This is the first posting of our analysis of the 2018 Oro Valley Mayoral Election. There will be 5 in total, one each for the 5 factors that impacted the election
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Factor 5: This was a "straight-up" election
The 2018 Oro Valley election was marked with excellent voter turnout, led by an energized electorate. This election was the first since 2006 where two candidates faced-off in election without any intervening factors. It was a "straight up" election. The result: challenger and now Mayor-elect Joe Winfield garnered a whopping 59% of the vote.
The past 3 Mayoral elections (2010, 2014 and 2015) were tainted for three different reasons.
May 2010
Hiremath benefited from what we believe to have been "ballot harvesting". That is the practice of bringing batches of 'voted' mail-in ballots to the polls. It is now an illegal practice. These ballots are counted after the election. They are provisional ballots.
Recall that Hiremath defeated Mike Zinkin by 30 votes. Hiremath won only because provisional votes, those harvested and dropped at the polling places, broke almost entirely in Hiremath's favor. Strange?Were the ballots influenced in some fashion? Something was wrong, but it never was investigated.
August 2014
Hiremath benefited from a change in the timing of the election. The election was moved from February to August, per state law. Almost 4,000 fewer votes were cast in that election than in 2010. Most independent voters never received ballots. It was a partisan election. The ratio of votes cast in Hiremaths' favor, 62%, approximately mirrored the ratio of registered republicans to democrats in Oro Valley at that time.
August 2015
Hiremath benefited from voter confusion regarding Joe Winfield's withdrawal from the Mayoral race. Winfield had graciously withdrawn to allow support to coalesce around challenger Pat Straney. He withdrew after ballots were printed. Thus, his name was on the ballot. Hiremath barely earned 50% of the 14,800 mayoral votes cast.
The 2018 election was different story
This election was the first time that Hiremath faced a single candidate at a time when "ballot harvesting" was illegal! Add to this the fact that, by 2018, Oro Valley independent voters, with the help of the county recorder and substantial social media notice, actually knew they were supposed to request ballots. They did so. The result: Mayor-Elect Joe Winfield earned 59% of record number of more than 15,000 mayoral votes cast.
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Next up
Factor 4: You can "dress-up the pig" but it is still a pig
