidates.

There was far less voter enthusiasm in 2016. There were six council candidates. 11% of the voters did not vote all three votes. Voters simply lacked enthusiasm for a second or third candidate. There were 4,438 undervotes in that election.

How undervoting helps your preferred candidate(s)
Voting for only those candidates you really want to represent you actually helps them win the election. Not simply because you voted for them; but because undervotes reduce the threshold to win a seat in August; and, if that does not happen, to qualify to be on the ballot in November.

The reason for this is that the number of votes needed to win or qualify decreases in direct proportion to the total number of votes cast. The threshold is determined by dividing the total number of ballots cast by the number of seats available. That total is then divided by 2.  The three candidates receiving the highest vote totals are declared winners if they received more votes than the threshold number of votes. As you can see from the example, undervotes can make a huge difference.
---
The county sent the ballots on July 8.  You can call (520) 724-4330) if you do not receive yours.