Council Shreds General Plan Housing Study

Last month we published an article to caution all regarding a housing study the Town had commissioned. For a variety of reasons, we felt that the study had gone well beyond its stated intent, and that it was being used as a way make major changes in land use through the 2026 general plan. We also felt that the study was flawed for a variety of reasons.

Thus, the study's "doom and gloom conclusions" were predetermined

We learned at the study session of December 6 that our suspicions were correct.  The study was biased from inception: The consultant stated in the meeting that the scope of their study was to address "housing unaffordability issues and housing type gap issues". It was not to determine if there were such issues. Thus, their study conclusions were prejudiced from the start. This scope assignment came directly from town planning staff.

On the contrary, the study shows that the town is is already “…well positioned to meet Arizona legal requirements for the housing element of  the 2026 General Plan.” 

Vice Mayor Barrett opened the discussion of the study with barrels blazing. ‘I enjoyed a lot of the data that was presented and I think that there are some gaps in the data or places where the data needs to be updated. That would be useful and helpful for us in evaluating this; and I also felt that the doom and gloom that came out of some of this presentation was not justified or warranted by the data because there was a tremendous amount of good news for Oro Valley residents for our housing supply and even going into the next general plan.” [see our post tomorrow for the good news.]

The town does not have a residential housing gap

The consulting report fails to note that the town already has enough land zoned for single-family residential units to accommodate the study projection of housing needs through the year 2040. Barrett noted that, according to the study, the town already has land zoned for homes through 2040. The town has 3,114 units planned versus a 2040 study target of 3,100 units. 
The Oro Valley currently planned housing stock thru 2040 shows housing diversity 

As for diversity of housing, Barrett observed that 52.8% of future housing is going to be multi family without zoning any additional multi family. “So already compared to the Oro Valley housing supply that exists in multi family, we’re already going to be increasing that substantially by having a majority of our new housing units that come in till 2040 be multi -family.”
Housing affordability is no more of an issue in Oro Valley than in the Western US

Questioning the consultant separately, Council Member Jones-Ivey noted the housing trends of the younger generation, many of whom do not want to own homes for long periods. “Most of the people that I run into in this age group have the income, but they simply don’t want to be tied into on a dwelling for 20 or 30 years…People can lease for years.  I’m not seeing this trend as a part of your report at all.” As Vice Mayor Barrett noted: "I don't think there is a housing affordability gap compared to other locations [in the state]." 

Also, a study statement that police can not live in the town does not consider that Oro Valley Police are the highest paid in the state and one of the few police forces in the state to have a fully funded pension plan.

And that the report has many other failings including...

• Inconsistent basis of comparisons [Barrett]
• Failure to consider Oro Valley's unique geographic positioning [Nicolson; Bohen]
• Lack of learning from prior studies on housing, such as the 2020 Apartment Study [Bohen]
• An employee survey that is 85 of 10,000 employed in the town is not representative of anything. "What is represented here is simply not credible." [Winfield]
• Not factoring into their recommendations the survey results (report page 20) of what residents want [Barrett]
• Boilerplate comparisons of data from other communities

Even more studies coming

Economic Development Director Melcher stated that, at some point, the council will receive a comprehensive overview encompassing a retail gap analysis, a housing build-out study, a cost-benefit analysis, and future revenue projections. Melcher also noted that the town was awaiting the results of the housing study before commencing the retail analysis.

The good news?

Real LOVE tomorrow a list of good news hidden in the housing study.

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A Housing Study That Is Not Oro Valley

Jacobs' commissioned study calls for fundamental housing change

In June, we wrote that the Oro Valley Housing Study would be released in the fall. The study was initiated in 2020 under the guidance of the former Town manager, Mary Jacobs. The study's significance lies in its role as one factor that will be used in writing the housing element of the 2026 General Plan. A housing element must be in the plan because the town’s population will reach the 50,000-person threshold that’s required for such.

...Which would result in major land use and zoning change

Even more crucial is the fact that the housing study will play a pivotal role in shaping land use decisions in the 2026 General Plan, which will subsequently influence zoning regulations. Should the 2026 General Plan incorporate the recommendations from this study, significant zoning changes will occur.

  
Some believe that the study was biased from the start

On Monday, Take Back Oro Valley published an article expressing their belief that the study is biased. We had previously shared this concern, as we felt that the questions asked during the study process predisposed the results toward more clustered housing and lower-income housing. In other words, the study would have Oro Valley turn into something that it is not [see panel right].

Study opens a "can of worms"

Last night, the consultant, Elliot D Pollack & Company, presented the study to the Planning and Zoning Commission. They are Phoenix based and have no feeling for the uniqueness of Oro Valley. They don't know our history.

Several of the suggestions clearly fall outside the intended scope. Take, for instance, the proposal to conduct a study on converting commercial land into retail space. The consultant readily stated that this recommendation is out of the scope of the study.  However, they prepared the study under the direction of the town's planning and zoning staff.  

It's worth noting that this concept aligns closely with the preferences of the town's planning staff, who routinely grant approval for rezoning requests from commercial to residential land use.

Other out of scope recommendations include allowing 4-story apartment buildings... subsidized housing... manufactured homes. 

We've been down this road before when it comes to "land use"

According to Planner Bayer Vella, speaking at last night's meeting, the recommendations are secondary to the intent of the study, which was to collect data for the housing discussion within the general plan. However, it is expected that this discussion will evolve into a thorough review of land use, which will be incorporated into the general plan. If this revision is accepted, it will lead to the subsequent rezoning of areas....some next to your house.

The 2001-02 General Plan underwent numerous revisions related to land use within the general plan. It was modified repeatedly until it received voter approval in a substantially altered land use plan in 2005, driven by substantial resident dissatisfaction with land use. This process indeed spanned five years. Read about the resident angst and what happened on pages 105-107 in Oro Valley: The First FiftyYears by James Williams.

Our View: The housing study is a trojan horse

In our view, the purpose of the study is to provide the planning department with the means to embed in the 2026 General Plan significant changes in land use. The ultimate aim is to facilitate the construction of additional homes and apartments on existing commercial zoned parcels.

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Some Thoughts Until September

Here’s what to look for this summer
Every other year LOVE takes a summer break. It happens when there is no town election. Fortunately, this year, there is none….though we do expect a “doozy” next year as there will be three council seats up for election.

While we are away, however, we continue to follow Oro Valley happenings.We will do that again this year. We will report events to you when we return in September. We do have a list of  things to keep an eye on while we’re away. 

Here are some of the things we expect to be reporting about in September

Making the Naranja Park entrance pedestrian safe now

This is our number 1 priority. The current pedestrian situation is completely unacceptable. The town has said that they are planning to do some things. We figure that they should have done a lot by September 12, our return date.

Any decision the council made regarding plans for the Vistoso TrailsNature Preserve

The town has completed a Master Plan study on to build the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve. At one point, the study’s findings became so challenging that the lead outside consultant on the project quit. To many residents in the area, the final plan, which will be reviewed with council, is too elaborate and far more invasive to life for those who live around the golf course.

Jeff Wilkins

Jeff Wilkins will have completed his first quarter as Oro Valley Town Manager. We wil (try to) interview Wilkins to report his first impressions of our town.

Outrageous Giveaway 2

The Council may consider yet another investment in the Oro Valley Marketplace (aka Oro Valley Village Center). This one for about $12 million. They are under no obligation to do so; but town staff has been in negotiations with the developer and center owner Town West for 18 months to do just that. It will be very interesting to see how Council handles this.
 

The “Big Sports Complex” Affair

Then, of course, there is the matter of the Oro Valley Church of the Nazarene (OVCN) wanting to obliterate the lifestyle of those who live in the “Original Oro Valley.” The project is a major sports complex at their Concordia/Buena Vista location. It requires council approval of zoning changes to make this a reality. We don’t know when the next hearing is on this; but it is a huge problem for those who need to protect the lovely lifestyle that area affords.

The Oro Valley Housing Survey

Town staff has completed a survey of town housing needs. Many believe that the survey questions biased responses to favor more apartments…more congestion in Oro Valley… a more “balanced”community.  Regardless, the allure of federal funds that will become available to the town as it grows to subsidize low income housing will become very alluring. You ought to be concerned if you want Oro Valley to remain a single family residential community. As one resident wrote: “Federal funds may dictate “Section 8” to achieve the - financially attainable housing - which is not a fit for this community.” Beware: That from which you wanted to escape by moving to Oro Valley may follow you here.

Use of potable water on town owned parks and the Pusch Ridge Golf Course

The town continues to use potable water for irrigation at Riverfront and Kreigh Parks, at the Pusch Ridge Golf Course, and in serving CDO high school. Reclaimed water would be a better solution. We think, but we don’t know, that the cost of bringing reclaimed water to these facilities is prohibitive. The town has discussed further treating the reclaimed water, purifying it, and inserting it into the potable water supply. It’s all talk at this point but something does need to be done.

We will also keep an eye on other things like

…the July court appearance of Sabrina Garcia, the person who was driving the car that killed a teenager and her half sister on St. Patrick’s Day. It happened near the entrance to Naranja Park…thus, our obsession with getting the town to do something to improve pedestrian safety now.

Meanwhile, enjoy your summer.

We certainly do plan to do so

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